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INPUT-OUTPUT: STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

INPUT-OUTPUT: STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY. DLI Ontario Training Guelph University, Guelph, ON April 11, 2006 Ronald Rioux Industry Accounts Division Statistics Canada. BASIC STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES. Rectangular Input-Output Tables developed at Statistics Canada

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INPUT-OUTPUT: STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

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  1. INPUT-OUTPUT:STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY DLI Ontario Training Guelph University, Guelph, ON April 11, 2006 Ronald Rioux Industry Accounts Division Statistics Canada

  2. BASIC STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES • Rectangular Input-Output Tables developed at Statistics Canada • Inputs and Outputs of industries are presented in separate rectangular tables, showing Industry by commodity detail, (number of commodities exceed number of industries) • Input-Output tables consist of 3 matrices 1. Make Matrix (Outputs) 303 industries 727 commodities 2. Use Matrix (Inputs) 303 industries 727 commodities 3. Final Demand Matrix 172 categories 727 commodities

  3. DIMENSIONS AND CONFIDENTIALITY CONSTRAINTS NAICS’s based Classifications: “W” “L” “M” “S” Industries 303 117 62 25 Commodities 727 469 111 59 Final Demand Categories 172 122 41 18 • Interprovincial I-O table adds final demand categories for Exports and Imports with each province/territory • National I-O tables are published at “S” level. The “S”, “M” and “L” levels are available on CANSIM II. • Interprovincial I-O tables are only publicly available at “S” level • Confidentiality constraints make it difficult to release provincial data at more disaggregated levels • Simulation model services are available using “W” level detail

  4. Detail of the 303 industries and the 172 categories of final demand 287 Industries (Business sector) 16 Industries (Non-business sector) 303 • 52 categories of consumer expenditures • 52 categories of current investment in machinery and equipment • 53 categories of current investment in construction • 4 categories of changes in inventories • 1 category of domestic exports • 1 category of re-exports • 1 category of imports • 6 categories of Federal, Provincial and Municipal expenses • 1 category of intreprovincial imports • 1 category of intreprovincial exports • 172

  5. BASIC STRUCTURE OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES Categories are reflected through all 13 provinces/territories Industries Industries Categories Gross output of commodities Final Demand 719 X 172 MAKE 719 X 303 USE 719 X 303 Commo dities = + = + + Final use of primary factors8 X 172 Industry use of primary factors 8 X 303 GDP income based + = = = = Gross output of industries Total use of industries GDP expenditure based =

  6. Industry Balance Account level S (2002) as an example • The total production value of any or all industries in the output table equals the sum of the intermediate inputs plus Gross Domestic Product inputs in the inputs table. • As an example, industry 5 for mining and oil and gas extraction, shows a production total value of 83639 million dollars in the 2002 outputs table. The same value of total inputs of this industry of 83639 million dollars is shown as the column total of the 2002 inputs table. The Gross Domestic Product inputs (at market price) shows as rows 52-59 is 53838million (64.4 % of total) and the intermediate inputs of goods and services is 29801 millions (35.6 % of total) shown as rows 1-51.

  7. Commodity Balance AccountLevel S (2002) as an example • The production of a commodity (supply) equals the sum (demand) of intermediate use (inputs table) plus final demand (final demand table) • The domestic production from Canadian industries of the row commodity 23, motor vehicle, other transportation equipment & parts is 136991 millions for all industries in the outputs table. • The Inputs table shows a total use of 66096 millions of this commodity plus final demand total use of 70895 millions equals 136991 millions

  8. Input-Output IdentitiesGross Domestic Product Market Price (2002) • Inputs table total column • sum of rows 52 to 59 • GDP market price inputs 1076839 • Plus Final Demand table total column • sum of rows 52-59 • GDP Market price Final Demand 77364 • Equals GDP market price • Income side 1154203 • Equals expenditures on GDP • grand total of Final Demand

  9. INPUT-OUTPUT DATA SOURCESI WITHIN STATISTICS CANADA BUSINESS AND TRADE STATISTICS INDUSTRY STATISTICS - Manufacturing Construction and Energy Division - Distributive Trades Division - Services Industries Division - Enterprise Statistics ECONOMY WIDE STATISTICS - Investment and Capital Stock Division - Industrial Organization and Finance Division - International Trade Division - Prices Division AGRICULTURE, TECHNOLOGY AND TRANSPORTATION STATISTICS - Agriculture Division - Transportation Division

  10. INSTITUTIONS AND SOCIAL STATISTICS- Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics - Health DivisionLABOUR AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS - Labour DivisionSYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS - Income and Expenditure Accounts - Balance of Payments Division - Public Institutions Division - Environment Accounts INPUT-OUTPUT DATA SOURCES I WITHIN STATISTICS CANADA

  11. INPUT-OUTPUT DATA SOURCES II OTHER FEDERAL DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES - Canada Revenue Agency (T4/T1/GIFI/GST files) - Department of Supply and Services - Natural Resources Canada - Department of Finance - Treasury Board - Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions - R.C.M.P. - National Transportation Agency - Oceans Canada - Health Canada - Bank of Canada

  12. INPUT-OUTPUT DATA SOURCES III OTHER SOURCES - Provincial and Territorial Governments - Municipalities - Petroleum Services Association of Canada - Colliers Canadian Real Estate Review - TSE - Investment Funds Institute of Canada - Investor Protection Fund - Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association - Annual Reports

  13. VALUATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT CELLS • All Cells must be valued consistently in order for tables to balance • For Analytical Uses I-O tables are valued at producer prices • Producer Price = selling prices at boundary of the producing establishment (in manufacturing, “factor gate” price) excluding all taxes • Purchaser Price = valuation of commodities purchased by industries and final demand sectors • Margins = There are 7 types of margins that are used to convert between purchaser and producer price valuations: retail , wholesale, tax, transport, gas, storage and pipeline • I-O tables are first balanced in purchaser prices and subsequently in producer prices

  14. Producer to Purchaser valuation for a commodity Value • Domestic plant produce a good g3 60 • Good is transported to a wholesaler 1 • Good is bought by a wholesaler 61 • Good is sold by the wholesaler to a retailer 68 Wholesale margins 7 • At point of sale tax is levied 12 • Final purchaser value to the buyer sold by retailer plus tax 80

  15. Purchaser to producer price valuation of Inputs to a buyer • Suppose the good valued at 80 is a input to an industry which also buys other goods and services and GDP components • The purchaser price to producer price maybe shown

  16. Inputs for an Industry

  17. PROVINCIAL AND INTERPROVINCIAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES • A Provincial Input-Output table looks identical to the National • An Interprovincial Input-Output table accounts for economic linkages among the provinces and territories, adding 24 final demand categories for exports and imports for each province and territory

  18. C = Consumption (personal expenditure) I = Investment INV = Inventory Change G = Government current expenditure XI = International exports MI = International imports XP = Provincial exports MP = Provincial imports Accounting framework for the Canadian Provincial Input-Output Accounts Categories are reflected through all 13 provinces/territories

  19. Interprovincial Trade Flow Matrix Categories reflect 719 commodities and indirect taxes on products by province. Ix =International exports Pxi=Provincial exports Im=International imports Pmi=Provincial imports

  20. Interprovincial Trade Flows In addition to international exports and imports, we show provincial exports and provincial imports. This introduces three additional constraints. A) Across regions, total regional imports equal total regional exports, net (interregional) trade balances of regions sums to zero. B) Sum of foreign exports (foreign imports) of regions equal total national exports (imports). C) Across regions, total supply equals total disposition.

  21. CONVENTIONS FORINTERPROVINCIAL FLOWS 1. Exportscan originate from a region if the goods or services are produced in that region or are withdrawn form inventories of establishments in that region. A regional export also occurs when services (e.g. hotel accommodations, meals or entertainment) are purchased within a region by a non-resident while staying in that region. 2. Importsare defined for a region if the goods or services are destined for the region's current expenditure, for capital formation in the region, used as intermediate inputs by establishments in that region, or make up additions to inventories.

  22. I/O treatment of imports and exports • Contrast this concept with imports and exports by port of lading or custom clearance. They are in many cases not consistent with true origin and destination. • Since goods and services are valued at approximate basic prices, interregional imports and exports are more complex as goods imported from another region may lead to import of various margins from other regions or abroad.

  23. Exports: purchaser’s price vs producer’s price The exports are valued at the border (purchaser’s price) which includes a transport margin. Ex: export of a good produced in a factory in Ontario Purchaser’s price: $15,000.00 Producer’s price (factory in Ontario): $10,000.00 Transportation margin (transporter from Manitoba) $ 5,000.00 Then: export at purch. price = $15,000.00 But: export from Ontario = $10,000.00 (good) export from Manitoba = $ 5,000.00 (transport margin) Conclusion: Only the producer’s price shows the true transactions.

  24. APPLICATIONS

  25. National time series in current price • Example : electric power • 199219931994 • G1 800 800 1000 • G2 - - 50 • G3 100 200 250 • S1 1000 1100 1200 • GDP 2500 2600 3000 • TOTAL 4400 4800 5500

  26. Example : electric power 1992 19931994 G1 18.18 18.75 18.18 G2 - - 0.91 G3 2.27 4.17 4.55 S1 22.73 22.92 21.82 GDP 56.82 54.17 54.54 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 Relative price change in G3 Change of technology in G2

  27. Outsourcing computer services Data: Time-series C$ I/O Tables (M level) Commodity #84: Business and computer services Industries: #43 (NAICS 541) - Professional, scientific and technical services & #44 (NAICS 561) - Administrative and support services CANSIM Table: 381-0014

  28. AAFC I/O Model (Based on extended agriculture industries)

  29. No Code Industries (W) 1 111400 Greenhouse, Nursery and Floriculture Production 2 111A00 Crop Production (except Greenhouse, Nursery and Floriculture Production 2a 111A01 Wheat 2b 111A02 Feed grain 2c 111A03 Oilseed 2d 111A04 Potatoes 2e 111A05 Fruits & Vegetables 2f 111A06 Other Crops 3 112500 Animal Aquaculture 4 112A00 Animal Production (except Animal Aquaculture) 4a 112A01 Dairy 4b 112A02 Cattle 4c 112A03 Hogs 4d 112A04 Poultry and eggs 4e 112A05 Other livestock 7 115100 Support Activities for Crop Production 8 115200 Support Activities for Animal Production

  30. Statistics Canada’s SPSD/M The Social Policy Simulation Database and Model

  31. The SPSD/M • Statistics Canada’s SPSD/M is an integrated database and tax/transfer simulation model • The SPSD/M concentrates on calculating the first round impacts of Canadian tax/transfer policy on individuals and families • Income taxes, payroll taxes, cash transfers, and commodity taxes. • It makes use of I/O data and modelling techniques to estimate the distributional impact of commodity taxes on families and individuals

  32. A new SNA module providing you with information at your fingertips!

  33. References • Hoffman et al., User’s Guide to Statistics Canada Structural Economic Models, Input-Output Division, Statistics Canada, 1980. • Miller, E. Ronald and Blair, Peter D., Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Prentice-Hall, New Jersey, 1985. • United Nations, Handbook of Input-Output Table Compilation and Analysis, Series F, No. 74, New York, 1999.

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