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Partnering: Civil Engineering Department Middle East Technical University (METU) Ankara, Turkey

InMoSion: Science Shop for Innovative Mobility Solutions for Mobility Challenged Europeans 3rd INTERNATIONAL MEETING ANKARA, TURKEY. Partnering: Civil Engineering Department Middle East Technical University (METU) Ankara, Turkey. Leader: METU Person-months: 14

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Partnering: Civil Engineering Department Middle East Technical University (METU) Ankara, Turkey

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  1. InMoSion:Science Shop for Innovative Mobility Solutions for Mobility Challenged Europeans3rd INTERNATIONAL MEETINGANKARA, TURKEY Partnering:Civil Engineering Department Middle East Technical University (METU) Ankara, Turkey

  2. Leader: METU Person-months: 14 Partners: UTH HIT METU EIVP CTL SRM MP 3 1 3 1 0 2 4 Start-End : 1st -12th month Deliverables: D.2.1: Report on the survey (completed questionnaires) (Month 6) – Part I D.2.2: Analysis of the questionnaires and documentation of results (Month 12) – Part II  Objectives: This work package aims to identify all the needs that may be involved in a system like this and will help to integrate these needs into process’s design and finally into model’s deployment. WP2 User Needs for a Demand Driven Paratransit System

  3. Work Description The statistical analysis of the survey mainlydeals with Mobility in the region Forecast for the travel demand in the region Forecast for the market share of paratransit WP2 -Part II

  4. TASK 1: Evaluation of Randomness of Sample TASK 2: Origin-Destination Matrices for the Survey Sample TASK 3: Mobility Analysis TASK 4: Trip Characteristics TASK 5: Evaluation of Existing Transport System TASK 6: Expectations from Paratransit System TASK 7: Regression Analysis for Trip Number Estimation TASK 8: Market Share Estimation  Guidelines on know-how for local authorities WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(as presented at Bologna Meeting)

  5. TASK 1: Evaluation of Randomness of Sample TASK 2: Origin-Destination Matrices Gender Based Departure Time Based Trip Duration Based TASK 3: Mobility Analysis 3.1: Weekly Trip Number Based Mobility Analysis Gender Based Age Based Income Based Mobility Analysis Employment and Main Occupation Based WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(as presented at Bologna Meeting)

  6. TASK 4: Trip Characteristics Home Based Trips with Returns Commute Pattern in the Sample Data TASK 7: Regression Analysis for Trip Number Estimation Aggregate Weekly Trip Number Estimation Linear Regression Models WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(as presented at Bologna Meeting) The Total Number of Weekly Trips Estimates for Age Groups Based on Regression Models.

  7. TASK 3.2:Distance Based Mobility Analysis Two distance based mobility measures are defined Person.km mobility (person.km/traveler/week) Average trip length (person.km/trip) person.km/person.trips Gender Based Age Based Departure Time Based Income Based Employment Status/Main Occupation Based WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting) Cross tables are prepared

  8. TASK 5: Evaluation of the Existing Transport System Participants are asked for the evaluation of the existing transportation system in order to determine the insufficiencies and to make the system better. What is your opinion of the existing public transport system ? WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  9. TASK 5: Evaluation of the Existing Transport System Age Factor Income Level Factor Main Occupation Factor WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  10. TASK 6: Expectations from Paratransit System Willingness to use Willingness to pay Willingness to Wait to be Picked-Up Travel Time Preferences Willingness to Wait for Pick-up/Drop-Off Stops Willingness to Schedule Trips in Advance Personal Expectations  Trip Reservation Perception Evaluation  WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  11. TASK 8: Market Share Estimation Trip level scenario analysis is designed such that for every reported trip Using origin-destination information travel times and costs are determined for available modes (taxi, car and public transport) The modal split for each traveler is “estimated” from questionnaire number of weekly trips public transit use frequency taxi use frequency WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  12. TASK 8: Market Share Estimation For an assumed paratransit price scenario, desired limits are checked the price vs participant’s desired cost limit travel time vs participant’s desired travel time limit If both are satisfied  assign the trip as a “potential paratransit trip”  Total number of potential paratransit trips are obtained WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  13. TASK 8: Market Share Estimation Travel times and costs are determined for taxi, car and public transport. A table provided by Phillipi Region Travel Time Vtaxi = Vcar =70 kph Vpub.tr = 50kph + 10 min waiting time for public transport 1.2€ for distance ≤ 12 km 1.2+(distance-12)*0.1€ for 12 km< distance≤ 17 km 1.7 € for 17 km < distance ≤ 25 km 2.5 € for distance > 25 km WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting) Public Transport Cost

  14. WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting) Price Scenarios 1.7€ 2.0€ 2.3€ 2.5€ 2.7€ 3.0€

  15. TASK 8: Market Share Estimation For relatively shorter travel times (such as taxi or 1.5 times taxi travel time), cost is the main criterion in decision making, there is almost a constant level of demand for the price range of 2€ to 2.3€ uppler limit can be charged without significant level of loss of demand. Almost negative linear relation is observed between demand and price up to 2.7€, not sensitive to cost beyond this limit almost a constant level of demand desire to use paratransit WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  16. TASK 8: Market Share Estimation As the travel time increases, the potential number of paratransit decreases “0.5bus” level travel times generate more potential than the “1.5taxi” level more shorter trips in the regions (average taxi and bus trip travel times are calculated as approximately 10 minutes and 25 minutes). WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey(After Bologna Meeting)

  17. A General Paratransit Market Estimation Study A document describing general steps: Travel Demand Analysis Step 1 Trip Generation and Attraction Step 2 Trip Distribution Step 3: Mode Choice Step 4: Traffic (Route) Assignment Market Share Estimation for Paratransit • Logit Approaches • Simulation-/Scenario-based Approaches

  18. Ridership P1 P2 Price A General Paratransit Market Estimation Study The aimed outcomes would be determination of relationships between a) price and ridership, b) travel time and ridership, c) price and travel time.

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