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BLUElink Update Andreas Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Hobart, Australia

BLUElink Update Andreas Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Hobart, Australia N. R. Smith BMRC Melbourne, Australia. Project “BLUElink”. A partnership between: CSIRO Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Royal Australian Navy (RAN). Australia!. (Nature cover).

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BLUElink Update Andreas Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Hobart, Australia

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  1. BLUElink Update Andreas Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Hobart, Australia N. R. Smith BMRC Melbourne, Australia

  2. Project “BLUElink” • A partnership between: • CSIRO • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) • Royal Australian Navy (RAN)

  3. Australia! (Nature cover)

  4. High-level objectives of BLUElink • To develop an ocean forecasting capability in the Bureau of Meteorology • To enable the RAN to forecast local ocean and atmospheric conditions

  5. Key elements • “Real-time” data availability (“nowcasts”) • Archived ocean hindcasts, based on global modelling • Ocean forecasts, based on global model • Automated model nesting

  6. Ocean Nowcasting A daily-updated nowcast of the 3-d temperature, salinity and current fields for the Asian-Australian region based on in situ (Argo and XBT) and satellite (altimeter, SST) data SSH Anomaly & Geostrophic Velocity SST & Geostrophic Velocity SST Anomaly & Geostrophic Velocity

  7. The Global Model Ocean Forecasting Australia Model Based on MOM4 Provides an archive (1992 on) and operational 3-10 day forecasts See http://www.marine.csiro.au/bluelink/exproducts/index.htm

  8. Model Summary

  9. BODAS:An Ensemble-based Optimal Interpolation System

  10. Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy: January Altimetry Model

  11. % EKE of Total Kinetic Energy January July

  12. Surface Transports 0-100m& Mean Kinetic Energy: January July Integrated Transports in 1º x 1º bins 10 Sv

  13. Makassar Strait Moorings Intraseasonal The great 97/98 El Niño Kelvin Courtesy A.L. Gordon Courtesy A.L. Gordon

  14. Top-Bottom Volume Transports (1992-2001)

  15. Makassar Strait: Temperature Section 1997/1998 Observations Reanalysis (Ffield et al., 2000)

  16. XBT Section PX34: Geostrophic (0-2000db)& Ekman Transports Reanalysis Observations Reanalysis (weekly ave.) TOTAL Transport Reanalysis (3-monthly filtered)

  17. Limited Area Modelling – tropical cyclones Improved tropical cyclone forecasts based on coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modelling

  18. ROAMRelocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model • 3-10 day model prediction of ocean and atmospheric structure • High resolution (~2 km), limited area (~100x100 km2) • Robust - to be run by non-experts in the Navy • Controlled from a graphical interface • Automatically nested inside operational global forecasts • Output fed to sonar and radar models

  19. ROAMRelocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model Domain selection via a graphical interface

  20. Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model (ROAM): GUI

  21. ROAMing – testing for robustness Next slide Examples of test domains

  22. ROAMing – testing for accuracy ROAM Optimised model Comparison of automated vs optimised model: * SS height, * currents during TC Bobby (atmos pressure contours in white, coloured dots are data locations)

  23. ROAM: testing for accuracy data model Temperature 40 m below surface 90 m below surface (water depth 300 m) TC Bobby Feb 1995

  24. Components of the Ocean Model Analysis and Prediction System(OceanMAPS)

  25. Global System: OceanMAPS Operational Implementation • Phase 1: Infrastructure Jun05-Dec05 • Analysis cycle (Jun-Sep) • IT Software, Resource plan (Jun-Sep) • Implementation workshop (Sep/Oct) • Implementation Plan (Oct) • Forecast cycle (Oct-Dec) • Phase 2: Tuning Jan06-Jun06 • Robust configuration • Hindcast trials • QC real-time observations • Analysis and Forecast GASP • SX6 operation configuration • Scheduling • Extended configuration • Phase 3: Monitoring Jun06-Dec06 • Static configuration • Transition to operational infrastructure • Routine diagnostics • Validation/skill assessment • Documentation • Transition to NMOC

  26. Summary: BLUElink • Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 13 • years. Public access now available for registered users: • http://www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/ • Global Operational Outputs and Regional (shelf-scale) • Relocatable Nested System (all available by 2006/07): • 7-28 days forecasts (global, BoM), • 3+ days (regional, RAN), • Prognostic variables: SSH; 3-D ocean temperature, salinity and currents

  27. BLUElink II (2006-2010): • Higher resolution models and improved physics: • global  coastal littoral zone • river discharge, tidal focing • Improved global analysis and prediction system (towards • Ensemble Kalman Filter): • full SST assimilation • improved anomalies, error statistics • Downscaling: relocatable, fully coupled regional ocean- • atmosphere model with limited DA capability (1/8)º min (1/16)º

  28. Sustainability of Satellites ? QuikSCAT Microwave SST Altimetry Ocean color

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