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Climate-based early warning systems: implications for public health in the Pacific

Climate-based early warning systems: implications for public health in the Pacific. Dr Lachlan McIver Climate Change and Health Officer (Acting Head, Environmental Health Unit) Health & Nutrition Cluster Coordinator, Pacific Humanitarian Team WHO Division of Pacific Technical Support

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Climate-based early warning systems: implications for public health in the Pacific

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  1. Climate-based early warning systems: implications for public health in the Pacific Dr Lachlan McIver Climate Change and Health Officer (Acting Head, Environmental Health Unit) Health & Nutrition Cluster Coordinator, Pacific Humanitarian Team WHO Division of Pacific Technical Support Suva, Fiji

  2. Overview of presentation • How weather & climate information can add value to “traditional” public health surveillance and response systems • Types of early warning systems used in the health context • Examples of climate-based early warning systems mechanisms in the Pacific • Discussion of possible implications for other sectors/clusters

  3. Early warning or surveillance? • Surveillance systems are intended to detect disease outbreaks • Early warning systems are designed to alert the community in advance and to implement effective measures to reduce adverse health outcomes

  4. Early Warning vs. Surveillance Certainty Response Early Warning Surveillance Epidemic Early cases Sentinel cases Environmental observations Climate forecasts Time

  5. Early Warning Systems • The system should be developed with all relevant stakeholders to ensure that the issues of greatest concern are identified and addressed • A basic requirement is that the community or region has sufficient public health and social infrastructure to undertake its design and implementation

  6. Early Warning Systems (cont.) The principal components of an early warning system include Identification and forecasting of weather conditions Prediction of possible health outcomes, based on past events An effective and timely response plan Ongoing evaluation of the system and its components

  7. Ideal Early Warning Systems Provide warning in sufficient time for action Are affordable • Require minimal skill and training to operate and maintain Give acceptable false positive or false negative rates The effect on health impacts is robust, reproducible, and verifiable Can be easily modified to address a changing climate

  8. more specific information more time to reduce risk Using information across time-scales… Climate change rising risks, trends, more surprises Decades, end of century Long Lead Time Seasonal forecasts level of risk in coming months next 3-6 months Weather forecasts impending hazard 10 days or less Short Lead Time

  9. EXAMPLES OF TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND DISEASE IN THE PACIFIC • Example #1: Extreme weather events and infectious diseases in Fiji (Ba subdivision)

  10. EXAMPLES OF TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND DISEASE IN THE PACIFIC • Example #2: Temperature and respiratory disease (left) and diarrhoeal disease (right) in Pohnpei (FSM)

  11. EXAMPLES OF TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND DISEASE IN THE PACIFIC • Example #3: Rainfall and diarrhoeal disease in Suva subdivision (Fiji)

  12. EXAMPLES OF TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND DISEASE IN THE PACIFIC • Example #4: Temperature, rainfall, humidity, infectious diseases and diabetes in Majuro (Marshall Islands)

  13. EXAMPLES OF TEMPORAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND DISEASE IN THE PACIFIC • Example #5: Long term health impacts of heat in Palau

  14. A cautionary tale from Tavua… • During a SWOT analysis of the health sector’s response to the Fiji flood events in early 2012, a MoH team visited all six subdivisions in the Western Division of Fiji • Included in these meetings was a discussion of the potential utility of climate-based early warning systems for infectious disease epidemics

  15. What Have We Learned from Other Systems? • Early warning systems can save lives (e.g., hurricanes, famine) • Climate is only one of many determinants that can help in early warning systems • Early warning of a crisis is no guarantee of prevention • Capacity and willingness to respond is essential

  16. Summary points • Climate/weather information may be useful to the Health Cluster (specifically) and the health sector (generally) to strengthen existing surveillance systems • Clear implications in terms of climate change • Early warning systems only provide warning  effective preparedness and response still required if EWS info is to have any impact

  17. Discussion • How is this type of information currently used, or could be made more useful, for other Clusters and sectors in the Pacific?

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