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Lecture 1b Technology Trends

Lecture 1b Technology Trends. Pradondet Nilagupta , KU (Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley). Original. Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes. 1988 Computer Food Chain. Mainframe. Work- station. PC. Mini- computer. Mini- supercomputer.

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Lecture 1b Technology Trends

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  1. Lecture 1bTechnology Trends Pradondet Nilagupta , KU (Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)

  2. Original Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes

  3. 1988 Computer Food Chain Mainframe Work- station PC Mini- computer Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer Massively Parallel Processors

  4. 1998 Computer Food Chain Mini- supercomputer Mini- computer Massively Parallel Processors Mainframe Work- station PC Server Now who is eating whom? Supercomputer

  5. Why Such Change in 10 years? • Function • Rise of networking/local interconnection technology • Performance • Technology Advances • CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance • Computer architecture advances improves low-end • RISC, Superscalar, RAID, … • Price: Lower costs due to … • Simpler development • CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components • Higher volumes • CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units • Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services

  6. 1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies ECL TTL MOS Mainframe Work- station PC Mini- computer Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer

  7. Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity “Graduation Window” Alpha 21264: 15 million Pentium Pro: 5.5 million PowerPC 620: 6.9 million Alpha 21164: 9.3 million Sparc Ultra: 5.2 million Moore’s Law • CMOS improvements: • Die size: 2X every 3 yrs • Line width: halve / 7 yrs

  8. Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM) year size(Mb) cyc time 1980 0.0625 250 ns 1983 0.25 220 ns 1986 1 190 ns 1989 4 165 ns 1992 16 145 ns 1996 64 120 ns 2000 256 100 ns

  9. CMOS Improvements Die size 2X every 3 yrsLine widths halve every 7 yrs 25 Die size increase plus transistor count increase 20 15 Transistor Count 10 5 Line Width Improvement Die Size 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992

  10. Future DRAMs (Spectrum 1/96) Year Smallest Die Size Bits/Chip Feature m sq. mm (Billions) • 1995 .35 190 .064 • 1998 .25 280 .256 • 2001 .18 420 1 • 2004 .13 640 4 • 2007 .10 960 16 • 2010 .07 1400 64

  11. Bytes 4K chips 8G 512 chips 1G 128M 64 chips workstation 8 chips-PC 8M 1M 640K DOS 128K limit 1/8 chip 1 chip Time 8K 1980 1990 2000 1970 1Kbit 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time

  12. Technology Trends(Summary) Capacity Speed (latency) Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years

  13. Processor frequency trend • Frequency doubles each generation • Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%

  14. 1000 Supercomputers 100 Mainframes 10 Minicomputers Microprocessors 1 0.1 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Processor PerformanceTrends Year

  15. 100 4K Mips (65 MHz) RISC 60% / yr. Mips o 25 MHz 10 9000 uVAX 6K ECL 15%/yr. (CMOS) o | Performance (VAX 780s) 8600 | MIPS (8 MHz) TTL MV10K 1.0 780 CMOS CISC uVAX 5 MHz Will RISC continue on a CMOS 38%/yr. 68K 60%, (x4 / 3 years)? 0.1 1990 1980 1985 Performance vs. Time

  16. Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now) 1.54X/yr

  17. Performance Trends(Summary) • Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months) • Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year

  18. 100000 10000 Workstation 1000 Instructions/second/$ 100 Super-mini 10 Mainframe 1 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Instructions/Second/$ vs. Time PC

  19. Processor Perspective • Putting performance growth in perspective: IBM POWER2 Cray YMP Workstation Supercomputer Year 1993 1988 MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS Linpack 140 MFLOPS160 MFLOPS Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$) Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB Memory 512 MB 256 MB • 1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!

  20. Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From? • Technology? • Organization? • Instruction Set Architecture? • Software? • Some combination of all of the above?

  21. Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation) 1000 Supercomputers 100 Mainframes 10 Minicomputers Microprocessors 1 CISC/RISC 0.1 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year

  22. Performance Trends Revisited(Technology Advances) Logic Speed: 2x per 3 years Logic Capacity: 2x per 3 years Leads to: Computing capacity: 4x per 3 years • If can keep all the transistors busy all the time • Actual: 3.3x per 3 years

  23. Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization) • Bit Level Parallelism • Pipelining • Caches • Instruction Level Parallelism • Out-of-order Xeq • Speculation • . . .

  24. What is Ahead? • Greater instruction level parallelism? • Bigger caches? • Multiple processors per chip? • Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems) • High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect

  25. Hardware Technology 198019902000 Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000 5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM) Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400

  26. Software Technology 198019902000 • Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff?? • Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT • User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ?? • Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile • New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances • Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ?? • DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC • WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus • Agents = robots that work on information

  27. Computing 2001 • Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years • 1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbytes) in 2002 • On-line 12-25 Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs • Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism ญ100 • Radio links for untethered computing

  28. Computing 2001 • Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ... Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers • We should be able to simulate: • Nearly everything we make and their factories • Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies • Performance implies: voice and visualEase of use. Agents!

  29. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities • Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling • Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ?? • Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail • Large, commercial transaction processing systems • Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )

  30. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities • Visualization & virtual reality • Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials • Mechanical engineering without prototypes • Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance. • Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers • Integration of the PC & TV => TC

  31. Challenges for 1990s Platforms • 64-bit computers • video, voice, communication, any really new apps? • Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability? • Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability? • Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?

  32. Challenges for 1990s Platforms • Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video • The true portable, wireless communication computer • Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer • Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?

  33. A glimpse into the future Silicon in 2010 Die Area: 2.5x2.5 cm Voltage: 0.6 - 0.9 V Technology: 0.07 m 15 times denser than today 2.5 times power density 5 times clock rate

  34. What is the next wave? Source: Richard Newton

  35. The Embedded Processor What? A programmable processor whose programming interface is not accessible to the end-user of the product. The only user-interaction is through the actual application.

  36. Examples: Sharp PDA’s are encapsulated products with fixed functionality - 3COM Palm pilots were originally intended as embedded systems. Opening up the programmers interface turned them into more generic computer systems.

  37. Some interesting numbers • The Intel 4004 was intended for an embedded application (a calculator) • Of todays microprocessors • 95% go into embedded applications • SSH3/4 (Hitachi): best selling RISC microprocessor • 50% of microprocessor revenue stems from embedded systems

  38. Some interesting numbers (cont.) • Often focused on particular application area • Microcontrollers • DSPs • Media Processors • Graphics Processors • Network and Communication Processors

  39. Components of Cost Area of die / yield Code density (memory is the major part of die size) Packaging Design effort Programming cost Time-to-market Reusability Some different evaluation metrics Power Cost Flexibility Performance as a Functionality Constraint (“Just-in-Time Computing”)

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