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Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma

Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma. Chris Greacen Palang Thai MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma 24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai. Outline. Intro to energy Energy history World energy situation Renewable energy Burma Default scenarios For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports

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Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma

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  1. Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma 24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai

  2. Outline • Intro to energy • Energy history • World energy situation • Renewable energy • Burma • Default scenarios • For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports • For electrification: dam & diesel generation, likely power imports from Thailand • Addressing the Thai side • Removing bias in load forecasting • Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field • Addressing the Burma side • Some clean community energy options

  3. Outline • Intro to world energy • Energy history • World energy situation • Burma energy situation • Energy exports to Thailand • Energy for domestic use • Renewable energy • For village-scale applications • For sale to main grid • Addressing the Burma side • Some clean community energy options

  4. History of Human Energy Use

  5. China, water-powered trip hammer, Han Dynasty CA 200 BC Watt steam engine ca. 1775 Benz automobile ca. 1886 Edison Pearl Street Station - first electric distribution system, 1882 Oil well, Pennsylvania, 1861

  6. The rise of global dependence on fossil fuels World primary energy supply, 1850-2000 Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass Coal drove growth 1850-1950; oil & gas drove it (2x faster) 1950-2000

  7. In the USA…

  8. Current world energy system - the positive • Cheap • Convenient • Mature technologies

  9. Current world energy system - the negative • oil dependence • price volatility, developing country debt, resource conflict • carbon emissions • climate change • growth in consumption • Unequal distribution • of consumption and impacts

  10. Current Energy System in a Nutshell • Those “upwind, upstream, and uptime” enjoy convenient services at artificially low prices. • Those “downwind, downstream, and downtime” face the consequences

  11. Where we’re at • progress is slow toward alternatives • fossil fuels 90% in 1980, 86% in 2005 • change is difficult to achieve • consumption habits, prices don’t reflect externalities, vested interests • time is short for transforming the system • already happening: climate change, oil wars, energy poverty, debt crises Masters & Randolph, 2008

  12. No Technological “Silver Bullet” • oil and gas: not enough resources • coal: not enough atmosphere • biomass: not enough land • hydropower & wind: not enough sites • nuclear fission: too unforgiving • nuclear fusion: too difficult • Solar : too expensive • hydrogen: not a “source”: needs energy to produce it • end-use efficiency: needs end-users who are paying attention From John P. Holdren, “The Energy Innovation Imperative,” 2006

  13. Elements of a solution • Sustainable energy technologies • Change markets • Change consumption behavior • Change policies • Change institutions

  14. Sustainable energy technologies • Renewable Energy: making use of flows of energy that are naturally replaced (wind, sun, biomass)

  15. Problems for renewables • Cost • Technical maturity • Technical fit • Geographic mismatch • Limits to renewability

  16. World Wind Energy Growth Source: World Wind Energy Association

  17. World Biofuel Growth

  18. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1970-2004 SOURCE: AER 2006

  19. Energy situation in Burma (?) • Energy shortages • blackouts, fuel rationing • High energy costs • High human suffering from impacts of large energy projects • Large hydro • Gas • Unequal distribution of energy, of impacts

  20. Big hydro – for export to Thailand & domestic use • Used to make: • 6% of Thailand’s electricity, • 60% of Burma’s electricity (most dams are in ethnic minority areas) • Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand. • Limited sites left in Thailand • Strong environmental opposition… • “Build in Burma instead!!!” • Environmental issues • Inundation • Fish killed • Global warming • Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime • Can be cheap • If reasonably close to load centers

  21. Tasang 7,000 MW Yawatit 600 MW Upper Salween 4,000 MW Lower Salween 500 MW Hut Gyi 1,200 MW Tanaosri 720 MW Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand

  22. Natural gas • Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) • 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes from Burma • 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay for Burmese gas • Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government • Accounts for fully half of Burma’s exports in 2006 • US$2.16 billion to junta from Thailand. • Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas, Nippon Oil, etc. Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm

  23. Rural electrification - Burma • In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s 58.82 million population lived without electricity. • Goal: electrification rates to 60% by 2020.

  24. Diesel

  25. Sell electricity to Thailand cheap,buy back expensive 1 baht/kWh 8 baht/kWh 2 baht/kWh

  26. Can we imagine something different?

  27. Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it Demand Side Management (saving electricity) 1.5 Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! Source: The World Bank (1993)

  28. The Arun-3 story • Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal • Sell electricity to India, rural electrification • Nepalese NGOs and small business:“Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy” • World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled • 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of: • over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3 • at ½ the cost • In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

  29. Renewable energy fuels and uses

  30. 1. Village and household scale2. National scale (connecting to national grid)

  31. Biodiesel

  32. Efficient Charcoal

  33. Micro-hydroelectricity Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

  34. Hydraulic ram pump www.agr.gc.ca

  35. Hydraulic ram pump

  36. Community micro-hydro • Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai • 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW • Community cooperative • Sells electricity to the national grid

  37. Solar cooking

  38. replace LED lighting and 0.5-5W solar panels, coupled with microfinance energy loans, can end kerosene lighting Barefoot Power is a social enterprise delivering such solutions

  39. Solar home systems • 25,000 baht per household system • 120 watts • Electricity for 2 lights + TV

  40. Thai solar home systems 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge

  41. Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings • 7 trainings (2003-2007) • >90 medics trained • 35 clinics

  42. Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps • 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator • Each powers 12 computers

  43. Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV • Project size: 1 MW • Uses self-manufactured a-Si

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