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降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例

降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例. 報告者：陳麒任 指導教授：董家鈞. Introduction. Classification of landslide assessment: Qualitative analysis Empirical method Quantitative analysis Statistic method Discriminant analysis Logistic regression Conditional Probability Approach Artificial intelligence Fuzzy Theory

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降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例

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  1. 降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例 報告者：陳麒任 指導教授：董家鈞

  2. Introduction Classification of landslide assessment: • Qualitative analysis • Empirical method • Quantitative analysis • Statistic method • Discriminant analysis • Logistic regression • Conditional Probability Approach • Artificial intelligence • Fuzzy Theory • neural network • Deterministic analysis • Infinite –slope stability analysis

  3. Deterministic analysis of rain fall-induced landslides Cohesion Lab test Lab test Back calculate Friction angle Back analysis of strength has advantages over lab testing in that the scale is much larger. (Gilbert ,1998) hydraulic conductivity Deterministic analysis hydraulic conductivity Soil depth Soil depth DEM DEM unit weight of soil unit weight of soil Slope Slope Deterministic analysis Predicted landslide inventory Parameters In situ test or Empirical methods In situ test or Empirical methods Rainfall intensity Rainfall intensity Godt et al. (2008) Remote sensing Remote sensing Observed landslide inventory

  4. Efficiency: (+)/(+++) Sensitivity: /(+) Specificity: /(+) Observed Predicted Confusion matrix Cohesion =1 to 50 kPa Friction angle=1 ° to 50 ° Deterministic analysis trial and error Predicted landslide inventory Observed landslide inventory

  5. ROC Criterion Sensitivity: /(+) Maximum Efficiency(林衍丞，2009) 。 Maximum AUC (林衍丞，2009) 。 Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90%(中興工程顧問社，2004)。 FS=1 FS=1.5 FS=0.5 Sensitivity Maximum Develop Sensitivity Maximum the average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity 林衍承(2009) Specificity

  6. 100% Observed Predicted Observed Predicted

  7. Minimum distance between the corner(1,1,1) and the plane.

  8. Objective Compare results of each criterion Back calculate the parameters (friction angle and cohesion)

  9. Rainfall-induced landslide model • This research use TRIGRS, a Fortran program developed by USGS. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability. • Parameters: precipitation intensity, slope, soil depth, initial water-table depth, saturated vertical hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic diffusivity, cohesion for effective stress, angle of internal friction for effective stress, total unit weight of soil.

  10. Theoretical Basis • Infinite-slope stability • Landslide with planar failure surfaces. • Slide depth is much smaller than length and width. where c’ is soil cohesion for effective stress, Φ’ is the soil friction angle for effective stress, γw is unit weight of groundwater, and γs is soil unit weight, β is slope angle, ψ is pressure head.

  11. Transient vertical groundwater Richards equation coordinate system One-dimensional form (linear diffusion equation) (initial condition) (boundary condition)

  12. Combined Iverson(2000) and Savage et al.(2003).

  13. Flow Chart Cohesion=1,50 Friction angle=1,50 Observed landslide inventory Criterion Sensitivity Efficiency Specificity Predicted landslide inventory Cohesion Friction angle TRIGRS Parameter Discussion

  14. Study Area

  15. Input Data Slope Soil depth

  16. Input parameters Storm event Iverson (2000)、吳佳郡(2006) 、中興工程顧問公司(2004) 、Paolo (2001)和Lancaster (2002) 2001/7/29 ~ 2001/7/30

  17. Result of maximum AUC criterion Five largest AUC parameters Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 1467. It’s hard to distinguish the most suitable parameter.

  18. Landslide inventory Five largest Efficiency parameters Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 489. Cohesion=47 kPa Friction angle=39 degree

  19. Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90% Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 18

  20. Develop Sensitivity criterion Five largest Develop Sensitivity parameters Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 7

  21. Cohesion=23kPa Friction angle=32degree

  22. The average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity criterion Five largest value parameters Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 77.

  23. Cohesion=20kPa Friction angle=29degree

  24. Minimum distance between the (1,1,1) and the plane Five largest value parameters Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 6.

  25. C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90% D: Develop Sensitivity E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane

  26. C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90% D: Develop Sensitivity E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane

  27. C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90% D: Develop Sensitivity E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane

  28. Future work Using Bayesian inference to calculate the probability of parameters.

  29. Thanks for your attention

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