1 / 15

Dr. Christian Lutz Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS)

First Meeting of the Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS), Paris, 22-24 September 2008. Rising fuel prices and trade. A macro-economic impact analysis for big traders with a focus on Germany by. Dr. Christian Lutz

tavita
Download Presentation

Dr. Christian Lutz Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. First Meeting of the Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS), Paris, 22-24 September 2008 Rising fuel prices and trade. A macro-economic impact analysis for big traders with a focus on Germanyby Dr. Christian Lutz Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbHHeinrichstr. 30 ° D – 49080 Osnabrück, Germany Tel.: + 49 (541) 40933-12 ° Fax: + 49 (541) 40933-11Email: lutz @ gws-os.de ° Internet: www.gws-os.de

  2. 1. Introduction: Oil price and GDP • Shock analysis • Vector autoregressive models: • GDP of oil-importing countries is negatively hit by oil price shocks;Darby (1982), Hamilton (1983) • Effect is asymmetric; Mork (1989) • nonlinear estimations: better results Lee et al. (1995), Hamilton (1996), Jimenez-Rodriguez / Sanchez (2005) • Structural econometric models • GDP of oil importing countries is negatively hit by oil price shocks (IEA 2004, EIA 2006) • differences between countries can be explained by structural differences of their economies. • positive effects of rising GDP of oil exporting countries are not easy to analyze. Accumulation of surplus stocks. (EIA 2006), (Jimenez-Rodriguez/Sanchez 2005)

  3. Introduction: Oil price and GDP 6 transmission channels for oil importers (Lardic and Mignos 2008) • Reduction of potential output, • negative terms of trade effects, • increased money demand, • inflation including second round effects, • negative demand side impacts, • structural changes

  4. Introduction: Oil price and GDP • Contribution of the paper: • Effects of a permanent rise (surplus stocks neglected) of the energy prices on a net energy importing country (Germany) including the international trade effects Three channels for trade effects: • change of goods imports of energy exporters induce goods exports of energy importers • depending on the regional and the goods structure of the exports of the importer • change of trade shares • depending on the price impact for goods in all countries • change of goods imports of energy importers • consumption to investment

  5. 2. GINFORS: Data Sources and Coverage • Data sources

  6. GINFORS: Data Sources and Coverage • Country Coverage country models OPEC ex. Indonesia ROW

  7. 3. GINFORS: Model Structure • Wheel of GINFORS: General architecture

  8. GINFORS: Model Structure • Country Model

  9. GINFORS: Model Structure • General architecture input-output models - final demand - intermediate demand - primary inputs macro models - balance of payment - SNA totals - budget of the government & private sector - labour market export demand import prices import demand export prices Bilateral multisector trade model (25 sectors + services) Bilateral multisector trade model (25 sectors + services) energy-emission models - final consumption - transformation - primary energy supply - emissions material models land-use models

  10. GINFORS: Model Structure • Trade model: • Export of good i in country k explained by: • Share of country k in the imports of good i in all other countries • Imports of good i in all other countries • Import price of good i explained by: • Weighted average of the export for good i of all countries • Weights: Trade shares • Shares are automatically estimated for • price dependency • time trends • 1994 - 2004

  11. 4. Scenarios • Oil price 200 $/bbl (HEP) against 100 $/bbl in 2010 (baseline) • Coal and gas prices proportionally

  12. 5. The results • Impacts on real GDP in 2010: HEP against baseline

  13. The results • Macroeconomic impacts in Germany – HEP against baseline in %

  14. The results • Impacts on industries in Germany – HEP against baseline in %

  15. 6. Conclusions • Energy importing countries may profit from higher energy prices via international trade • The case of Germany: • Improved terms of trade • Shift from consumption to investment • Additional exports of investment goods • GDP reduction only in the short run negatively • Consumers pay the bill • Further research is necessary for other countries • Impacts in a world of carbon or supply (peak oil) constraints?

More Related