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R . Stern 1 ,, A. Graff 2

DISPERSION MODELLING WITHIN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES NEW AIR QUALITY FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE: LONG TERM MODELLING OF O 3 , PM10 and NO 2. R . Stern 1 ,, A. Graff 2 1 Free University Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, D-12165 Berlin, Germany

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R . Stern 1 ,, A. Graff 2

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  1. DISPERSION MODELLING WITHIN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES NEW AIR QUALITY FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE: LONG TERM MODELLING OF O3, PM10 and NO2 R. Stern1 ,,A. Graff2 1 Free University Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, D-12165 Berlin, Germany 3Umweltbundesamt, Postfach 330022, D-14191 Berlin, Germany 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  2. OBJECTIVES OF R&D-PROJECT FUNDED BY THE UMWELTBUNDESAMT: • DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A MODEL SYSTEM DESIGNED FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE EC FWD AND ITS DAUGHTER DIRECTIVES • TARGET SPECIES OF FWD: O3, NO2, NOX, SO2, PM10, CO, BENZENE • TARGET TIME SCALE OF FWD: HOURLY CONCENTRATIONS FOR THE WHOLE YEAR • COOPERATION WITH: TNO (EMISSIONS) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  3. MODEL CONCEPT MODEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE OF MEDIUM COMPLEXITY FOR LONG-TERM APPLICATIONS ONE-WAY NESTED MODEL CHAIN for • Regional Scale (Europe, Germany) • Urban Scale (Agglomeration area) • Local Scale (Street canyon, single sources) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  4. NEW MODEL FRAME REM/CALGRID (RCG):COMBINED 3-D REGIONAL/URBAN MODEL • Generalized horizontal coordinate systems, including latitude-longitude • Dynamic AND fixed multi-layer vertical mesh • New methodology to eliminate operator-splitting transport errors, ensure correct transport fluxes, conserve mass, and ensure that a constant mixing ratio field remains constant • Modified Walcek advection scheme (2000, JGR, 105, 9335-9348) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  5. NEW MODEL FRAME REM/CALGRID (RCG):COMBINED 3-D REGIONAL/URBAN MODEL • CBM4 or SAPRC-93 including Carter‘s 1-Product Isoprene scheme and (simple ) SO2 oxidation to SO4 • No aqueous-phase (cloud) chemistry • Equilibrium anorganic aerosol modules (MARS & ISORROPIA) • Updated dry (resistance) and wet (scavenging) removal modules • Emissions data interface for long term applications (On the fly calculations of hourly anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, scenario options) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  6. CURRENT PM10 CALCULATIONS • Emissions divided into primary PM2.5 and coarse fraction, PMCO = PM10-PM2.5 • CBM4 including SO2 oxidation to SO4 • Thermodynamic equilibrium aerosol module ISORROPIA for the sodium-ammonium-chloride-sulfate-nitrate-water aerosol system • Transport, wet & dry removal of aerosol components • PM10 total= PM2.5prim + PMCOprim + SO4 + NO3 + NH4 + NA + CL 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  7. LARGE AND URBAN SCALE DIAGNOSTIC METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM • Optimum Interpolation of synoptic and radiosonde data • Vertical Resolution: Isentropic surfaces 0 -10km • Time resolution: 3 h • 3-D: Wind, Temperature, Humidity, Density • 2-D: Cloud cover, Mixing Height, Rain, U*, MOL, surface wind, temperature 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  8. APPLICATION STATUS • EUROPEAN/NATIONAL SCALE (0.5° lon, 0.25° lat) RCG: 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 • URBAN SCALE (ca. 2x2 km2): RCG: BERLIN-BRANDENBURG: 1999 • LOCAL STREET CANYON SCALE: CPB: Berlin-Schildhornstrasse: 1999 • ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AIR QUALIY (1999, 2001): COMBINATION OF CALCULATIONS AND OBSERVATIONS (DATA ASSIMILATION) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  9. LARGE SCALE EMISSIONS EUROPE CORINAIR/TNO: NMVOC, NOX, CO, CH4, NH3 (1995) CEPMEIP (EMEP) PM10, PM25 (1995) Resolution 0.5° long, 0.25° lat URBAN SCALE EMISSIONS Emissions provided by Berlin, Brandenburg, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt (1999), resolution 2 km x 2 km BIOGENIC NMVOC, NOX EMISSIONS On-the-fly-calculation based on landuse, biomass Simpson/Guenther method: Simpson et al., 1995: Biogenic emissions in Europe (JGR 100, D11): ISOP, TERP, OVOC 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  10. MODEL EVALUATION • MO2ME: COMPARISON OF MODEL RESULTS TOMEASUREMENTS Question: Does the model fulfill the accuracy requirements given by the Daughter Directives (DD) of the FWD ? • MO2MO: COMPARISON OF MODEL RESULTS TO OTHER MODEL RESULTS Question: How is the performance of a model of medium complexity in comparison to other (more complex) models ? 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  11. REM/CALGRID IS INVOLVED IN 3 EUROPEAN MODEL INTERCOMPARISON STUDIES: • EUROTRAC-2 subproject GLOREAM (GLObal and REgional Atmospheric Modelling) long-term continental-scale aerosol modelling (Project Coordinator: H. Hass, Ford) • EUROTRAC-2 subproject TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) long-term continental-scale ozone-modelling (Project Coordinator: M. Roemer, TNO) • CAFE (Clean Air For Europe)CITY DELTA: long-term urban-scale ozone and PM modelling to explore changes in urban airquality (CITY)predicted by different atmospheric CTMs in response to changesin urban emissions(DELTA) 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  12. EXAMPLES OF RCG MODEL PERFORMANCE 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  13. How is the performance of a model of medium complexity in comparison to other models of equal or higher complexity ? • GLOREAM INTERCOMPARISON 1995 (6 models): Good for anorganic aerosol components SO4 (*), NO3, NH4 and aerosol precursors NO2, HNO3, SO2, NH3 • TOR INTERCOMPARISON 1997 (10 models) Good for NO2, O3 (**) (*) underestimation of high observed annual SO4 concentrations (**) underestimation of very high observed hourly O3 peak values 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  14. PM10 UNDERESTIMATED IN SUMMER • PM-Emissions: • No resuspension of road dust (estimates between 50% and 85% of total road traffic PM emissions) • No agricultural sources as ploughing and harvest activities (soil dust resuspension) • No biological sources • PM-Calculations: • Simplified treatment of all aerosol processes • No secondary organic aerosol formation • Underestimation of high observed SO4 concentrations 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  15. Urban scale modelling in Berlin- Brandenburg: Modelling area ca. 300x300 km2 Grid resolution ca. 2 x 2 km2 Meteorological and air quality boundary conditions: Large scale run 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  16. 10% coarse mode 54% primary 5% coarse mode 40% primary 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  17. EMISSIONS SCENARIO RUNS PMFOR BERLIN-BRANDENBURG, URBAN SCALE 3 RUNS MARCH 1999 • NO EMISSIONS: BERLIN • NO EMISSIONS: BERLIN+BRANDENBURG • NO EMISSIONS: BERLIN+BRANDENBURG+SACHSEN+SACHSEN-ANHALT 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  18. SUMMARY: SCENARIOS RESULTS FOR BERLIN • 1/3 of PM10 total is home-made • 2/3 of PM10 primary is home-made • Most of PM10 secondary is formed outside of the city 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

  19. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION 4th Meeting TFMM, Valencia April 9-11, 2003

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