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EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011

EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011. Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011. Summary. Metrics Atlantic Tropical Storm Season GPRA/New Metric Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011 Extended-Range skill Feedback

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EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011

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  1. EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011

  2. Summary • Metrics • Atlantic Tropical Storm Season • GPRA/New Metric • Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011 • Extended-Range skill • Feedback • CFSv2 forecasts • GFS • Future/New Products

  3. 39M (record #) hits in November, more than 1M/month since April, 2011

  4. ATLANTIC 14-19 Named Storms / 19 7-10 Hurricanes / 7 3-5 Major Hurricanes / 3 An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median. / 133 Tropical Storm Forecasts Official CPC product made in collaboration with NHC/NWS and HRD/NOAA EAST PACIFIC 9-15 named storms / 11 5-8 hurricanes / 10 1-3 major hurricanes, / 5 An ACE range 45%-105% of the median. / 113

  5. 2011 ACE Outlook In A Historical Perspective • ACE=∑ ∑ Vmax2 for all named storms while at least TS strength (4x daily). • 2011 is an above-normal season, reflecting continuation of high activity era. NS T

  6. 8-14-Day Official and NAEFST, P Forecast Performance Official Official NAEFS NAEFS Official, T

  7. GPRA: 48-month running mean of the HSS of 3-Month T outlooks at non-EC Stations SKILL ACTUAL SKILL GOAL 8 (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal)

  8. Skill*, DJF, JJA, T, P 3-Month Outlooks, 1995-2010 (*Fractional improvement over random x 100) DJF P DJF T 27 20 JJA T JJA P 32 12

  9. Above-Average 1 – Month Forecast Skill

  10. DJF 2010/2011 SST anomalies

  11. Spatial mean L0 seasonal P anomaly correlation V2 Compares with V1 over NOAM during 2011 Precipitation Global AVE: 0.40 0.33 T2m over land North America AVE: 0.33 0.25

  12. Spatial Mean L0 seasonal T anomaly correlation V2 Much Better than V1 over NOAM during 2011 Land T2m Global AVE: 0.19 0.25 JJA2010 North America AVE: 0.15 0.29

  13. Tropics/Sub-Tropics SST indices: V2 Much Lower Spread, More Accurate, than V1 Obs L0 Fcst L3 Fcst L6 Fcst Nino34 Nino34 DMI DMI MDR MDR CFSv2 CFSv1

  14. Wheeler-Hendon Diagrams of GEFS, Statistical Model MJO Forecasts

  15. V2 Forecast WH-MJO Index Much Better than V1

  16. Future: Dynamic (Interactive) Verification Web Tool 8-14 day T forecast reliability October, 2009-September 2010, Official and automated. 6-10 day T forecast reliability October, 2009-September 2010, Official and automated.

  17. Future: A New GPRA Metric

  18. Future: Dynamic POE (dPOE) Web Tool • Developed collaboratively with U. Arizona • Enables user interaction with observed 3-month data • Gives users numbers to associate with forecast classes. • User feedback obtained by CLIMAS

  19. Future: dPOE • Will Allow users to ask and answer questions about the meaning of a forecast

  20. Wishlist • More coordination on access to data from hindcasts and model simulations, • Coordination on model simulations to assess biases in the CFS, • Collaboration on understanding (and documentation) of biases for GFS upgrades, • Future of CFS?

  21. Summary • Metrics • Atlantic Tropical Storm Season • GPRA/New Metric • Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011 • Extended-Range skill • Feedback • CFSv2 forecasts • GFS • Future/New Products

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