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The many unknowns of SEE societies ’ attitudes towards reforms

SEESOX – BoG Conference Achieving sustainable growth in SEE Athens, 2011-02-11. The many unknowns of SEE societies ’ attitudes towards reforms. Georgy Ganev Centre for liberal strategies, Sofia. Defining the problem and the goal of the talk.

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The many unknowns of SEE societies ’ attitudes towards reforms

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  1. SEESOX – BoG Conference Achieving sustainable growth in SEE Athens, 2011-02-11 The many unknowns of SEE societies’ attitudes towards reforms GeorgyGanev Centre for liberal strategies, Sofia

  2. Defining the problem and the goal of the talk • The task at hand is to think about building support for reforms in SEE • The main problem is still defining the problem, devising solutions will come later • I will try to peek at what the problem might be by asking specific questions about SEE societies in light of the present crisis SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 1

  3. Q1: is the previous growth episode sustainable/repeatable? • If yes, then it will not be easy to convince the SEE public in the need of reform. • If not, then this has to be clearly communicated, as painful as the bad news might be. • (I firmly believe that the present Prime Minister of Greece is a genuine leader in this respect) SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 2

  4. Q2: If the model has to be modified, which are the important dimensions? • Most probably the answers will be country-specific, but there are at least three common things: • All SEE countries need better human capital to grow • All need more competition in internal markets • All need better spending states • Framed in this manner, the challenges are all positive and have the potential to generate support. SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 3

  5. Q3: What is the general attitude of the SEE societies towards reforms? • Important starting point: we don’t know! • More specifically: are they tired or afraid of reforms? These are two very different attitudes. • This question is important in terms of practical politics. • It is also important in terms of devising policies. • It is also important in terms of identification of social groups in favor of reforms. SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 4

  6. Last question: Is the present crisis a good opportunity? • The crisis came from outside the region. • As a result people may feel it is a matter of waiting for it to pass rather than changing • It definitely exposed internal weaknesses, but the SEE publics may need convincing on this • Both the losers and the winners from the crisis must be addressed in a positive manner: • Resolving issues and offering opportunities for the first • Expanding opportunities for the second SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 5

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