GW University Seminar Series on Sustainability

1. GW University Seminar Series on Sustainability Jonathan P. Deason, Ph.D., P.E. Environmental and Energy Management Program School of Engineering and Applied science October 23, 2008 Sustainability Research & Education in the Environmental & Energy Management Program

2. Recent Sustainability-Focused Research Projects

3. Dr. Elvin Yuzugullu SenTech Corporation Project #1Hydrogen Production Alternatives: Resolving Disparities and Examining the Stability of Decision Making Amongst Divergent Stakeholders

4. Summary • Determination of national energy objectives hierarchy • Assessment of utility functions among disparate stakeholders • Assessment of capability of MCDM to facilitate convergence of disparate viewpoints

5. Development of Objectives Hierarchy • Based on literature survey, an illustrative objectives hierarchy was presented to SMEs, with criteria considered relevant • SMEs responded to survey in order to determine objectives hierarchy, based on their knowledge and experience • Decision makers also asked to rank the criteria they have determined

6. Selection of Criteria • Objectives hierarchy preferences indicated by decision makers analyzed and organized • Rankings provided by decision makers • A set of relevant and important criteria, with optimum level of detail determined

7. Specification of Weights Second survey presented to decision makers in several rounds: • Provide judgments on weights for the criteria • Consider judgments of other decision makers • $/kg H2 values presented for to assist judgments

8. Model Evaluation • Test beds for model evaluation: • Steam methane reformation of natural gas • Wind electrolysis • Data from economic, life-cycle environmental and environmental valuation studies • Interactions with SMEs to obtain judgment on key aspects of model

9. Published Results Yuzugullu, E. and Deason, J.P, “Structuring Objectives to Facilitate Convergence of Divergent Opinion in Hydrogen Production Decisions,” Energy Policy Journal, 35 (2007), pp. 452-460

10. Dr. Laura Verduzco Chevron Corporation Project #2 Closing the Gap Between Socioeconomic and Financial Implications of Residential and Community Level Hydrogen–Based Energy Systems: Incentives Needed for a Bridge to the Future

11. Summary • National Academy of Engineering (2004): “…in the committee’s vision of a possible hydrogen future, the demand for hydrogen will likely be met using distributed production during the first couple of decades of transition.” • Problem: How to determine (1) optimal scale of distributed hydrogen production and (2) optimal level of incentives that should be put into place to encourage small-scale production facilities • Research Approach: Multi-aspect analyses of three major production alternatives: conventional (baseline), Home Refueling Units and Neighborhood/CommunityRefueling Units

12. HRU and NRU Prototypes Home Energy Station Prototype Solar Powered Water Electrolyzing Hydrogen Station

13. Comparison of NPVs Using Simulation Calculate multiple scenarios by repeatedly sampling values from the probability distributions

14. Comparing the Results Offer $1500 in tax credits? This is what the developer pays How can we make options two and three more attractive for the developer? Economic incentives: tax credits, subsidies, etc. …

15. Sensitivity Analysis Model uncertainty of the critical variables Capital Investment Tax Incentives $500 $1000 $1500

16. Published Results Verduzco, Laura E., Duffey, M.R. and Deason. J.P., “H2Power: Development of a Methodology to Calculate Life Cycle Costing of Small and Medium-Scale Hydrogen Systems,” Energy Policy Journal, accepted for publication on April 24, 2006

17. Dr. Michael Helwig National Renewable Energy Laboratory Project #3The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13149: Proposed Compliance Strategies and Process Improvements for Federal Agencies

18. Summary • Problem: Twenty agencies examined; nine out of compliance; “large” agencies tend to be less compliant • Research Approach: Development of tiered integer optimization programs to maximize EPAct AFV credits, subject to budget constraints, alternative fuel availability, vehicle availability, fleet needs, etc.

19. Agency Compliance

20. Solution: Tiered Set of “Smart” Optimization Programs Integer optimization programs that maximize EPAct AFV credits, subject to: • Budget constraints • Alternative fuel and vehicle availability • Fleet needs/desires

21. Published Results Helwig, M. and Deason, J.P., “The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13149: Proposed Compliance Strategies and Process Improvements for Federal Agencies,” Energy Policy Journal, 35 (2007), pp. 2,912-2,924

22. Current Sustainability-Focused Research Projects

23. A Predictive Risk Modeling System for the Management of Small-Scale Water and Wastewater Facilities: Toward Long-Term Sustainability of Our National Parks

24. A Decision-Aiding Model for Leaking Underground Storage Tank Remediation Programs

25. Social, Economic, and Environmental Sustainability Metrics for Large Organizations

26. Comparative Analysis of the Use of Quantitative Risk Assessment in Environmental Applications Involving Radiological Hazards at U.S. Federal Government Agencies

27. A Linear Programming Model to Support Development and Maintenance of a Solar Grand Plan Deployment Schedule

28. Analysis of Solar Energy Transition Potential of Department of Defense Facilities and Non-Tactical Vehicles

29. Discussion