Modeling Dynamic Resource Demand with Portfolio Simulator

1. Modeling Dynamic Resource Demand with Portfolio Simulator Melinda (Durgin) Rottas and Mike Vanderspool Pfizer Global Research & Development

2. Outline • Introduction to Pfizer • Description of PDM • Forecasting PDM’s support of Drug Discovery • Ann Arbor PDM Case Study • Previous Approach: Activity-Based Project Planning (a.k.a. “Study Level Planning”) • Current Approach: Use of Promodel • Moving Forward

3. Welcome to Pfizer We are the world’s leading healthcare company • A 155-year history originating in Brooklyn, NY • A market capitalization ranked 4th worldwide • Over $45 billion in annual sales in over 150 countries • 122,000 colleagues worldwide • The largest R&D budget in the world at nearly $8 billion

4. Our Vision “Life is our life’s work” Our Purpose We dedicate ourselves to humanity’s quest for longer, healthier, happier lives through innovation in pharmaceutical, consumer, and animal health products. We will become the world’s most valued company to patients, customers, colleagues, investors, business partners, and the communities where we work and live. Our Mission

5. Central Nervous System Ophthalmology Cardiovascular Respiratory Infectious Disease/HIV Diabetes Endocrinology Oncology Pain/Inflammation Urogenital/Gyn. 5 Most Valued to Our Patients

6. Worldwide Research Sites Kalamazoo, MI Ann Arbor, MI Sandwich, UK Cambridge , MA Amboise, France St. Louis, MO Nagoya, Japan New London, CT La Jolla, CA Groton, CT

7. Pfizer Global Research & Development • Pfizer Global Research & Development (PGRD) • Research • Development • Pharmacokinetics, Dynamics, and Metabolism (PDM) • Operating at 7 sites globally • Purpose: “PDM delivers the pharmacokinetic, dynamic and metabolism knowledge essential to Pfizer's discovery and development of innovative, highly valued therapies that improve health and quality of life”

8. Millions of Compounds Screened ~100 Discovery Approaches High Risk Process 12-15 years, $800MM+ Preclinical Pharmacology Preclinical Safety 1 –2 Products Clinical Pharmacology & Safety Discovery Exploratory Development Full Development Phase I Phase II Phase III 0 15 10 5 Idea Drug 12 - 15 Years Drug Development: Multiple Approaches!

9. DRUG IDEA Screen Lead Candidate Ph. I Ph. II Ph. III NDA PDM Contributes at Every Stage • Development Support: • ADME Package • DDI • Enzymology • Toxicology Support • Discovery Support: • PK/PD Modeling • ADME Characteristics • SAR Guidance • Screening Compounds • Clinical Bioanalysis • Definitive Studies • Biomarkers • Mechanistic Studies

10. Discovery Support Development Support Screening Support Multi-Project Related Operational Support Total Capacity Total Demand Absence From Work Forecasting PDM Resources • Enterprise Project Management (EPM) Demand vs. Capacity Forecasting

11. Candidate PDM Support of Discovery Screen Lead IDEA SAR Support Early Safety Studies PDM Discovery Contributions Constantly Changing! Activity Tested ADME Testing Screening PK/PD Compounds Synthesized

12. Forecasting Discovery Support Challenges faced in forecasting PDM resources required for Discovery Support: • Discovery is a dynamic organization! • Project needs are constantly changing • Study plans are changing weekly • Attrition • Varied levels of PDM support required for projects • Multiple projects needing support simultaneously • Thousands of compounds per single approach

13. DRUG IDEA Screen Lead Candidate Ph. I Ph. II Ph. III NDA Ann Arbor Case Study • Forecasting PDM resources required to support projects in the Discovery Stages • Previous Approach: Activity-Based Project Planning (a.k.a. “Study Level Planning”) • Current Approach: Use of ProModel’s Portfolio Simulator • Unique application of tool for Planning & Forecasting

14. Study Level Planning • Began in 2002 with Microsoft Project • One project plan for each Discovery Program • Switched to Artemis Project View in 2003 • Goals • Provide short-term planning and forecasting information (up to ~9 months) • Track number and type of studies being performed for historical reference

15. Study Level Planning • Challenges • The quantity of studies • Frequent program strategy changes • Inability to forecast very far into the future • “Optimistic Nature” of Project Leaders • Extremely labor intensive • Time consuming

16. Study Level Planning Output

17. Study Level Planning Conclusions • Level of confidence confined to 3 month window • Not providing added value • Resource Managers had their “finger on the pulse” of the resources in the short-term • Forecasts were just confirming what the Resource Managers observed • We were missing the critical 3 to 9 month (or more) resource forecasts • What can we do to close the gap/complete the picture?

18. Is Portfolio Simulator an option? • Already being used in PDM and other Departments throughout Pfizer for long-term strategic resource modeling • Global PDM successfully using for Strategic Resource Utilization analyses (long-term capacity management) • The Ann Arbor Discovery organization had been using Portfolio Simulator for more than three years to maintain and model their local portfolio and resource needs • The Global Discovery organization had begun to use Portfolio Simulator to generate a “Global Discovery Portfolio” • Could it be used as a Short-Term Planning & Forecasting tool also? Let’s see...

19. Populating Portfolio Simulator • Resources were originally loaded at an aggregate level for strategic modeling • based originally on study-level data and bottom-up analysis • Broke Resources into individual Resource Work Types (individual set of skill sets) • Most resources were loaded as Fixed Units, some were treated as Fixed Work • No range in work effort; variability depended on portfolio’s cycle time variability • Opportunities for future refinement

20. Portfolio Simulator Output Portfolio Simulator Output versus Study Level Planning Output Historical short-term “spike” in demand

21. Portfolio Simulator Output Forecasted versus Actuals Reported

22. Portfolio Simulator • Strong correlation between FTEs forecasted via Portfolio Simulator and Actual FTEs reported • Decision made to incorporate Portfolio Simulator as the tool for Planning & Forecasting of PDM resources to support projects in the Discovery stages

23. Integrating Results • Output from Portfolio Simulator integrated into EPM (Microsoft Project planning tool) • FTE output converted to hours and put into MSP plans • Attributes in Portfolio carried over as attributes in MSP plans • By Resource Work Type (individual set of skill sets) • Possibility of future “Auto Load” from Portfolio Simulator to MSP Plans

24. DRUG IDEA Screen Lead Candidate Ph.I Ph. II Ph. III NDA Discovery Support Screening Support Multi-Project Related Operational Support Absence From Work Integrating Results • Result is a holistic resource forecast for all aspects of Drug Discovery and Development Portfolio Simulator Activity-Based MSP Plans Development Support Total Capacity Total Demand MSP Plans based on History

25. Benefits to using Portfolio Simulator • Portfolio is shared among various Departments, including PDM • Creates Partnership and Alignment • Fosters understanding of “partner” departments’ resources • Common attrition is accounted for • PDM can evaluate/view the Portfolio based on a variety of attributes

26. Sample Output

27. Sample Output

28. Conclusions • ProModel’s Portfolio Simulator software provides • An efficient and accurate short-term planning and forecasting tool to help guide tactical resourcing decisions • A modeling tool to facilitate longer-term strategic resource modeling discussions.

29. Acknowledgments • ProModel • Dan Hickman • Brian Hogan • Keith Vadas • Pfizer PDM Business Managers • Numerous Pfizer Colleagues

30. Questions / Discussion

31. Back-Up Slides