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Complex, long-term health and social needs. ‘Grand Challenge’ Progress report and Next steps. Grand Challenge - reprise . 70% of all health and social care activities. Enough said…. ‘Standard’ approach focuses on single conditions
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Complex, long-term health and social needs ‘Grand Challenge’ Progress report and Next steps
Grand Challenge - reprise • 70% of all health and social care activities. Enough said…. • ‘Standard’ approach focuses on single conditions • Extensive experience of dementia, E of L, frailty etcbut for eg • Eg 60% over 65 have at least one long term condition Hence… • Complexities/co-morbidities dictate a multi condition solution • In May, this begat the Cumberland Initiative Grand Challenge
Extending the single condition view Significant co-morbidities Predominance of single conditions LTC 1 LTC 2 LTC 3 Frailty End of Life Care LTC 4 LTC 5 LTC etc…….
Progress to date… • Research proposal - ‘people not pathways’/population health focus • Four clearly identified research ‘pillars’ - Clinically driven • Cohort analytics • Co developed solutions • Alternative service model bank • Patient-Professional relationships • Dedicated Ethos team plus a technology partner • ‘Seminal’ 8/9000 word paper in outline specification • Encouraging initial market traction in England and Wales
Initial market traction • Future localised cost trends - the scary ‘blue line’ • Increasing focus on integrated care • Greater emphasis on prevention • Risk stratification to tailor service responses • Hospital admission • Admission to a care home • Frailty likelihood that end of life is approaching; • Cost/service impacts of strategic redesign initiatives • …particularly savings accrue to health plus social care
Emerging industry engagement • Clinical - Primary care, geriatricians, palliative, psychiatry • Commissioners - CCGs, LAs and CSUs • Industry - Data-mining, aggregation, visualisation • Academic/AHSNs - Service evaluation, epidemiology • Social care-Integration agenda & stat responsibilities • Workforce development - 70% of all services are people
Emerging simulation ‘offers’ • ‘Extended’ individual condition pathways • Data mining and risk stratification • Geographic mapping & health inequalities assessment • Population/cohort modelling for strategic redesign • Local stakeholder engagement/integ’ed responses • Demand-side modelling workforce training & devm
Next steps - Collaboration • Pathfinder CCGs and Local Authorities • AHSN, CSU and of course Cumberland relationships • (Exciting) on line visual technology development • Further scale up of the (extended) team and capabilities • Progressive and/or selective industry engagement • Major collaborative grant and funding bids….