Attitudinal data on ‘human security’ in India: Complicating the discussion on ‘freedom from want’. [SDSA data set – 200

1. Attitudinal data on ‘human security’ in India: Complicating the discussion on ‘freedom from want’.[SDSA data set – 2005] Peter Ronald deSouza Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. NTS Inaugural Meeting, Singapore 8-9 Jan 2007. Organized by IDSS, NTU Singapore.

2. The big Question: What is the relationship between Democracy and poverty? • Sen - ‘There are no famines in democracies’. But what about persistent and pervasive hunger and malnutrition? • Zakaria – Using the study of Przerworski and Limongi he writes ‘it is calculated that in a democratic country that has a per capita income of under $1500 (in today’s dollars) the regime has a life expectancy of just eight years. With between $1500 and $3000 it survived on an average for about eighteen years. Above $6000 it became highly resilient’. (p69) • Is India a resilient democracy? What does mass democracy do to widespread poverty?

3. India’s Human Development Indicators (Source HDR 2006). • Life expectancy at birth: ………………….. 63.6 • Adult literacy rate 2004: ………………….. 61. • Combined gross school enrolment ratio: . 62. • GDP per capita (PPP US$) 2004: ………. 3139. • Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live birth): . 62 • Prevalence of T.B (per 1 lakh popln):…… 312. • Undernourished ratio: ……………………. 20. • Popln living under $1 a day: ……………. 34.7 • Access to improved sanitation: urban…… 15 • ……………………………………rural……. 61 • HDI Rank: ………………………………… 126

4. Liberalization, privatization and globalization (LPG) in India since 1990s. • Fiscal and economic reforms resulting in impressive inflow of FII, FDI and growing role of MNCs in economy. • M&As. Considerable dilution of MRTP. Booming private sector esp. IT and Pharma with investments overseas. • Opening up of natural resources to Foreign investment. • Decrease in role of public sector in core areas such as telecoms, air travel, steel, defense production, etc. • Growth of private players in services such as electricity production and distribution, health services, education, etc. • Setting up of SEZs. • Growth of big international players in retailing. • Entry of corporates in agriculture. • Decline in power of labour movement. • 1990-2003 growth 5.9% (Source World Bank Report 2005). • Poverty Ratio (1990s --- 38.9%) in (2000 --- 26.1%).

5. Major political events and processes of the last few years. • Farmers suicides because of indebtedness (in thousands) • Huge protests against natural resource policy in Orissa, (Kalinganagar) Jharkhand (people’s curfew), and Chattisgarh. • Widespread public outcry against SEZs. Maharashtra, West Bengal, Haryana, U.P, Goa. • Major population migrations to urban centres. • Demolition of slums for beautification of cities. • Increased naxalite insurgency with concomitant increase in CSA. • Highly competitive party system and coalition governments at the Centre and in many states. • Judicial activism.

6. But how do the People perceive their own situation under LPG. • On a 10 pt scale from poor to rich 92% placed themselves in the bottom half of the scale. (64% bottom 3 rungs) • 63% felt that household income does not cover needs and that there are (great) difficulties. • But only 28% (very) dissatisfied with their household economic condition. • And only 18% felt that their household economic condition had become (much) worse compared to past. • And only 9% felt that their household economic condition would become (much) worse in the future.

7. How do the People perceive the country’s situation under LPG. • 53% (very) satisfied with economic condition of country. • 66% feel economic condition has become (much) better compared to few years ago. • 74% feel that economic condition of country will become better. • Is this support for LPG? • Is it illustrative of Gramscian ‘hegemony’ or more cynically of Mosca’s ‘political formula’?

8. People’s attitudes to LPG policies. • 84% disapprove of privatization of public sector. • 70% feel govt. employees should not be reduced. • 85% feel supply of electricity should be by public as against private sector. • 83% feel hospital services should be by public as against private sector. • 81% feel schools should be by public as against private sector. • 72% feel bus services should be by public as against private sector. • 63% support a ceiling on income and wealth to reduce differences between rich and poor. • 62% oppose entry of foreign companies because they exploit us. • Is this overwhelming support for the ‘Nehruvian’ state?

9. Disjunction between public attitudes and government policy. • Public preference for greater role of state in economic activity whereas economic policies moving in opposite direction. In a democracy whose views are to prevail elite or mass? Do the elite know better? • Mismatch between subjective perceptions and objective economic conditions. (ref HDI). Is there a low threshold of expectation and satisfaction? • Increasing optimism of future (result of LPG) but want ‘Nehruvian’ state (anti-LPG). How are these to be reconciled?

10. New probings: State of the Nation survey (CSDS_CNN_IBN- Jan 2007). • Questions on SEZ. • Questions on Farmer’s suicides. • Questions on ICDS. • Questions on government hospitals. • Questions on migration abroad. • Employment preference Govt or Pvt sector. • Questions on household econ condition.

11. Democracy and human security. • Growing underclass. Two sections among the poor, those moving upward and those moving downwards. • Democracy and LPG results in both trickle down and sucking up. We need to think about the sizeable underclass. • Under liberalization the state must commit itself to welfarist policies as core principle not simply as strategic calculus. e.g. NREGS, RTI. • Global culture of consumption has the impact of depoliticizing the middle classes. • While there is elite capture of state there are also.. • … two Indias, with irreconcilable interests, emerging?

12. Thank you