Seed orchards in a warm future With particular attention to the Swedish case

1. Seed orchards in a warm futureWith particular attention to the Swedish case Dag Lindgren, SLU, Sweden Johan Westin, Skogforsk, Sweden Finnvid Prescher, SvenskaSkogsplantor, Sweden IUFRO conference Seoul 2010 August 25, 2010 http://daglindgren.upsc.se/iufro10/

2. Summary • Seed orchards are important, and become more important! • Global warming requires immediate reaction! • React now, but do not overreact! Photo: Dag Lindgren

3. Global warming • Global warming should be considered a fact Global warming has been unsure – now we have to deal with it as a matter of fact! It will become warmer the next century! • Accelerating human impact Human has an accelerating impact on environment and climate. Now stronger than ever before! • How many degrees can the forests tolerate?The forest can tolerate some degrees raise because of phenotypic plasticity, management, resilience and genetic diversity. – But at a cost and there is a limit! • Immediate action seems required!

4. Immediate action is needed! • “Do nothing” is not optimal and probably leads to a catastrophe next century! • Evolution and Natural gene migration takes much too long time for forest trees! • We must start practicing to manage environmental change! That includes planting, long term breeding and seed orchards.

5. More seed orchards is a response to an uncertain warmer future • Predictable and reproducible Seed orchard seeds are more predictable and reproducible than stand seeds. • Environmental friendlySeed orchards are the most environmental friendly way to increase forest production. • Seed for variable conditions Orchard clones origin from a wide range of stands and objects and are tested on a range of sites. This gives seeds suitable for variable conditions. • Genetic diversityA sufficient number of clones results in genetic diversity and flexibility.

6. Renewable resourcesSeed orchards create renewable resources, which replaces fossil! • SequesteringMore sequestering of carbon dioxide • Permanent removal of carbon dioxideSeed orchards today may help removing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for ever. Forest products will be coupled to the developing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology. • FlexibleSeed orchards are easily modified to new environments (by rouging, selective harvest and changed target area).

7. Facilitates seed productionWarmer climate facilitates seed production for sites in northern Sweden with a harsh climate • Local adaptation looses its relevanceThe argument that an autoctoneous provenance reflects local adaptation looses its relevance with global warming and environmental change. • Economically strong forestry.Seed orchards contributes to an economically stronger forestry.

8. How prepared is Sweden for an uncertain future? • Flexible species and populations in the north Northern latitudes have experienced repeated glaciations, and thus got species and populations able to deal with environmental change. The genetic variation is large. Heat is positive and drought not limiting. • Seed orchards used Seed orchards are used for more than half of the plantations and the figure is increasing. • Genetic variation on landscape level There is more genetic variation among stands now than ever before. There are natural stands, trees on impediments, planted forests with differently transferred materials and different degrees of improvement.

9. Swedish breeding has prepared for an uncertain future! The structuring of long term breeding and testing supporting seed orchards is organized in many (≈20) subpopulations targeted by Temperature Climate (heat sum) & Light climate (latitude).

10. Sweden in light and temp = testing area for a breeding population (overlaps with other BP) = breeding population target

11. Breeding materials will now be tested over a slightly wider range of environments as response to uncertain environmental change! = testing area for a breeding population (overlaps with other BP)

12. Suggestion for current genetic decisions • Act nowas if temperature will rise two degrees between 1991-2090; one degree 1991-2040! • Accept direct temperature related consequences (average temperature, heat sum, phenology, etc.) • Neglect other possible changes which has not already occurred (e.g. precipitation, wind, continentality, parasites, pests, deceases). They are important, but magnitude and effects are still uncertain! • Be prepared to modify actions within a decade!

13. Why two degrees in a century? • Few scenarios predict less than two degrees rise in a century neither for Sweden, nor the world. • Safe – if no warming, actions will cause limited loss. • Conservative, better to start with changes in the right direction, than have to change in opposite direction 2020. • For immediate use, while waiting for better guidelines! • There are political decisions not to tolerate more. It sends a signal to the politicians to keep their promises and that forestry reacts on the signals! • Simple and transparent!

14. Uncertain forecasts!Weather forecasts of temperature one and two days ahead in my hometown. The standard error two days ahead is in magnitude 2 degrees, the same as predicted change in a century! Tempforcastedone or twodaysbefore

15. The variation between adjacent years is often two degrees and decade averages vary more than a degree

16. Why start temp raise1990? • The period 1961-1990 is a meteorological standard period, it is most logic and simple to start from 1990! • Swedish experience of transfers is mainly based on before 1990 events. • Till 1990 the ”warming” looked insignificant, small and was shadowed by natural fluctuations.

17. How to mimic temperature change for deployment of genetic materials in Sweden? • Reduce the “virtual” elevation of the sites by 3.3 m annually. • Logic reduction! Physics says that air cools when lifted! An air package cools around 0.6 degree/100 m. • Observed temperature in Swedish vegetation period sinks almost 0.6 degree/100 m! (less in winter). • Predicted temp rise corresponds to 3.3 meters per year. • Effects of temperature change in Sweden can be evaluated from existing trials! This has been codified in a program available on the web used for Swedish reforestation (Skogforsk “Planters guide”)

18. Sweden mapped in temp and lat 2030 Sweden Sinks! 1990 = breeding population target

19. Two time perspectives • I suggest to consider fresh plantations, the mature forest is more resilient. In the near future: • Forest plantation. Assume conditions 2018 (half a degree temperature rise) . • Seed orchard establishment. It takes decades till seed production. Assume conditions 2046 (one degree temperature rise). Photo Davorin Kajba

20. Optimal plantation site for some seed orchard crops in a warmer climate • ”Planters guide” I used the Skogforsk program ”Planters guide” for predicting ”production” of a FRM as a function of the latitude and elevation of the plantation site. • Scots pine in northern SwedenScots pine seed orchards in northern Sweden were analyzed. (This is not typical for world). • Optimum changes less than a latitudeThe optimum of a new seed orchard seemed to change a latitude or less (at const elevation) considering global warming. This made a few percent difference for production. • Probably more important in other scenariosThe effect seems small, but may be larger for other cases, and even a few percent is much in cubic meters.

21. Suggestion for recruitment in Sweden for a warmer climate • Lower elevations rather than southern latitudesIt seems safer to recruit clones performing well at lower elevations than at more southern latitudes to respond to a warmer climate. Only heat changes with elevation. With latitude also the ”light climate” changes, which is very important at high latitudes. The southern may be adapted to another light climate, but for the lower only heat changes. • Low elevation BPs get priorityThe Swedish program has partly foreseen such a change and made more effort on low (as well as high) altitude BP than motivated from current plantations. Now this foresight can be cashed in. Thus more breeding efforts is suggested to go into current low altitude BP and less in current high altitude BP.

22. End • Thanks for attention Photo Yousry El-Kassaby