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Demographic Assessment of the Holodomor within the Context of the 1932-1934 Famine in the USSR

Demographic Assessment of the Holodomor within the Context of the 1932-1934 Famine in the USSR. Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Annual Ukrainian Famine Lecture University of Toronto Toronto, November 9, 2010. HOLODOMOR. Scientific challenge:

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Demographic Assessment of the Holodomor within the Context of the 1932-1934 Famine in the USSR

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  1. Demographic Assessment of the Holodomor within the Context of the 1932-1934 Famine in the USSR Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Annual Ukrainian Famine Lecture University of Toronto Toronto, November 9, 2010

  2. HOLODOMOR • Scientific challenge: * Data availability * Data quality * Extensive historical research but limited demographic research * No bridge between historical and demographic research • Highly politicized topic: * Number of Holodomor losses * Does the Holodomor qualify as genocide?

  3. Definitions of “Holodomor Losses” • “Additional” deaths due to hunger vs. all deaths during a period • Ukrainian Republic vs all Ukrainians in the Soviet Union • 1932-1933 or 1927-1938 • Target of Holodomor: * all Ukrainians * Ukrainian nation * Ukrainian peasants * Ukrainian peasants and elite

  4. Subjective Estimates of Holodomor Losses Lozynskyj, A. “The case for 7 to 10 million”, The Ukrainian Weekly, May 11, 2008 • Winston Churchill in his memoirs published in 1959, mentions a conversation with Stalin in August 1942. Stalin talks about the collectivization effort and holds up two hands with the words “ten million, it was fearful”. • William Strang, British diplomat in Moscow, wrote about his conversation with Walter Duranty. In September 1933, after Durante returned from Ukraine and North Caucasus: “Mr. Duranty thinks it quite possible that as many as 10 million people may have died directly or indirectly from lack of food in the Soviet Union during the past year”, but estimates 4-5 million for Ukraine (Carynnyk, 1988).

  5. Quantitative Estimates of Holodomor Losses Lozynskyj, A. “The case for 7 to 10 million”, The UkrainianWeekly, May 11, 2008 * 1926 census: 31 millions Ukrainians in the whole USSR * 1939 census: 28 millions Ukrainians in the whole USSR (3 million loss) * 1926-39 growth of non-Ukrainian population in the USSR = 23%: - 31 million x 1.23 = 38 million (expected in 1939) Estimated total loss of Ukrainians in all USSR: expected (1939) – census (1939) = 38 – 28 = 10 million

  6. Selected Estimates of Direct Holodomor Losses for Ukraine

  7. Adjustments to the 1926 census • Current borders of Ukraine: add Krym, subtract Prednistrovia • Reallocate army personnel to places of permanent residence • Redistribute unknown age group • Adjust for undercount of children 0-2 yrs. • Adjust for underreporting of women 8-27 yrs. in Muslim countries (early marriage) • Smooth out age heaping • Bring data to January 1, 1927 (from Dec. 17) Adjustments: most Asian Republics 2-4%, Ukraine and Russia about 1% (Ukraine 300,000 increase)

  8. Adjustment of 1939 Census

  9. Southern Region of European part of Russia Definition and parameters as of 17/1/1939: Region % of Territory % of Population Central Black Earth 1.1% 9.6% Povolzha 4.2% 24.2% Northern Caucasus 1.5% 6.8% Total (% of RSSR) 5.8% 40.6%

  10. Yearly REGISTERED Births and Deaths: Ukraine, 1927-1938

  11. Yearly ADJUSTED Births and Deaths: Kazakhstan, 1927-1938

  12. Yearly REGISTERED Births and Deaths: S. Russia, 1927-1938

  13. Yearly REGISTERED Births and Deaths: Belarus, 1927-1938

  14. Yearly ADJUSTED Births and Deaths: Armenia, 1927-1938

  15. Yearly ADJUSTED Births and Deaths: Azerbaijan, 1927-1938

  16. DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION (Reconstruction) P(1939) = P(1927) + B(1927-39) – D(1927-39) + Net migr. P(t+1,x,s) = P(t,x,s) – D(t,x,s) + Net Migr(t,x,s) P(1927;x,s) -------------------------------------------- P(1939;x;s) 1927 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3 35 36 37 38 1939

  17. Advantages and Disadvantages of the Population Reconstruction Method Advantages: * Estimate losses during the Famine years, 1932-1934, instead of the intercensal period 1927-1938 * Can make separate estimates of direct (excess deaths) and indirect (lost births) losses * Direct losses by sex and by age * Indicators like life expectancy at birth * More precise than other estimation methods Issues: * Requires more detailed data * Evaluation of quality of data key to improved estimates

  18. Population Balance: Ukraine, 1927-1939 (thousands)

  19. Net Migration by Republics: Intercensal Period and Famine Period

  20. Registered and Adjusted Births and Deaths:Ukraine, 1927 - 1938

  21. Direct Losses by Republic: 1932-1934 Total and per 1,000 Population

  22. Direct Losses for Republics with Losses in 1932, 1933 and 1934

  23. Direct Losses per 1,000 Population for Republics with Losses in 1932, 1933 and 1934

  24. Total Losses (direct and indirect) by Republic: 1932-1934

  25. Lost Births per 1,000 Births by Republic: 1932-34

  26. Ukraine and Western Europe Mortality

  27. Mortality in Ukraine: 1933 and 1942

  28. Infant Mortality* for Selected Countries: 1929, 1932 and 1933

  29. Adjusted Deaths per 1,000 Pop. for Ukraine, S. Russia, Belarus: 1933

  30. Was the Famine in Ukraine a Genocide? * August 7, 1932: Law on the defense of state property against peasant theft: Stealing kolkhoz property is punishable by death, or to 5-10 years of forced labor. * August 11, 1932: Letter from Stalin to Kaganovich: “..Ukraine is now the main issue, the republic’s party, state, and even political police organs teem with nationalist agents and Polish spies, and there is a real risk of “loosing Ukraine”, which should be transformed into a Bolshevik fortress”. * November 18, 1932: The Ukrainian Central Committee, orders peasants to return the meager grain advances over the new crop they had received in recompense for their work. Hundreds of local officials who had helped out starving peasant families by distributing grain to them are shot and thousands are arrested.

  31. Was the Famine in Ukraine a Genocide? November 20, 1932: In Ukraine and Kuban the state resorted to fines in kind, in order to size meat and potatoes from peasants. (This measure was NOT extended to the Volga). Specific areas of Ukraine and the Northern Caucasus, where the opposition to collectivization had been stronger, were punished even more cruelly: all goods, including on-agricultural, were removed from stores and al inhabitants were deported from certain localities. December 6: Resolution of the Council of People’s Commissars and the Communist Part (Bolshevik) of Ukraine: “blacklist” villages that allegedly sabotaged grain procurements. This consisted of: - halting all delivery of goods and removing all goods remaining in cooperatives and state stores; - a comprehensive ban on cooperative and state trading, and on collective-farm trading for both collective farmers and individual peasants - cessation of all credit and the acceleration of repayment of existing loans and other financial obligations.

  32. Was the Famine in Ukraine a Genocide? December 14 and 15, 1932: The Politburo passed two secret decrees that reversed, but only in the Ukrainian case, the official nationality policies (korenizatsiia) implemented in 1923. January 22, 1933: Stalin and Molotov ordered the OGPU (United State Political Administration of the Soviet of People’s Commissars for the USSR) to stop peasants from fleeing Ukraine and Kuban in search of food. In the following months, 220,000 people, predominantly hungry peasants in search of food, and 190,000 of them were sent back to their villages to starve.

  33. Future Research Directions • Estimation of losses by nationalities in the USSR • Disaggregate the South Russia region into smaller regions, in order to estimate losses for Kuban and Russian regions with heavy losses like Saratov • In-depth analysis of losses in Ukraine: * by rural-urban * for Oblasts Open a new area of research: linkages between the historical record and demographic characteristics of the Holodomor.

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