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Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors Kevin S. McKelvey 1 , Jeffrey P. Copeland 1 , Michael K. Schwartz 1 , Jeremy S. Littell 2 , Keith B. Aubry 3 , John R. Squires 1 , Sean A. Parks 1 , Marketa M. Elsner 2 , Guillaume S. Mauger 2

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Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

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  1. Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors Kevin S. McKelvey1, Jeffrey P. Copeland1, Michael K. Schwartz1, Jeremy S. Littell2, Keith B. Aubry3, John R. Squires1, Sean A. Parks1, Marketa M. Elsner2, Guillaume S. Mauger2 1USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3USFS ,PNW, Olympia WA. Eco. Apps, available in preprint

  2. Historical Wolverine Locations (1827 to 1960) Aubry et al. 2007

  3. Wolverine Reproductive Dens Weaning late April to early May requires snowMagoun and Copeland (1998) 5 females, 15 dens Late May in northwestern Alaska

  4. All wolverine dens with high quality spatial coordinates U.S. Canada Scandinavia High resolution snow coverage MODIS (daily, 0.5km, worldwide) 7 yrs data Chose May 15 as date for weaning Persistent snow cover through May 15 Copeland, J.P., et al. 2010. The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine: Do climatic constraints limit their geographic distribution? Canadian Journal of Zoology 88:233-246.

  5. Scandinavia From: Copeland et al. 2010

  6. 562 dens 65 North America 327 Norway 160 Sweden 10 Finland 550 (97.9%) were in snow pixels ALL were snow dens Majority in pixels covered 5+ years North America Stats for dens From: Copeland et al. 2010

  7. Range matches snow Range map: Jokkmokk SE, 2005 From: Copeland et al. 2010 Notable misses: Quebec (extirpated) Southern Rockies (extirpated) Southern Scandinavia (recolonizing)

  8. 89% of locations, all ages, both sexes, all seasons Pattern stronger in summer in all study areas From: Copeland et al. 2010

  9. Dispersal analysis based on resistance modeling

  10. Greater Yellowstone area From: Copeland et al. 2010

  11. Straight path Schwartz et al. 2009. Wolverine gene flow across a narrow climatic niche. Ecology 90: 3222-3232.

  12. Greater Yellowstone area Genetic models indicate high preference for movement within snow-defined areas From: Copeland et al. 2010

  13. From: Schwartz et al. 2009 Montana Idaho Greater Yellowstone Area, WY

  14. Conclusions: Wolverine are an organism adapted to the “Hudsonian” zone Historical range Den requirements Worldwide current range Habitat use patterns Dispersal patterns Areas with persistent snow cover through May 15 provides effective proxy for habitat requirements Past, Present---Future?

  15. 10 IPCC AR4 models screened for regional skill Average, cool (pcm1), hot (miroc 3.2) 2030-2059, 2070-2099 Historical reconstruction A1B emission scenario Delta downscaling to 1/16 deg VIC to generate spring snowpack Best fit crosswalk to May 15 MODIS data http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/ Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_ USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf

  16. Historical downscaled VIC May 15 MODIS (Copeland et al. 2010) Resample to 0.5km; 93.7% correct classification From : McKelvey et al. 2011

  17. Historical 2030-2059 Average 67% retained 37% retained 2070-2099 Average From : McKelvey et al. 2011

  18. 2070-2099 Cool Average Hot From : McKelvey et al. 2011

  19. Historical 2030-2059 2070-2099 From : McKelvey et al. 2011

  20. Snow polygons > 1000 km2 2070-2099 Average From : McKelvey et al. 2011

  21. Sierra Nevada (Tahoe area)

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