The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current StatusInclude Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 06 June 2016 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP GEFS Forecasts • Summary

3. Highlights:Last 7 Days • Below-average rainfall was observed over many places in Gulf of Guinea region. • Northern Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, CAR, western South Sudan and western Ethiopia received above-average rainfall. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall throughout portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, and southern Chad. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of northern DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, below-average rainfall was observed over eastern Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, southwestern Mali, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, local areas in western Niger, much of Nigeria, southern Cameroon, parts of southern and eastern Sudan, local areas in in northwestern Ethiopia, Uganda and eastern South Sudan. In contrast, local areas in western Guinea and eastern Liberia, southern cote d’Ivoire, northern Cameroon, local areas in Gabon, northern Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, western South Sudan, northern DRC, and western Ethiopia had above-average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Guinea, local areas in southern Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and Cameroon, southern Chad, much of CAR, South Sudan, southern and eastern Sudan, northern Congo Brazzaville, northern DRC, portions of western Kenya, many parts of Ethiopia, and South Africa. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, local areas in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, portions of southern Cameroon, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, central and southern DRC, Uganda, portions of Somalia, portions southern Ethiopia, and local areas in northern Tanzania.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Guinea, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, western Niger, portions of Ghana, Togo, Benin, local areas in Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, southern Chad, South Sudan, parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, northern DRC, much of Ethiopia, portions of Somalia and Kenya, Tanzania, southern Mozambique, Madagascar, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, eastern Namibia, and portions of South Africa. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over local areas in Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, local areas in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, portions of Nigeria, much of Angola, southern DRC, Namibia, local areas in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, portions of Uganda and Somalia, eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique , and portions of Madagascar and South Africa.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of eastern Mauritania, Mali, northern Guinea Conakry, Burkina Faso, Togo, Benin, western Niger, local areas in Nigeria, much of Cameroon, CAR, South Sudan, parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, portions of Somalia, local areas in Gabon, portions of DRC, many parts of Kenya, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, portions of Zambia, portions of western Angola, many parts of Botswana, portions of Madagascar, and western South Africa. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over portions of southern Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, much of Cote d’Ivoire, central and southern Ghana, southern Nigeria, portions of southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, eastern Gabon, central Congo Brazzaville, portions of DRC, local areas in southern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, local areas in northern and eastern Kenya, Uganda, Angola, much of Namibia, eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, portions of Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, portions of South Africa, and coastal Madagascar.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected locations shows that seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over parts of Ghana (bottom left) and Uganda (bottom right). Moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over many parts of South Sudan(top right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days At 200hPa level (right panel), anomalous upper-level cyclonic-circulation with its associated upper-level convergence may have contributed to the suppressed rainfall over West Africa.

10. NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 07 – 13 June, 2016 Week-2: Valid 14 – 20 June, 2016 For week-1 (left panel) and week-2 (right panel), there is an increased chance for weekly rainfall totals to exceed 50mm over portions the Gulf of Guinea countries, and local areas in the Central Sahel, and western Ethiopia.

11. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 07 – 13 June, 2016 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall throughout portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, and southern Chad: Anomalous lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of northern DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan: Anomalous lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

12. Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks 14 – 20 June, 2016 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over several countries in the Gulf of Guinea region: Anomalous lower-level divergence, with upper-level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall across northern DRC and northern Congo: An area of anomalously strong lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary • During the past seven days, below-average rainfall was observed over eastern Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, southwestern Mali, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, local areas in western Niger, much of Nigeria, southern Cameroon, parts of southern and eastern Sudan, local areas in in northwestern Ethiopia, Uganda and eastern South Sudan. In contrast, local areas in western Guinea and eastern Liberia, southern cote d’Ivoire, northern Cameroon, local areas in Gabon, northern Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, western South Sudan, northern DRC, and western Ethiopia had above-average rainfall. • During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Guinea, local areas in southern Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and Cameroon, southern Chad, much of CAR, South Sudan, southern and eastern Sudan, northern Congo Brazzaville, northern DRC, portions of western Kenya, many parts of Ethiopia, and South Africa. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, local areas in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, portions of southern Cameroon, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, central and southern DRC, Uganda, portions of Somalia, portions southern Ethiopia, and local areas in northern Tanzania. • During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over portions of Guinea, portions of Cote d’Ivoire, parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, western Niger, portions of Ghana, Togo, Benin, local areas in Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, southern Chad, South Sudan, parts of southern and eastern Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, northern DRC, much of Ethiopia, portions of Somalia and Kenya, Tanzania, southern Mozambique, Madagascar, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, eastern Namibia, and portions of South Africa. In contrast, below-average rainfall was observed over local areas in Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, local areas in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, portions of Nigeria, much of Angola, southern DRC, Namibia, local areas in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, portions of Uganda and Somalia, eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique , and portions of Madagascar and South Africa. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall throughout portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, and southern Chad. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of northern DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan.