1 / 26

Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities

Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Richard Knabb NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center 2007 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Overview of wind speed probabilities. Replaced strike probabilities in 2006 Describe chances of a weather event at any specific location

tdumas
Download Presentation

Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Operational Tropical CycloneWind Speed Probabilities Richard Knabb NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center 2007 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  2. Overview of wind speed probabilities • Replaced strike probabilities in 2006 • Describe chances of a weather event at any specific location • Convey chances of wind speeds of at least particular thresholds • 34 kt (tropical storm force) • 50 kt • 64 kt (hurricane force) • Account for combined uncertainty in official track, intensity, and size forecasts • Extend to 5 days • Include inland locations

  3. What questions do these products answer? • What are the chances this wind event will happen to me at all? • Do I need to prepare? • Cumulative period probabilities • NHC and CPHC graphics and text products • Northern hemispheric grids sent via WMO headers • National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) CONUS grids • When is the event most likely to start at my location? • How much time do I have left to prepare? • Individual period probabilities • NHC and CPHC text products

  4. What questions do these products answer? • What are the chances the event will be occurring at my location during a specific period? • (example) Will hurricane-force winds occur in my city on Saturday night? • Incrementalprobabilities • NDFD • Might go out via WMO headers by 2008 • Being incorporated into WFO products

  5. Probabilities Convey Uncertainties in Track, Intensity, and Size Forecasts Ernesto Advisory #11

  6. Magnitudes of Cumulative Probabilities Vary Greatly But Realistically Katrina Advisory #5

  7. Magnitudes of Cumulative Probabilities Vary Greatly But Realistically Katrina Advisory #18

  8. Changes to Graphics for 2007

  9. 2006 Operational 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  10. 2007 Final 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  11. 2007 Preliminary 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  12. Individual period probabilities help to understand timing uncertainty Chances of tropical storm force winds in Miami X

  13. Dealing With Small Probabilities

  14. A Challenge During Ernesto

  15. A Challenge During Ernesto

  16. A Challenge During Ernesto Hurricane Watch

  17. A Challenge During Ernesto

  18. What is available via the NDFD(National Digital Forecast Database)? • Cumulative and incremental probabilities • Updated four times daily (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) • 6 hourly 0-120 h • 34, 50, and 64 kt • CONUS domain only • 5 km grid spacing • Experimental during 2006, declared operational for 2007 hurricane season

  19. NDFD CONUS Domain

  20. Probabilities from NDFD Website www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusTropicalDay.php#tabs

  21. Probabilities in Hurrevac

  22. Graphics Widely Used in Emergency Management

  23. Going forward • Continue outreach and education • Compare probabilities with watches/warnings • Account for varying forecast confidence? • Enhance Hurrevac capabilities • Experimental storm surge probabilities

  24. For Additional Information… www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml

  25. For Additional Information… www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml

  26. For Additional Information… Richard.Knabb@noaa.gov

More Related