“The Biofuel Delusion” + reflections on teaching ecological economics

1. “The Biofuel Delusion” + reflections on teaching ecological economics With application to ZeroCarbonBritain 2030 (CAT) Nick Bardsley, University of Reading

2. "The Biofuel Delusion" Source: Giampietro and Mayumi (2009) The Biofuel Delusion; hereafter ‘G&M’

3. Ecosystem Metabolism • In a zoo: • 4 tigers / 10,000m2; 250kg each = 0.1kg/m2 • Zoo maintains distance from thermodynamic equilibrium by importing food (operating as open system) • Equivalent forest area supporting 4 tigers = 5000 x 10,000m2 = 50km2

4. Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html

5. Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html

6. Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html

7. A Biofuel Society? Fossil fuel scenario = 20 GJ/capita/yr→ metabolic rate ES = 2 000 000 000 J/hr = 2,000 MJ/hr (840 GJ/capita/yr) & (10hrs/capita/yr)→ metabolic rate ES = 84,000, 000 000 J/hr = 84,000 MJ/hr We would need to boost the power level in the energy sector by a factor of 40 (source: G&M) So how much could biofuel substitute for fossil fuel?

8. Source: G&M

9. MacKay (2008): Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air • Biomass • Harvestable power = 100 W/m2 • η = 2% (max); 2 W/m2 • realistically 0.5 W/m2 Smil (2003): max. 0.05W/m2: biofuels: energy for energy, infrastructure

10. Estimates of Land Use and Labour Requirements with O/I at 1.1/1 • Italy: 121GJ/c/yr • 30% of liquid transport fuel = 94% of work hours in the energy sector >7x land currently in agricultural production (G&M) • USA: 300GJ/c/yr • 10% of liquid transport fuel = 48% of potential labour supply hours >31 x land currently in agricultural production (G&M) • Zero Carbon Britain 2030: 112.6 tWh/yr = 0.4EJ/yr Net • Gross liquid fuel supply requirement of 4.4EJ 247,000,000t odm/yr = 15m ha = >2.5x arable land in GB ~70% land Assumes i) conversion of odm to LF powered by odm ii) 16 t/ha/yr Switchgrass yield = top of the stated range (1-16t) (own calculations)

11. This shows a net injection of energy from biofuels. But this implies a gross output of biofuels 11x this amount if the output/input ratio is comparable to that of first generation biofuels (1.1/1). Internal 'energy for energy' loops are not shown. (Diagram from ZeroCarbonBritain 2030, p368)

12. What properties would '2nd gen' biofuels need to do better? "When looking for an alternative energy source to oil, it is completely irrelevant whether the output/input ratio is 1.5/1, 1.2/1 or 1.8/1. Any energy source with an output/input of energy carriers below 5/1 has little chance of becoming a useful energy source for modern society." Giampietro & Mayumi (2009, p236)

13. Conclusion • G&M = an impossibility theorem for agrobiofuels • bar for '2nd generation' biofuels set very high • burden of proof is on proponents to demonstrate very high O/I ratios, spatial accommodation, independence from ff • OR restrict to a minor role in a peak-oil economy • Liquid transport fuel and land use in ZCB need rethinking

14. On trying to teach climate change (ecological) economics

15. "The Real World! Eurrrrrrghhhhhhhh!!! …….. I actually don't think they [NGOs, think tanks, other disciplines] are closer to the real world than we are." • Reader in economics (mainstream) • Context: leaving an economics department without an economics job lined up • Implication? we can understand the real world best by prioritising modelling abstractions

16. “you have to be very careful when you are criticising things people make a living from” • It's actually rare for academics to debate fundamental issues … it's not quite the done thing! • It’s not just a feature of economics departments

17. Currently: Lecturer in Climate Change Economics, University of Reading • Introduced new MSc 2011/12 • External referee: Richard Douthwaite • Compulsory modules in: i) ecological economics of climate change • ii) Climate change policy and governance

18. Dangers of Indiscriminate Fundraising in Academia • The School established, in an incremental and piecemeal fashion, a relationship with Libya. Before a global company embarks upon a relationship with a foreign partner, a due diligence assessment should be conducted. No similar exercise took place in this case. The links were allowed to grow, unchecked and to a degree unnoticed, until their effect was overwhelming. In October 2009, the LSE’s Council resolved that the links should be monitored carefully in future. That monitoring came too late. By October 2009 the relationship with Libya had been well established. • Woolf Report (2011) section 1.13

19. Disciplinary Reinforcers • Research • The RAE (aka REF) • Mono-disciplinary grant review panels • Mainstream enshrined in government e.g. "Green book" • Teaching • Covering absences • External examiners • Best known approaches, institutions attract applicants • Labour market (govt departments, business; mainstream economics = technological optimism)

20. Disciplinary Reinforcers • General • Power asymmetries within Universities; increasing minimum grant sizes • Understaffing: no time to learn anything new!

21. Robert Ulanowitz: Ascendency B A C F D E

22. Robert Ulanowicz: Ascendency B • Tendency for ecosystem linkages to become more concentrated over time • Emergence of mutually-beneficial sub-systems; these become more prominent • The most 'cooperative' elements are most robust, less cooperative elements fall away A F D E "Ecology: the Ascendent Perspective"

23. Why bother? Students are highly appreciative of courses that theorise and engage with real world issues and processes, as opposed to teaching modelling developed in isolation from facts and data