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Ground Effects Topical Group

Ground Effects Topical Group. Introduction & Purpose Nominations for Chair of GETG Space Situational Awareness & Secure Energy Supplies Science Outlook on Cycle 24 Can we forecast GIC and in what way? Can we estimate ground effects climatology (GIC, EM-field data)?

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Ground Effects Topical Group

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  1. Ground Effects Topical Group • Introduction & Purpose • Nominations for Chair of GETG • Space Situational Awareness & Secure Energy Supplies • Science Outlook on Cycle 24 • Can we forecast GIC and in what way? • Can we estimate ground effects climatology (GIC, EM-field data)? • A science data centre for GIC research? • Open Contributions & Updates • FMI • NRCan • BGS

  2. Topical Groups General Terms of Reference • Open to all SWWT members • Responsible for • Initiating thematic projects • Discussing progress/advances • At ESWW • By email discussions • Promoting related ESA space weather activities within Europe and to other communities

  3. GETG Terms of Reference: Includes (but is not limited to) activities such as  Modelling the occurrence of geomagnetic variations and geoelectric fields during space weather events  Modelling GIC in electric power systems (discrete earthing)  Modelling GIC in buried pipeline networks (continuous earthing)  Measurements of geomagnetic variations, geoelectric fields and GIC  Development of forecast techniques of GIC based on neural networks or on physical models  Collaboration with power and pipeline industry on GIC research  Advice on and forecast of geomagnetic activity to users, such as oil drilling and prospecting industry and aeromagnetic survey enterprises

  4. http://www.lund.irf.se/getg/index.html

  5. What Did We Discuss in 2007? • 1. List of members, Terms of Reference, Review of Actions • 2. GETG Web Activities • Home Site update (Magnus Wik, Sweden) • Created/edited Wikipedia articles on ‘Space Weather’ and ‘GIC’ • 3. GETG and Engineering Conferences/Journals • Risto Pirjola – ‘EUROEM 2008’ + discussion on outreach to industry • 4. Space situational awareness and the SWWT • Mike Hapgood (Chair SWWT) + discussion on FP7 opportunities • 5. Reports on new research work and publications (2006-2007) • Alan Thomson (UK) – begun new scientific study for UK grid risk • Larisa Trichtchenko (Canada) – outreach activities at North America industry conferences • Pavel Hejda (CZ) – study of pipeline GIC in Czech Republic gas network • Jurgen Watermann (DMI) – DMI concentrating now on data collection and remote sensing, not space physics • Risto Pirjola (FMI) – active GIC research e.g. with Brazil, Sweden, …

  6. Ground Effects Topical Group • Introduction & Purpose • Nominations for Chair of GETG • Space Situational Awareness & Secure Energy Supplies • Science Outlook on Cycle 24 • Can we forecast GIC and in what way? • Can we estimate ground effects climatology (GIC, EM-field data)? • A science data centre for GIC research? • Open Contributions & Updates • FMI • NRCan • BGS

  7. BACKGROUND • Space Situation Awareness is a concept that reflects our increasing dependence on space systems – telecom, navigation, surveillance, etc. • Originates from US military – but civilian systems are equally vulnerable. • Europe needs to develop both policy and capacity. • ESA developing a proposal for late 2008. This is seen to have three axes: • Survey, Tracking, • Imaging • Space weather (space environment monitoring) • Proposal to Council next week • Less obvious what is role of ‘ground effects community’ • ‘Spin-off’ from main scope of SSA plan? • But may give us a role in shaping policy in this area

  8. Secure Energy Supplies • Future electricity for Europe • DC links to solar plants in N Africa • DC links to transfer wind energy from UK, Denmark, … • DC links to distribute geothermal energy from Iceland, … • GIC concerns for Europe to consider?

  9. Secure Energy Supplies High voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines have lower losses (3% per 1000km) compared to AC. HVDC cables carry more power for the same thickness of cable compared with AC but are only suited to long distance transmission as they require expensive devices to convert the electricity, usually generated as AC, into DC. HVDC also used to transfer electricity between different countries that might use AC at differing frequencies. HVDC cables can also be used to synchronise AC produced by renewable energy sources.

  10. Open Questions on SSA/Secure-Energy/FP7 Issues • Relevance of ‘Ground Effects’ community to ESA? • What is current ESA thinking in terms of GE? • E.g. networks of magnetometers required for SSA? • And are there spin-offs from networking magnetometers of benefit to the SW science and applications community? • Are there magnetic and other data products required (now) and in what form (e.g. via SWENET)? • Timelines • What has changed on SSA in past 12 months? • What will change in next 12 months? • Do we need to organise a GETG contribution/submission? • Or are inputs requested and coordinated through the SWWT? • Are national governments involved? • E.g. Is lobbying needed at a local level? • Is there funding involved to develop science and applications!? • E.g revitalising the GREPON project under FP7: is there a new AO? • July 2007 FP7 call on ‘Space’ – space weather may be included?

  11. Ground Effects Topical Group • Introduction & Purpose • Nominations for Chair of GETG • Space Situational Awareness & Secure Energy Supplies • Science Outlook on Cycle 24 • Can we forecast GIC and in what way? • Can we estimate ground effects climatology (GIC, EM-field data)? • A science data centre for GIC research? • Open Contributions & Updates • FMI • NRCan • BGS

  12. Science Outlook on Cycle 24 • GIC forecasts • The development and forecast of different GIC ‘indices’ for different power utilities. • How realistic is this task? • Climatology of GIC on the global scale (both probability and levels) from • An assessment of GIC risk directly from any GIC data that are available • Climatology of support data (geomagnetic data, telluric data, and so on). • A Data Centre for GIC research? • There are plenty of sparse measurements of GIC in power systems, PSP in pipelines, perhaps currents in phone cables and some telluric electric fields in locations close to power systems or pipelines. • These were used for papers, reports and then were forgotten. • The idea is whenever it is possible (because some industries are very sensitive to proprietary information) to make these data/metadata open and keep them in such a way that they can be reached and used by other groups with proper recognitions/co-authorship. • How could/would/should we organise this activity? • Through the GETG web page?: http://www.lund.irf.se/getg/index.html • Through the European Space Weather portal?: www.spaceweather.eu

  13. Science Outlook: Open Questions • Forecasts • Of dB/dt, surface E-field, EM Indices, -> SWENET, … • Who is doing what, or plans to study what? • Linear, non-linear techniques • Climatology • E.g. specify return levels of activity (GIC, dB/dt, …) • Spatial and temporal change in quantities over solar cycle • Data Centre • Through GETG directly or a subset? • Website with data • GETG website: http://www.lund.irf.se/getg/index.html • European space weather portal (COST724): www.spaceweather.eu • Funding • FP7 networks • National funding

  14. Extreme Value Theory: Hourly Rate-of-Change of Field at Eskdalemuir • Fit a ‘Generalised Pareto Distribution’ (GPD) to these distributions of abs(dH/dt), abs(dD/dt) • Examine dependence on SSN and use de-clustering to remove ‘clumps’ due to same storm Threshold=100 nT/hr Threshold=0.20 deg/hr

  15. Return Levels – dH/dt Top: Threshold = 100 nT/hr; Bottom: Threshold = 200 nT/hr + dependence of fit parameters on daily sunspot number

  16. Return Levels – dD/dt Top: Threshold = 0.20 degree/hr; Bottom: Threshold = 0.50 degree /hr + dependence of fit parameters on daily sunspot number

  17. Ground Effects Topical Group • Introduction & Purpose • Nominations for Chair of GETG • Space Situational Awareness & Secure Energy Supplies • Science Outlook on Cycle 24 • Can we forecast GIC and in what way? • Can we estimate ground effects climatology (GIC, EM-field data)? • A science data centre for GIC research? • Open Contributions & Updates • FMI: Manitoba, China? • NRCan • BGS

  18. Recent BGS Work • PhD Student – BGS (geophysics) and University of Lancaster (space physics) • Analysed earthing impedance interactions between ‘near-neighbour’ (<1km) high voltage transformers in grid (c.f. Pirjola 2008) • Will analyse impact on grid GIC from high voltage line removal or addition • Workshop on GIC risk in UK and South Africa in December 2008, at Hermanus, funded by UK Royal Society grant. • Recent joint proposal made with Scottish Power on cycle 24 projects • Planning grid developments 2010-2015, HV autotransformers, 5-limb transformer GIC risk?, HPDC links mentioned.

  19. Cockenzie Smeaton

  20. Gaunt and Coetzee, IEEE Proceedings 2007 UK/South-Africa Workshop on GIC • Meeting with (academic) power engineers from SA • Discussing geophysics, space physics and GIC • Areas where we can learn from each other • Modelling, monitoring, space physics, GIC effects • Areas where we need to work together • Improving accuracy of power grid models • 3D source fields • Conductivity of Earth

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