American Government

1. American Government Public Opinion

2. Public Opinion Public opinion is an important topic in American politics • Since we define ourselves as a democratic society, what the people want matters --they are the ultimate source of governmental legitimacy • On the other hand, the founders explicitly and extensively sought to limit the impact of public opinion on politics in the U.S. • As we've noticed earlier, numerous checks on majority rule: founders feared that majority could -- and probably would -- act unwisely • Founders were more interested in fulfilling the goals outlined in the preamble to the Constitution. • Therefore, they created a system in which public opinion could translate itself into public policy, but not one in which it necessarily would translate itself into public policy.

3. 3 Facts about Public Opinion Important Facts to Know 1. Public opinion may conflict with other important values (Madison's old majority faction problem) • Most notably, public opinion may conflict with fundamental, constitutionally protected rights • potentially -- and sporadically -- a serious problem • in actuality, though, our political culture is mild

4. Public Opinion is Hard to Figure • Public opinion is very difficult to interpret Often there is no one "public“ --rather many publics. Many people in the public are: • uninformed • unconstrained -- want mutually exclusive things As a result, while several preferences are stable, many are fickle • stable: peace, prosperity • fickle: energy, environment, nuclear freeze, wars

5. Public Opinion Changes

6. Public Opinion Changes

7. Public Opinion is Hard to Know… • Public Opinion Polls are sensitive to the wording of questions and, therefore, easily manipulated • options/tradeoffs -- taxes for deficit • order of alternatives • loaded questions • "astroturf" campaigns • result => we must be careful when asked to evaluate options based on what "the public" thinks.

8. Devil is in the Details

9. Public Opinion on Obamacare

10. Public Opinion on Obamacare

11. Public Opinion on Obamacare

12. Public Opinion & Elites 3. Public opinion is mediated by political elites • not everyone's opinion has the same political weight • opinion of more politically active people is more politically important • political elites drive the wheel of politics

13. Origins of Public Opinion • Family • party ID is inherited • issue positions are generally not transmitted • Reference groups • churches -- different traditions and social bases • Jews: persecuted; generally liberal views on both social and economic matters • Catholics: lower SES class often, some persecution, group focus; economically liberal, socially conservative • Protestants: dominant group, personal focus; more conservative on both economic and social issues • Other groups -- we are a nation of joiners

14. The Biology of Politics Biological factors in Public Opinion • Gender gap • because they bear a greater responsibility for bearing/raising children, women tend to be more interested in and liberal on issues concerning social welfare • Age • younger people tend to be more liberal • less invested in the system • more flexible (old dogs and all that)

15. Socioeconomic Factors in Public Opinion Economic class • wealthy have more • human nature to think it is deserved • favor policies that let them keep their well-deserved wealth --- much invested in the system Education • generally, education leads to more liberal views (liberal arts) • A great example of cross-cutting cleavages, however. • -income tends to rise with education • -therefore, cross pressures • Examples of “Big Tent” • GOP composed of Wall Street types, farmers, blue collar Reaganites, Bible thumpers; • Democrats composed of poor, limousine liberals, labor, pro-choice, Catholics

16. Public Opinion and Parties

17. Cleavages in Comparative Perspective Contrast American Public with fragmented societies like Northern Ireland • No cross-pressured groups • Result = on-going, intractable violence • Catholics: • poor • Celtic • Nationalist • Protestants: • Rich • Anglo-Saxon • Loyalist

18. Bipolar Politics

19. Ideology & Public Opinion Liberal vs. Conservative can be confusing • Classically • liberals = proponents of limited government • conservatives = opponents of French Revolution • socially conservative -- believed in a larger role for government -- protect the traditional social fabric • Changed in the U.S. during the Progressive Era (1890-1910) and the New Deal (1930s) • FDR described his efforts to have federal government take a larger responsibility for social welfare as "liberal" • conservatives opposed this --- called for smaller government • Formed the basis for the so-called "New Deal Realignment" • Democrats became the party of larger government • Republicans became the party of smaller government

20. Political Ideology in the Mass Public

21. U.S. Politics: Centrist Important: In US, ideology is bounded and centrist. • both liberals and conservatives hail from classical liberal roots - split between them is small • even the most virulent liberals in the US believe in a basically free market • -few anarchists • -few revolutionary Maoists • even the most virulent conservatives believe in basic human rights, civil liberties, equality • -few monarchists • -few theocrats • -few Nazis

22. Polling Defined • Opinion polls are surveys of public opinion using sampling. • Polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by asking a small number of people a series of questions and then extrapolating the answers to the larger group. • Day after day polls dealing with questions about public affairs and private business are being conducted throughout the United States. • Polls are used by businesses, government, universities, and hosts of other organizations to answer a variety of questions. • Opinion polling has also spread to England, Canada, Australia, Sweden, and France.

23. Polling: History & Perspective • The first known example of an opinion poll was a local straw vote conducted by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian in 1824. • It showed Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. • This poll was unscientific – as were all attempts to systematically identify public opinion then. • A scientific poll must be representative.

24. The Onset of Modern Polling • The Literary Digest poll • Big sample • Unrepresentative sample • Got the Roosevelt / Landon race wrong • Gallup poll • Smaller sample • Representative sample • Got Roosevelt landslide right

25. Polling in Politics Functions of Polls in Politics Used by candidates to determine strategy Used by interest groups to decide who to support and with how much resources Used by election observers to track the ‘horse race’ Used by leaders to craft policy (i.e. Contract With America) It is also useful where leaders want to ‘manipulate’ public opinion – wedge issues

26. What to Know about a Poll • 1. Who paid for the poll? • 2. What does the poll’s sponsor have to gain by particular results? • 3. What were the exact questions? • 4. How and when was the poll administered? • 5. How many people were polled? • 6. Who analyzed or interpreted the poll?

27. Polling Nuts & Bolts: Sampling • Polls require taking samples from populations. • Sampling is necessary because of: • cost • practicality • A good sample MUST be a representative sample and the best way to ensure a representative sample is to take a random sample. • While it is possible that you might randomly select 1000 Bush supporters out of the population, it is very unlikely. • Random sampling isn’t perfect – it just makes an unrepresentative sample improbable.

28. Internet Polling: Non-Scientific

29. Polling: A Concrete Example • According to an October 2, 2004 survey by Newsweek • 42 % of registered voters would vote for John Kerry/John Edwards. • 46% would vote for George W. Bush/Dick Cheney • 2 % would vote for Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo. • The size of the sample is 1,013 • The reported margin of error is ±4 %.

30. Poll Results

31. Poll Results w/ Bounds

32. Interpreting Polls with Bounds • Who is winning? • Because the bounds of the two estimates for Bush & Kerry overlap, this is a “statistical tie.” • It is possible, given the margin of error and the results, that either Bush or Kerry may have been ahead. • Nader, however, is definitely behind.

33. Sample Size & Margin of Error • The margin of error is directly tied to the size of the sample. • The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error. • Larger samples mean more accurate estimates.

34. Sample Size & Margin of Error

35. Sample Size & Estimates

36. Choosing your Sample • The relationship between the sample size and the margin of error is NOT 1:1. • Diminishing returns are obtained as the size of the sample increases. • Hence you need an ever larger and larger increase in your sample to get the same reduction in the margin of error. • Most pollsters strike a balance between cost of the sample and reduction in the margin of error • commonly used sample sizes range from 1,000 to 2,000.

37. Problems in Polling: Response Bias • Not all error in polling is statistical. • Survey results may be affected by response bias, where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. • This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in a push poll, but more often is a result of bad wording or ordering of questions (priming).

38. Push Polling & Question Wording • A push pollis a political campaign technique. • Involves asking loaded questions thus ‘pushing’ respondents towards particular answers. • Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning. • Push Polls are bad because: • They misrepresent public opinion • They often are not truthful • Dirty politics

39. Push Polling & Astro-Turf Campaigns • Push polls are also used by interest groups to generate the appearance of grassroots support for their positions. Hence they may ask respondents questions designed to illicit the preferred responses: Pro-Choice Push Poll Question: • Do you believe women should have a right to privacy? Pro-Life Push Poll Question: • Do you approve of the laws permitting abortion on demand, resulting in the murder of 1.5 million babies a year?

40. Respondent Avoidance • Respondents may: • advocate a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of the argument • give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. • Feel under social pressure to avoid unpopular answers: spiral of silence.

41. Response Bias: Problems on Our End • Observer Effects • The mere fact of taking a poll can change attitudes or behavior • Presence of an observer – Hawthorne Effect • A White interviewer asking a Black man about his racial attitudes. • A female interviewer asking a man about the number of sexual partners he has had. • An interviewer asks about information the respondent doesn’t want to reveal.

42. Response Bias: Timing • Doing a poll on Sept. 12th, 2001 on immigration or feelings about Arabs • Daytime/Nighttime • Most polls are taken from 6pm – 10pm…thus short term effects (news program on poverty) can have effects on the responses • What if we took polls at 1pm in the afternoon? • Thermometer scores – correlation with actual temperature outside (giving higher thermometer scores in the summer)

43. Instrumental Response Bias: Question Wording • Surveys are fraught with pitfalls: • the wording of the questions • the order in which they are asked • the number of alternatives • the form of alternatives • Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. • Asking the same questions over time can minimize question/instrument effects.

44. Interpretation Bias - Example 1956:

45. Interpretation Bias - Example 1964:

46. Response Bias in Surveys: • Neutral effects – people ‘tend’ to choose the middle category. • folks tend to go for that middle category no matter what their actual feelings are. • Because they don’t want to appear extreme • Because they don’t know • Non-Attitudes – people will choose a choice even when they don’t have an opinion on either of them • Who is your American Idol? • Peter Griffin • Charlie Sheen • Eric Cartman • Lisa Simpson • Don’t Know

47. Response Bias: Non-Response Problems arise with non-response when the survey respondents have distinct opinions from non-respondents • Travelers are more likely to respond to surveys from organizations that serviced them more than non-travelers

48. Non-Response in the Internet Age

49. Respondent Problems: Neutral Effect Example QUESTION: --------- Where would you place YOURSELF on this scale, or haven't you thought much about this? VALID CODES: ------------ 01. Extremely liberal 02. Liberal 03. Slightly liberal 04. Moderate; middle lf the road 05. Slightly conservative 06. Conservative 07. Extremely conservative

50. Neutral Effects: Helping to Solve them PRE-ELECTION SURVEY: IF R'S PARTY PREFERENCE IS INDEPENDENT, NO PREFERENCE, OTHER: QUESTION: --------- Do you think of yourself as CLOSER to the Republican Party or to the Democratic party? VALID CODES: ------------ 1. Closer to Republican 3. Neither {VOL} 5. Closer to Democratic