Sources of uncertainty EC

Jan 01, 2013

570 likes | 770 Views

Outline. The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) problemSources of forecast uncertainties and chaotic behaviourEnsemble prediction as a practical tool for probabilistic predictionThe ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. . 1. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The behavior of the atmosphere is

Share Presentation

Embed Code

Link

tamarr

Download Presentation

Sources of uncertainty EC

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

Management of Uncertainty

Management of Uncertainty . Yossi Sheffi. ESD.260J/1.260J/15.770J. Outline. Forecasting Managing uncertainty Aggregation/risk pooling Postponement Mixed strategies Lead time management. Supply Chains are Tough to Manage.

560 views • 26 slides

Sources of uncertainty and current practice for addressing them: analytical perspective

Analytical perspective. Uncertainty about quantitative measurementsChemical, microbiological, biotechnological analytes.What analysts won't tell youWhat analysts will tell you but you shouldn't necessarily take on face valueUncertainty about qualitative detection. Quantitative analytical unc

379 views • 24 slides

Uncertainty surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty

Uncertainty surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty. Todd Little. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra. IEEE Software, May/June 2006. When will we get the requirements?. All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time.

587 views • 30 slides

Overview of EC

174 views • 10 slides

Type of Uncertainty

types of ambiguity:nonspecificity in evidence: connected with the size of the subsets that are designated by a fuzzy measure as prospective locations of the element in questions. The larger the subsets, the less specific the characterization.dissonance in evidence: exhibited by disjoint subsets of

1.84k views • 158 slides

Sources of Uncertainty and Current Practices for Addressing Them: Exposure Perspective

Sources of Uncertainty and Current Practices for Addressing Them: Exposure Perspective. Clarence W. Murray, III, Ph.D. Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition June 15, 2011. Outline. Definition of terms Dietary exposure model Sources of uncertainty in a dietary exposure assessment

457 views • 30 slides

Propagation of Uncertainty

Propagation of Uncertainty. Jake Blanchard Spring 2010. Introduction. We’ve discussed single-variable probability distributions This lets us represent uncertain inputs But what of variables that depend on these inputs? How do we represent their uncertainty?

659 views • 49 slides

Uncertainty

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Uncertainty. Pascal. “It is not certain that everything is uncertain”. Agenda. Uncertainty !. A perplexing thought?. “If we can’t be certain about future consequences of alternatives, how can we be confident we choose best?”. What to do?.

384 views • 26 slides

Major sources of uncertainty: Modeling of environmental pathways (atmospheric models etc )

Major sources of uncertainty: Modeling of environmental pathways (atmospheric models etc ) Exposure-response functions Monetary valuation Statistical analysis Reference :

424 views • 31 slides

ATLAS Higgs Search Strategy and Sources of Systematic Uncertainty

ATLAS Higgs Search Strategy and Sources of Systematic Uncertainty. Jae Yu For the ATLAS Collaboration 23 June, 2010. Proposed Experiment Portion of the Note. Search strategies in ATLAS and CMS Split into three periods S hort term – 7TeV @1fb-1

185 views • 10 slides

Quantifying uncertainty sources in hydrological climate-impact studies

Quantifying uncertainty sources in hydrological climate-impact studies. Thomas Bosshard , Sven Kotlarski , Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Carambia , Peter Krahe , Klaus Görgen , Christoph Schär. Motivation. Climate models (CM). Statistical Post-Processing (PP). Hydrological model (HM).

269 views • 13 slides

EC Tier 1 uncertainty analysis

EC Tier 1 uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty workshop Bernd Gugele, ETC-ACC 5 September 2005. Availability of Table 6.1 of the Tier 1 uncertainty analysis as of 15 April 2005. For 13 MS Tier 1 uncertainty estimates available Four MS 2003, eight MS 2002, one MS 2001

366 views • 18 slides

Sources of Uncertainty (from Morgan and Henrion )

Sources of Uncertainty (from Morgan and Henrion ). Jake Blanchard Spring 2010. Types of events. Subjective probability distributions are only suitable for certain types of events Empirical Quantities – measurable properties of real-world systems

142 views • 5 slides

Fundamentals of EC

Fundamentals of EC. Chapter Contents. Definitions Frameworks Classifications Referenced disciplines Brief history Benefits Business Drivers Organizational responses. Definitions of EC (1). Turban, Lee, King, Chung

450 views • 32 slides

Problems of Uncertainty

Problems of Uncertainty. Leon Walras. Walras wanted to show evidence that free markets provide the optimal allocation of prices and factors by mathematical methods. Beside non-realistic assumptions the model can be rejected by „Goedeler's incompleteness theorem“.

330 views • 21 slides

Uncertainty in Uncertainty

Uncertainty in Uncertainty. Uncertainty in Uncertainty. Within a factor of 2. Impact of noise on precision; applications to GPS data in New Madrid Seismic Zone. GIPSY Processing of GPS; central US Short tutorial Estimating the background noise from GPS

669 views • 42 slides

Doctrinal sources of legal uncertainty in both Art. 82 EC and Sec. 2 ShA

The deep roots of legal uncertainty. Doctrinal sources of legal uncertainty in both Art. 82 EC and Sec. 2 ShA. Alexander Morell MPI Bonn. Intro. The Stereotypes: Application of Antitrust law: US economics based, EU conduct based More economic approach => legal uncertainty

269 views • 14 slides

CT2 : Assessing sources of uncertainty in ocean analysis and forecasts

Thor annual meeting 2009, Paris. CT2 : Assessing sources of uncertainty in ocean analysis and forecasts.

126 views • 6 slides

Sources of uncertainty (EC/TC/PR/RB-L1)

(Magritte). Sources of uncertainty (EC/TC/PR/RB-L1). Roberto Buizza European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (http://www.ecmwf.int/staff/roberto_buizza/). Outline. The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) problem Sources of forecast uncertainties and chaotic behaviour

569 views • 44 slides

UNCERTAINTY OF QIBLAH

UNCERTAINTY OF QIBLAH. I have NO IDEA at all about WHICH DIRECTION to pray and my NAMAAZ IS BECOMING QADHA ! Help!! What should I do?. Don’t panic! Just PRAY IN ANY DIRECTION . However, for your next Namaaz, if there IS ENOUGH TIME , you will have to PRAY IN ALL 4 DIRECTIONS.

144 views • 4 slides

Management of Uncertainty

Management of Uncertainty. Yossi Sheffi. ESD.260J/1.260J/15.770J. Outline. Forecasting Managing uncertainty Aggregation/risk pooling Postponement Mixed strategies Lead time management. Supply Chains are Tough to Manage.

352 views • 26 slides

Sources of Uncertainty and Current Practice for Addressing Them: Toxicological Perspective

Sources of Uncertainty and Current Practice for Addressing Them: Toxicological Perspective. David A. Bussard U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Basics of Most Current Practice: The “Question” Being Answered.

210 views • 15 slides

More Related