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Counting Crime. Methods for Counting Crime? Current Crime Numbers/Trends Explaining the Crime Drop . Uniform Crime Reports. Self- Report Surveys. Victim Surveys. Methods of Measuring Crime. Based on Crimes Reported to the Police. Based on a population unit of 100,000 people.
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Counting Crime Methods for Counting Crime? Current Crime Numbers/Trends Explaining the Crime Drop
Uniform Crime Reports Self- Report Surveys Victim Surveys Methods of Measuring Crime
Based on Crimes Reported to the Police Based on a population unit of 100,000 people Divided into two representative categories: Indexed and non-Indexed Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate Uniform Crime Reports
Violent Crime Non-violent Crime • Part I “Index” Crimes • Criminal Homicide • Forcible Rape • Robbery • Aggravated assault • Burglary • Larceny/theft • Motor vehicle theft • Arson • Part II Crimes • All others except traffic Uniform Crime Reports
Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime Methodological Hiccups • Counting Rule • Reporting Practices • Attempted vs. Completed Crimes Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR
National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) • Maintained by the F.B.I. • Twenty-two crime categories • More information on each crime in each category • Data compiled based on incidents, not arrests. The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports
Self-Report Surveys • Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law Advantages • Get at “Dark Figure of Crime” • “Victimless Crimes” • Compare to “official data” • Measure theoretical concepts and connect with criminal behavior
Disadvantages • May underestimate “chronic offenders” • People Can Lie • Survey Methodology Problems • Seriousness of Offense • No “National” survey for trends • Exception = MTF for drugs/alcohol Self-Report Surveys
National Crime Victimization Survey 1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals 2. Nationally representative sample 3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations: Little information about offenders Cannot assess some crimes Limitations of Survey Research
UCR • Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known to police • Self-report • Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending • NCVS • Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations REVIEW
Crime Trends • Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable? • Why? • Correlates of Crime • What factors are related to crime? • Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender, Social Class? Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime
UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s • The decrease is being driven by a sharp decline in violent crime among juveniles. • NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime • Some difference with UCR data Crime Trends
The usual suspects • Age Composition • The Economy • Social malaise • Guns—Availability • Justice Policy—Police or Prisons • Reality? Difficult to predict trends Explaining Crime Trends
Again, think young males in inner city areas • Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars • The “blunt” era • Change in inner city culture • Mass incarceration • Freakonomics: Was it Abortion? The Crime Drop (1990s-present)
Demographics • Age • Sex • Race Correlates of Crime
UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that females are more likely than males to commit criminal acts • Socialization? • Biological differences? • Feminist explanations GENDER AND CRIME
SR weak if any relationship • Official data strong relationship • Is relationship due to bias? • How police patrol and interact with minorities • Disparity in how CJS processes minorities? • NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime? • Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture RACE AND CRIME
Crime is “young” persons game • HOWEVER • There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood • The “Chronic” 6% Age and Crime
Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults. Continuity of Crime Then and ………….. NOW
Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically • Most crime is intraracial • Victimization for most crimes most likely among • Young • Male • Urban Crime Victimization
We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime • How to assess insider trading, environmental crimes, corporate crime? • Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a settlement What is counted counts