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PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY. We cannot predict the future. When we make decisions, we instinctively use probability theory. 3 of your friends go to Frizzie’s Beauty Parlor. 2 of them emerge BALD!. FRIZZIE’S Beauty Parlor. You decide that you will never go to Frizzie’s.

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PROBABILITY

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  1. PROBABILITY

  2. We cannot predict the future. When we make decisions, we instinctively use probability theory.

  3. 3 of your friends go to Frizzie’s Beauty Parlor 2 of them emerge BALD! FRIZZIE’S Beauty Parlor You decide that you will never go to Frizzie’s

  4. 4 of your friends buy cars at FBN (Fly By Night) Autos 2 of them are lemons FBN AUTOS You decide that you will never buy a car from FBN

  5. 3 of your friends ski Mount Killerdare 2 of them break legs You decide that you will never ski Mount Killerdare.

  6. CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING GAME: A box contains 3 black and 5 white marbles. Draw one marble from the box. You win if it is black.

  7. A box contains 3 black and 5 white marbles. Draw one marble from the box. You win if it is black. There are 3 chances out of 8 of winning this game. We say that the probability of winning = 3/8 = .375 = 37.5% Note: there are two numbers involved in this measurement - the number of ways to win (# favorable outcomes) and the total number of marbles (# possible outcomes)

  8. A box contains 3 black and 5 white marbles. When the game is to draw just one marble from the box, we can intuitively measure the probability of getting a black marble. Now change the game slightly. Draw two marbles at once from the box. You win if both are black. When counting the favorable outcomes you must consider …. When counting the possible outcomes you must consider …. There are 28 pairs of marbles in this box!

  9. We must develop techniques for counting!

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