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Actuarial Science Meets Financial Economics

Actuarial Science Meets Financial Economics. Buhlmann’s classifications of actuaries Actuaries of the first kind - Life Deterministic calculations Actuaries of the second kind - Casualty Probabilistic methods Actuaries of the third kind - Financial Stochastic processes.

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Actuarial Science Meets Financial Economics

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  1. Actuarial Science Meets Financial Economics Buhlmann’s classifications of actuaries Actuaries of the first kind - Life Deterministic calculations Actuaries of the second kind - Casualty Probabilistic methods Actuaries of the third kind - Financial Stochastic processes

  2. Similarities Both Actuaries and Financial Economists: Are mathematically inclined Address monetary issues Incorporate risk into calculations Use specialized languages

  3. Different Approaches Risk Interest Rates Profitability Valuation

  4. Risk Insurance Pure risk - Loss/No loss situations Law of large numbers Finance Speculative risk - Includes chance of gain Portfolio risk

  5. Portfolio Risk Concept introduced by Markowitz in 1952 Var (Rp) = (σ2/n)[1+(n-1)ρ] Rp = Expected outcome for the portfolio σ = Standard deviation of individual outcomes n = Number of individual elements in portfolio ρ = correlation coefficient between any two elements

  6. Portfolio Risk Diversifiable risk Uncorrelated with other securities Cancels out in a portfolio Systematic risk Risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification

  7. Interest Rates Insurance One dimensional value Constant Conservative Finance Multiple dimensions Market versus historical Stochastic

  8. Interest Rate Dimensions Ex ante versus ex post Real versus nominal Yield curve Risk premium

  9. Yield Curves

  10. Profitability Insurance Profit margin on sales Worse yet - underwriting profit margin that ignores investment income Finance Rate of return on investment

  11. Valuation Insurance Statutory value Amortized values for bonds Ignores time value of money on loss reserves Finance Market value Difficulty in valuing non-traded items

  12. Current State of Financial Economics Valuation Valuation models Efficient market hypothesis Anomalies in rates of return

  13. Asset Pricing Models Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) E(Ri) = Rf + βi[E(Rm)-Rf] Ri = Return on a specific security Rf = Risk free rate Rm = Return on the market portfolio βi = Systematic risk = Cov (Ri,Rm)/σm2

  14. Empirical Tests of the CAPM Initially tended to support the model Anomalies Seasonal factors - January effect Size factors Economic factors Systematic risk varies over time Recent tests refute CAPM Fama-French - 1992

  15. Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM) Rf’ = Zero systematic risk rate bi,j = Sensitivity factor λ = Excess return for factor j

  16. Empirical Tests of APM Tend to support the model Number of factors is unclear Predetermined factors approach Based on selecting the correct factors Factor analysis Mathematical process selects the factors Not clear what the factors mean

  17. Option Pricing Model An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security in the future at a predetermined price Call option gives the holder the right to buy Put option gives the holder the right to sell

  18. Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model Pc = Price of a call option Ps = Current price of the asset X = Exercise price r = Risk free interest rate t = Time to expiration of the option σ = Standard deviation of returns N = Normal distribution function

  19. Diffusion Processes Continuous time stochastic process Brownian motion Normal Lognormal Drift Jump Markov process Stochastic process with only the current value of variable relevant for future values

  20. Hedging Portfolio insurance attempted to eliminate downside investment risk - generally failed Asset-liability matching

  21. Duration D = -(dPV(C)/dr)/PV(C) d = partial derivative operator PV(C) = present value of stream of cash flows r = current interest rate

  22. Duration Measures Macauley duration and modified duration Assume cash flows invariant to interest rate changes Effective duration Considers the effect of cash flow changes as interest rates change

  23. Applications of Financial Economics to Insurance Pensions Valuing PBGC insurance Life insurance Equity linked benefits Property-liability insurance CAPM to determine allowable UPM Discounted cash flow models

  24. Conclusion Need for actuaries of the third kind Financial guarantees Investment portfolio management Dynamic financial analysis (DFA) Financial risk management Improved parameter estimation Incorporate insurance terminology

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