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Chapter 22

Chapter 22. Comparing Two Proportions . Comparing Two Proportions. Comparisons between two percentages are much more common than questions about isolated percentages.

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Chapter 22

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  1. Chapter 22 Comparing Two Proportions

  2. Comparing Two Proportions • Comparisons between two percentages are much more common than questions about isolated percentages. • We often want to know how two groups differ, whether a treatment is better than a placebo control, or whether this year’s results are better than last year’s. • In order to examine the difference between two proportions, we need another ruler—the standard deviation of the sampling distribution model for the difference between two proportions.

  3. The Standard Deviation of the Difference Between Two Proportions • Proportions observed in independent random samples are independent. Thus, we can add their variances. • The standard deviation of the difference between two sample proportions is • Thus, the standard error is

  4. Assumptions and Conditions • Independence Assumptions: • Randomization Condition: The data in each group should be drawn independently and at random from a homogeneous population or generated by a randomized comparative experiment. • The 10% Condition:The sample should not exceed 10% of the population. • Independent Groups Assumption: The two groups we’re comparing must be independent of each other. • Sample Size Condition: • Each of the groups must be big enough… • Success/Failure Condition: Both groups are big enough that at least 10 successes and at least 10 failures have been observed in each.

  5. The Sampling Distribution • We already know that for large enough samples, each of our proportions has an approximately Normal sampling distribution. The same is true of their difference. • Provided that the sampled values are independent, the samples are independent, and the samples sizes are large enough, the sampling distribution of is modeled by a Normal model with • Mean: • Standard deviation:

  6. Two-Proportion z-Interval • When the conditions are met, we are ready to find the confidence interval for the difference of two proportions: • The confidence interval is where • The critical value z* depends on the particular confidence level, C, that you specify.

  7. Example • There has been debate among doctors over whether surgery can prolong life among men suffering from prostate cancer, a type of cancer that typically develops and spreads slowly. In summer of 2003, The New England Journal of Medicine published results of some research: Men diagnosed with prostate cancer were randomly assigned to either undergo surgery or not. Among the 347 men who had surgery, 16 eventually died of prostate cancer, compared with 31 of 348 who did not have surgery. Create a 90% confidence interval for the difference in rates of death for the two groups of men.

  8. Pool the data into a single group • The typical hypothesis test for the difference in two proportions is the one of no difference. In symbols, H0: p1 – p2 = 0. • Since we are hypothesizing that there is no difference between the two proportions, that means that the standard deviations for each proportion are the same. • Since this is the case, we combine (pool) the counts to get one overall proportion.

  9. The pooled proportion is where and • If the numbers of successes are not whole numbers, round them first. • We then put this pooled value into the formula, substituting it for both sample proportions in the standard error formula:

  10. Two-Proportion z-Test • The conditions for the two-proportion z-test are the same as for the two-proportion z-interval. • We are testing the hypothesis H0: p1 = p2. • Because we hypothesize that the proportions are equal, we pool them to find

  11. Two-Proportion z-Test (cont.) • We use the pooled value to estimate the standard error: • Now we find the test statistic: • When the conditions are met and the null hypothesis is true, this statistic follows the standard Normal model, so we can use that model to obtain a P-value.

  12. Example • There has been debate among doctors over whether surgery can prolong life among men suffering from prostate cancer, a type of cancer that typically develops and spreads slowly. In summer of 2003, The New England Journal of Medicine published results of some research: Men diagnosed with prostate cancer were randomly assigned to either undergo surgery or not. Among the 347 men who had surgery, 16 eventually died of prostate cancer, compared with 31 of 348 who did not have surgery. • Is it result an evidence that surgery can actually prolong life among men with prostate cancer?

  13. Homework Assignment Page 574 – 577 Problem # 15, 19 (omit part f), 21, 23, 27, 29, 35, 39.

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