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Peak Oil There’s no silver bullet.

Peak Oil There’s no silver bullet. May 2008. Points for the Day. Peak oil is when flows can’t meet the demand. Peak Oil is probably happening about now . World exports are starting to drop. Diesel shortages will come first. Transit has a glorious future. A Short History of Peak Oil.

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Peak Oil There’s no silver bullet.

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  1. Peak OilThere’s no silver bullet. May 2008

  2. Points for the Day • Peak oil is when flowscan’t meet the demand. • Peak Oil is probably happening about now. • World exports are starting to drop. • Diesel shortages will come first. • Transit has a glorious future.

  3. A Short History of Peak Oil • 1956 Hubbert said US to peak in 1970 • 1970 US lower 48 peaks – imports begin. • 1970’s Lots of oil discovered – all is well. • 1998 Geologists start getting worried. • 2007 World conventional production peaks

  4. Analysts Look at the Future • Look at rate of depletion of producing countries • Watch the progress of new projects. • Estimate the demand for oil. • Calculate the balance. • They are saying shortages within 3 years. • The IEA in Paris • Most of the peak oil analysts • US DOE is starting to hint

  5. Situation in the US • Burning 21 million b/d and holding. • Importing about 12 million b/d • Refinery utilization low • Crude stocks average. • Gasoline stocks high. • Diesel/heating oils stocks low. • World exports are slowing.

  6. Top World Oil Net Importers • Rank Country Net Imports1 United States 12,2202 Japan 5,0973 China 3,4384 Germany 2,4835 Korea, South 2,1506 France 1,8937 India 1,6878 Italy 1,5589 Spain 1,55510 Taiwan 94211 Netherlands 93612 Singapore 78713 Thailand 60614 Turkey 57615 Belgium 546

  7. What is going to happen? • Fuel prices are going up and up! • Think $5 gasoline, possibly $6 soon. • Spot shortages possible anytime from disruptions (political, hurricanes) • Permanent diesel shortages likely first. • Europe, China, India, power shortages. • There is no obvious way to avoid this.

  8. Prices and Transit • Cost of fuel going way up. • Airlines already in big trouble • Demand for transit is increasing. • How fast? $5, $10, $20, a gallon or shortages? • The diesel shortage problem. • A working fuel. • Rationing.

  9. A Sudden Shortage • A few days or semi-permanent? • 5% shortfall will cause havoc (Think 1970s). • Gas lines = government intervention • Rationing • Car pools • Extended work schedules • Transit • Rapid expansion – hours, routes • Equipment. • Non-conventional vehicles • New services.

  10. Or an Evolving Crisis • Gasoline prices increase by a dollar a year • No lengthy shortages – No rationing. • Increasing demand for affordable transit. • Nothing to really trigger government response. • Realization that transit, not more roads is what is needed.

  11. Transit after the Peak(Life with less internal combustion) • In 3-10 years. • A lot less moving private cars. • A lot less air travel. • Most still residing in suburbia. • Most a lot poorer. • Useful assets • Lightly used highway lanes. • Great communications – cell and internet • Pretty good electric grid. • Lot of unemployed people.

  12. Transit will have to change • Diesel will be in short supply & expensive. • Hybrids, natural gas for awhile. • Efficiency is the key. • Electric vehicles are the future. • Service suburbia. • Not dense. • Goods as well as people.

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