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International passenger railway connections in the BSR: situation and development possibilities. Jūrmala, 4.9.2008 Artūrs Caune. Cities PopulationEconomy Railways. Population decrease except Scandinavia and Finland
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International passenger railway connections in the BSR: situation and development possibilities Jūrmala, 4.9.2008 Artūrs Caune
Population decrease except Scandinavia and Finland High GDP per capita and low growth rates vs. Low GDP per capita and high growth Total length of railway lines decreases, significant decrease in Poland, Germany, Sweden Increase in passenger flows, except for Latvia, Lithuania, Germany and Poland General trends
Cities above 25000: population decrease by 2,9% In important regional centres and MEGAs: decrease even more significant: -6,1% and -5,7 respectively International railway service available for 15...40% of the population in the BSR living in cities above 25000 General trends - 2
1435mm: shorter routes / higher speeds 1520/1524mm: average route length 680km, average speeds 4,5% below average Combined gauge routes: 1412km, speeds 8,5% below average Average service speed in route: ~ 60km/h Highest service speeds: Berlin-Warszawa: Copenhagen-Stockholm, Helsinki-Moscow, Malmo-Copenhagen, Copenhagen-Goeteborg Berlin-Hamburg: 170km/h Railway infrastructure and service
Berlin-Kaliningrad Gdansk/Gdyna-Kaliningrad Warszawa – St.Petersburg Tallinn-St.Petersburg SPEEDS BY 30-40 km/h If compared by istance on air – even considerably slower speeds! Slow routes
Even in routes between 200 and 400 km travelling by plane is 2 times faster In routes above 600 km travelling by plane is from 4,3 to 5,7 times faster... Routes: strings or bananas or even snake? Distance on air between end stations of the route – 1,5...2,2 times shorter than the route Competion with air traffic?
Challenges or realistic tasks? • Link the city-regions on both sides of the border by fast train (sucess story Copenhagen – Malmo): Why not Helsinki and Tallinn; Berlin – Szczecin? • Link MEGAs with 1435mm gauge:Helsinki, Turku, St.Petersburg, Tallin, Riga, Vilnius, Minsk
Challenges or realistic tasks? • Improve service speeds up to 100 km/h in shorter routes up to 400km • Improve service speeds in longer routes up to 150 km/h (high – speed railways) • How? Strings not snakes; upgrade from speeds of XIX century to the ones of XXI century