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Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland

ETSAP Workshop, Florenz, 22 - 26. November 2004. Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland. Thorsten F. Schulz Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, Alexander Wokaun General Energy Research Department, Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute.

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Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland

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  1. ETSAP Workshop, Florenz, 22 - 26. November 2004 Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland Thorsten F. Schulz Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, Alexander Wokaun General Energy Research Department, Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute

  2. Steps towards a 2000 W SocietyOutline

  3. Factor 2.5 Factor 1.6 Primary Energy Consumption in Watt / Person Factor 2 Factor 6 Fossil: Global Aim Vision of the 2000 Watt SocietySource: M. Koschenz, A. Pfeiffer, EMPA, September 2004 Other Renewable Energies Hydropower Nuclear Energy Carriers Fossil Energy Carriers Western Europe, Scenario C1 [Nakicenovic, Grübler, McDonald, 1998] Scenario IV, Fossil Energy [Eckerie, 1997] Fossil Primary Energy Consumption without Net Imports of Goods Total Primary Energy, incl. Net Imports of Goods CO2 – Law: 42.3Mio t CO2 ( 5.6 t CO2/Person) Aim: Total Primary Energy / (Capita &Time) = 2000 W “ 2000 Watt Fossil Society“

  4. Population and GDP development Source: BFS(2001), Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2000-2060 SECO (2004), Langfristige Szenarien für das GDP, not published

  5. Assumption Regarding Electricity

  6. Useful Energy Demand 2000 - 2050

  7. Primary Energy per Capita Development 2000 – 2050 Aim: Reduction of Fossil Energy by Half

  8. Effect on the Primary Energy Use

  9. Final Energy Use – Residential Heating

  10. Final Energy Use – Motorcar Sector Baseline Scenario 160 140 120 100 [ PJ ] Diesel 80 Gasoline 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

  11. Final Energy Use – Motorcar SectorNew Technologies 140 120 Gasoline + Diesel (conv.) Gasoline (advanced) 100 Gasoline Hybrid 80 [ PJ ] Natural Gas Natural Gas Hybrid 60 Methanol Fuel Cell 40 Hydrogen Fuel Cell 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

  12. Primary Energy Use - Share of Biomass Technologies 100 80 [ PJ ] 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Pellet Combustion Conv. Heating System CHP (>2MWel) Biogas SFH Methanation Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis Hydrogen from Biomass Potential

  13. CO2- Emissions: Baseline Scenario

  14. CO2-Emissions: 2000 Watt Society Factor 2

  15. CO2- Emissions in the Transport Sector

  16. Deadweight Loss P Eq1: Baseline Equilibrium Eq2: 2 kW per Capita Constraint Partial Equilibrium with Elastic Demands Eq3: Baseline Demand – Demand Reduction S´ S S Eq2 Eq1 Eq3 D D Q

  17. Comparison to the GDP

  18. Concluding Remarks Cutting the fossil primary energy by half until 2050 seems to be possible from a technical and economical perspective • Already the contemplated aim results in significant structural changes in the energy system • building configuration, heating systems • innovative Vehicle-Powertrain • more efficient industrial processes • increased use of solid biomass • The impact on the GDP would be significant but affordable; the share of the energy system cost on the GDP would drop.

  19. The PSI-Energy Economics Group acknowledges the financial support of the NCCR-Project and the work of Maryse Labriet • Work has been directed by Prof. Alexander Wokaun and was first • presented to the SATW Annual Congress: “Anforderungen an ein • Nachhaltiges Energiesystem” Lausanne, CH; September, 2004 • Calculations were done by Thorsten Schulz with the support of • Socrates Kypreos and Leonardo Barreto Acknowledgments

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