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How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development?

How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development?. How relevant are field campaigns for operational model development? Experiences from MAP. Hans Volkert Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling, Germany

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How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development?

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  1. How useful are findings of MAPfor operational mesoscale model development? How relevant are field campaigns for operational model development? Experiences fromMAP Hans Volkert Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling, Germany with contributions of many MAPpers; acknowlegements as we go along

  2. 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999 3) MAP data @ meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) 4) Some conclusions

  3. 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns • 1904 (-100 a): • idea of physical modelling - • analysis, prognosis Vilhelm Bjerknes • 1954 (-50 a): • quasi-operational tests on electronic • computers in Sweden & USA • 1974 (-30 a): • GATE within GARP Atlantik Tropical Experiment • GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme (HV into meteorology) • 1994 (-10 a): • planning of MAP starts • 1999 (-5 a): • MAP-SOP: 7 Sep. - 15 Nov.

  4. 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999 Dry MAP: waves, drag, flux Wet MAP:microphysics, rain

  5. Scale / resolution in theAlpine region 800 km 1994: DM with ∆x = 14 km ≈3 km 450 km ≈4 km Target Areas The 'truth' (500 m res.) MODIS: 02/02/02 2003: Meso-NH with ∆x = 2 km

  6. some observational tools: airborne and groundbased

  7. 'MAP bookshop': M.A.P. 72, 2000 14 articles onHERA QJRMS 588, 2003 25 articles on MAP-SOP HESS 7, 2003 10 articles on RAPHAEL & MAP-SOP BAMS overviews, numerous other papers Met. Z., 2004: 3 issues 14 MAP articles from ICAM-03

  8. 3) MAP data @ meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy)

  9. Mesoscale models developed/applied during MAP: ARPS LM UM MM5 multiple grid nesting; Δx down to 150 m

  10. Dry MAP UKMO mountain waves IOP-15, 8 Nov. 1999 3 aircraft vs. Unified Model ref: Sam. Smith, QJRMS, 130, 2004 Falcon C-130 Electra

  11. Alpine boundary layer Weigel et al. (ETH-Z, CH), AMS-MM Conf., 2004

  12. Predictability of convection/rain Po valley I CH West-ern Alps F I Andre Walser, Mon.Wea.Rev., 132, 2004

  13. Precipitation into catchments MC2 radar Andre Walser & Christoph Schär, J. Hydrology, 2004

  14. Water budgets: Lac Leman Lac Leman Ligurian Sea Ligurian Sea Joël Stein 2004, QJ, 481-502 similar studies by R. Smith et al.

  15. Re-analysis at ECMWF (T319L50 vs. T511L60) Christian Keil & Claudia Cardinali, QJ, 130, 2004, in press

  16. Re-analysis at ECMWF(continued) case study for precipitation

  17. DIAL Re-analysis at ECMWF(continued) case study for upper level intrusion moisture RA CNTR

  18. Hydrol. modelling (P3): runoff from predicted precip. atmosphere river recently: Grossi & Kouwen: 5 atm. mod. + 2 hydro. mod. = 10 exp. Roberto Ranzi

  19. 4) Some conclusions

  20. simplistic picture of progress: • higher spatial/temporal resolution ―> finer grids • ―> better forecasts • typical field campaign: • SOP of several weeks 10-20 IOPs of 1-2 d each • domain/period of addid. data <<standard verification areas • lessons from MAP (after numerous case studies): • initial data of similar impact as small scale detailsnumerical experiments mainly in research/university groups • e.g. compl. MAP-SOP analyses from ARPEGE by F. ARNAL • very few close to operational developers (some plans) • cooperative spirit & creativity needed: • unconventional perspectives may overcome specialists' bound.

  21. MAP: a look ahead Systematic harvestingtill may 2005 (ICAM-MAP Zadar)

  22. a possible phase-space for the harvest: Progress categories phys. understanding num. simulation obs. techniques Projects academia met. services P1 P2+P6 P3 P4+P5 P7+P8 society Needs which other dimensions are (more) meaningful ?

  23. MAP: a look ahead Systematic harvestingtill may 2005 (ICAM-MAP Zadar) Forecast demonstration project (FDP; a la WMO-WWRP) quasi-operational ~ 3 months in 2006 (?) coordinated by MetCH (Mathias Rotach) termed D-PHASE (Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulations in the European Alps)

  24. and never forget ... Sample of the MAP community naar Brig, June 2003 ... mapping is and remains TEAM work

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