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Predicting Forest Succession in New England

Study by Julie Vallimont at Harvard University predicting forest succession in New England, analyzing causes of disturbance, data collection, and simulation models to predict future forest landscapes and species composition.

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Predicting Forest Succession in New England

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  1. PREDICTION OF FOREST SUCCESSION IN NEW ENGLAND Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101 Harvard University January 2005 Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  2. Forest Succession Secondary Succession Land use history in MA 1700 • Causes of disturbance • Fire • Storms • Diseases, insects • Pollution • Invasives • Climate change 1830 1915 GOAL: Predict succession Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University Harvard Forest dioramas

  3. Data Collection / Results • 33 LTR plots at Harvard Forest • Data already taken on overstory species (>10 cm dbh) • Measured understory species (<10 cm dbh): - Diameter - Species - Number of stems - RO, RM, EH, RP Photos by Julie Vallimont - EH, RM, AB, YB Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  4. SORTIE Simulation Models BEFORE -Baseline • Beech • Hemlock • Some maple, oak Undisturbed 500 years Disturbed 500 years Small clear-cuts 500 years High mortality 500 years • Mostly beech • Less hemlock • Birch • Beech • Less hemlock • Beech • Birch • Little hemlock • Maple • Cherry • Little hemlock Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  5. Conclusions/Recommendations • If left undisturbed: late-successional species (beech, hemlock) • Many other variables: • wooly adelgid (lose hemlocks) • invasives • air pollution • climate change • Disturbance would favor early successional species (birches, oaks, maples) • “Unraveling” of forest ecosystem? • Hard to predict – improve models • Work toward eliminating as many threats as possible • Acknowledgements: • Moorcroft lab: Paul Moorcroft, • Marco Albani, Oliver Soong • Wofsy lab • Harvard Forest Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

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