Does Crime take the Metro?

1. Does Crime take the Metro? Kyle Scholz - Public Policy M224A

2. Project Goal • Determine whether or not a mass transit system exports crime from highrisk to low risk areas.

3. Method • Study the three years before and after the expansion of the Metro Red Line to Hollywood (in 1999/2000) • Use results to predict the effect of the Expo (Aqua) Line to Culver City

6. *Type I Crimes include: Homicide, Rape, Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Vehicle Theft

8. Crime Summary • One low crime area increased in crime • Onelow crime area decreased in crime • Onehigh crime area increased in crime • One high crime area decreased in crime • So what can we discern from this mixed result?

9. Crime Analysis • If we ignore the anomalous Northeast area (because it has only one stop in its far corner) • We can see that the effect of the red line is the opposite of what the “crime exporting” theory predicted • The high crime origin of the line at Rampart dramatically increased in crime • The lower crime destinations (Hollywood and North Hollywood) actually decreased in crime

10. Possible Explanations • Coincidence • Very likely, but also very uninteresting for this project • Preference • Criminals may prefer above-ground light rail over Red line’s subway, for ease of entry/exit • Economics • Red line extension may allow lawful workers to commute out of the Rampart district and bring money home • If more money came into the Rampart district, criminals may have no need to ride the Metro to find victims • We can test this by seeing the results of the Red line on the local economy…..

13. Income Summary • Lowest income area increased income • Upper income areas decreased income • Why is this so, and how can it explain the crime trend?

14. Income Analysis • The installation of the metro Red Line extension coincided with the beginning of a increase in median incomes of up to 50% in the high crime Rampart area • It also coincided with a decrease in median incomes across the lower crime Hollywood corridor • These could be a result of increased commuting by lawful workers from Rampart to Hollywood: • Rampart residents can bring wages home from Hollywood, increasing median income. • Hollywood residents must compete with new commuters, decreasing their median income.

15. Income vs Crime • Increasing the median income in the already-high crime Rampart area provides an added incentive for criminals to continue (or increase) the amount of crime there.

17. Google API • To access: • http://kylejscholz.bol.ucla.edu/maproomfinal.html

19. Areal Weighted Average Model

21. Crime Predictions • If the pattern seen at the Red Line extension occurs at the Expo Line, we can expect that: • Crime will increase at the downtown (northeast) end of the Expo line, wherecrime is already the highest. • Crime will decrease at the Culver City (southwest) end of the Expo line, where crime is already the lowest. CRIME CRIME

23. Crime Predictions • If the pattern seen at the Red Line extension occurs at the Expo Line, we can expect that: • Income will decrease at the Culver City (southwest) end of the Expo line, where income is currently the highest. • Income will increase at the downtown (northeast) end of the Expo line, where income is currently the lowest. INCOME INCOME

24. Conclusion • The historical example of the Red line extension showed that the installation of a transit system can coincide with: • Income increasing conservatively • Poor areas increase in income, perhaps due to increased commuting • Rich areas decrease in income, perhaps due to competition for jobs with commuters • Crime increasing non-conservatively • High crime areas become even more violent • Low crime areas become even less violent • Possibly a result of the income trends above • If this pattern holds true for the Expo Line: • Culver City will have less crime, but lower incomes • Downtown will have more crime, but higher incomes

25. Questions?