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PREDICTION OF FOREST SUCCESSION IN NEW ENGLAND

PREDICTION OF FOREST SUCCESSION IN NEW ENGLAND. Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101 Harvard University January 2005. Forest Succession. Secondary Succession. Land use history in MA. 1700. Causes of disturbance Fire Storms Diseases, insects Pollution Invasives Climate change. 1830. 1915.

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PREDICTION OF FOREST SUCCESSION IN NEW ENGLAND

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  1. PREDICTION OF FOREST SUCCESSION IN NEW ENGLAND Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101 Harvard University January 2005 Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  2. Forest Succession Secondary Succession Land use history in MA 1700 • Causes of disturbance • Fire • Storms • Diseases, insects • Pollution • Invasives • Climate change 1830 1915 GOAL: Predict succession Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University Harvard Forest dioramas

  3. Data Collection / Results • 33 LTR plots at Harvard Forest • Data already taken on overstory species (>10 cm dbh) • Measured understory species (<10 cm dbh): - Diameter - Species - Number of stems - RO, RM, EH, RP Photos by Julie Vallimont - EH, RM, AB, YB Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  4. SORTIE Simulation Models BEFORE -Baseline • Beech • Hemlock • Some maple, oak Undisturbed 500 years Disturbed 500 years Small clear-cuts 500 years High mortality 500 years • Mostly beech • Less hemlock • Birch • Beech • Less hemlock • Beech • Birch • Little hemlock • Maple • Cherry • Little hemlock Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

  5. Conclusions/Recommendations • If left undisturbed: late-successional species (beech, hemlock) • Many other variables: • wooly adelgid (lose hemlocks) • invasives • air pollution • climate change • Disturbance would favor early successional species (birches, oaks, maples) • “Unraveling” of forest ecosystem? • Hard to predict – improve models • Work toward eliminating as many threats as possible • Acknowledgements: • Moorcroft lab: Paul Moorcroft, • Marco Albani, Oliver Soong • Wofsy lab • Harvard Forest Predicting Forest Succession - Julie Vallimont ENVT E-101, Harvard University

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