Dynamic Dinosaur Ecosystems Simulation Modeling by Bill Yu

1. Dynamic Complex Dinosaur EcosystemsSimulation / ModelingBill Yu

2. Purpose • The purpose of my research project is to create a simulation of a many-species, non-static, many-variable ecosystem • According to user preferences, many desired ecosystem simulations will be able to be run. In my case, I am focusing limiting the species to the dinosaurs of the late Cretaceous era

3. Subject / Goals • The scope of my project will include hypothetical situations, which will be applicable to real-life, and possibly a real-world model • Based on known facts of the dinosaurs, the user will be able to input unknown or hypothetical facts about dinosaurs and thus create a possible simulation of what could have happened on our Earth in the Cretaceous era

4. Overview • Producer / Predator / Prey dinosaur ecosystem based on the late Cretaceous era with chance factors • Consequence algorithm for dinosaur conflicts • Trait accumulation • Reproduction algorithm for mutations and creations of new species • Natural disasters

5. Expected Results • I will validate success by the accuracy as represented by the common behavior of real world ecosystems • For example, if there are many carnivores preying on a few herbivores, the expected results in sequence would be: • 1 – Herbivores are near extinction / are extinct. • 2 – Carnivores begin to die out. • 3 – Grass regrows fully.

6. Other Research • Cellular Automata Model of Macroevolution: the constant evolution of a biomass of a multi-species system • A Jump-Growth Model for Predator-Prey Dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems: evolution to catch prey, equation to calculate populations • Predator-Prey Model: linear rate (Lotka-Volterra), group immunity (Kermack-McKendrick), constant uptake (Jacob-Monod), carrying maximum capacity (Logistic), self-predation (Ricker's)

7. Other Research • Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal Dinosaurs: energy-size ratio, warm-blooded / endothermic dinosaurs • Fossil Record of Predation in Dinosaurs: predatory features, consumption records, chemical analyses

8. Usage • Load the program • Use sliders • Hit 'Setup' • 'Step' for 1 iteration, 'Go' for continuous (adjusted by speed bar at the top)

9. Procedures / Methods • Using NetLogo • Accomplishing by building top-down, building simple, then advancing to more advanced functions • A complicated simulated system with many variables for the user to control • BehaviorSpace for data storage

10. Timeline • Q1 : Basics – Predator-prey, herbivore-producer, basic predation, modeling • Q2 : Dinosaur focus – narrowed late Cretaceous, predation range, additional 2 species, reproduction algorithm, prey selection algorithm, movement algorithm • By the end of the 3rd quarter I will probably have implemented many more dinosaur species. There could be more than one type of producer, water factors, geological factors, natural disasters, and possibly egg-periods where the offspring arrival into the ecosystem simulation is delayed (hatching)

11. Project Testing / Problems • Project testing simply consists of running the program and comparing it to the expected results, and finding inconsistencies with real-life dinosaur simulation possibilities and expected ecosystem results • The NetLogo program runs almost exclusively to working programs – if it's incomplete, it can not run, instead giving an error • Currently, my program runs existing methods without error

12. Algorithms • Grass regrowth • Generic consumption • Conflict sequence (nearly finished) • Predation range • Reproduction • Prey selection • Natural disaster (developing)

13. Hypothesis • Due to the harsh environment of the dinosaur ages, species fluctuations as the result of these powerful beasts' conflicts can cause an imbalance in the ecosystem. • Learning from the results given the specific parameters, based on the populations involved

14. Results • 1 Predator / High Energy Gain / High Reproduction • Invasive Species Effect