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Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH surveys: the Albania Experience

Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH surveys: the Albania Experience. Gero Carletto DECRG, The World Bank Jan 24, 2008. The issues. Lack of data, haphazard efforts Sources PopCensus (immigration; internal, undercount; frequency) Border crossings, admin records (undocumented?)

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Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH surveys: the Albania Experience

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  1. Collecting Migration Data using Multi-topic HH surveys: the Albania Experience Gero Carletto DECRG, The World Bank Jan 24, 2008

  2. The issues • Lack of data, haphazard efforts • Sources • PopCensus (immigration; internal, undercount; frequency) • Border crossings, admin records (undocumented?) • Surveys (representative?). Little attention … • Remittances (official only). • Definitions • Migrant • Permanent vs. temporary/seasonal/circular • Returnees • HH membership/headship

  3. The issues (cont’d) • Sampling • Rare event, clustered • Probability vs. non-probability sampling • Survey options • Stand-alone vs. piggybacked • Identification • Remittances

  4. Albania: the context • “Quasi-experimental” setting • 1990 • Huge outflows • International (permanent vs. temporary) • Internal • Geography • Piggyback approach (2002-05) • Gradual • Pilots and training

  5. ALSMS innovations • HH membership • Histories • Networks • Tracking migrants • Identification

  6. Household membership • Prototype LSMS definition • Fertility module (2002) • Underestimate if mother absent • “Relaxed” definition (2005) • Double counting? • Extended roster

  7. Migration histories • High mobility, internal and external • Both permanent and temporary • Permanent/long vs. shorter episodes (Smith and Thomas, 2003) • “Bound” grid for hh members • Clear time marks • Up to 3 episodes for non-hh members • Detailed characterization

  8. Migration histories

  9. Networks • Immediate family • Children and spouse • Time of migration (and return?) • Siblings of HH head and spouse • Destination, gender, occupation, … • Networks in 1990

  10. Modeling migration • Hazard model • Probability of migration in any given time period t, conditional on not having migrated up through time t-1 • Diffusion (time dimension) • Time-varying covariates

  11. Hazard model

  12. Tracking migrants • Contact info • Process • Greece only; list of migrants with contacts • 1st contact in Greece • Return visit in Fall (phone cards) • 2nd contact in Greece • Interview • High attrition • No contact info • Unable to locate • Refusal (not high) • Returnees/high mobility • Selection bias(es) [undocumented]

  13. Identification • Migration decision not random • Instruments: determinants of migration, not correlated with outcome of choice • “By being clever, it is often possible to come up with convincing instruments” (Woolridge) • Pre-1990 conditions • Languages • Propensity to move • Network • Distances

  14. Impact on policy • Determinants of migration (by gender) • Dynamic model • Impact of migration at origin on … • Welfare • Agriculture and livestock • Business ownership • Occupational choice • 2003 and 2007 PA • Long process. Dissemination?

  15. LSMSIV: next steps • HH membership/headship • Imputing total remittances • Better identification, matching • Tracking • Experimental design (?)

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