Computer Science – Facts and Fantasies

1. Computer Science – Facts and Fantasies Ed Lazowska Bill & Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science & Engineering University of Washington July 2013

2. Today • UW Computer Science & Engineering • Education for the 21st century • Why computer science? • Why a research-intensive university? • What your students will experience in UW Computer Science & Engineering • Be a Mythbuster

3. UW Computer Science & Engineering • Ranked among the top 10 programs in the nation (of >200) • MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, Carnegie Mellon, Cornell, Illinois, Washington, Princeton, Texas, Georgia Tech, Caltech, Wisconsin, Michigan, UCLA, UCSD … • Two undergraduate programs • Computer Science (College of Arts & Sciences) • Computer Engineering (College of Engineering) • > 300 degrees per year • ~200 Bachelors (growing to ~240) • ~85 Masters • ~25 Ph.D.

4. Admission • “Regular Admission” for UW students who have fulfilled a set of prerequisites (math, physical sciences, computer science, etc.) • Offered twice each year – for autumn and spring quarters • ~15% of majors • “Accelerated Admission” for students who do extremely well in our introductory courses • ~15% of majors • “Direct Admission” for top high school students • Offered in the spring, for autumn quarter, coordinated with the UW Admissions Office and the UW Honors Program

5. Extraordinary students • Fully 1/3 of the UW class medalists since 2000 have been CSE majors • Our “fair share” would be 2% • A deep commitment to providing a top-tier undergraduate education • Winner of 5 UW Distinguished Teaching Awards • Winner of the inaugural UW Brotman Award for Instructional Excellence • In a typical quarter, CSE has 2/3’s of the top-performing instructors in the 10-department UW College of Engineering, according to student course evaluations • 9 of the top 10 instructors in the most recent quarter

6. We produce students who can design and build stuff • Emphasis on teamwork and design • 80% of undergraduates do at least one internship • 50% of undergraduates participate in faculty-guided research • #1 school in the nation in students recognized in the past 10 years in the Computing Research Association “Outstanding Undergraduate Researchers Award” competition • A top-5 supplier of students to Amazon.com, Google, and Microsoft (along with MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, and Carnegie Mellon) • The predominate supplier to many leading smaller firms headquartered here

8. Tech companies that can be choosy, choose CSE

9. Message #1 • There are various reasons to go out of state for college • Getting the best computer science or computer engineering education in the nation is not one of them

10. Education for the 21st century • Once upon a time, the “content” of the goods we produced was largely physical

11. Then we transitioned to goods whose “content” was a balance of physical and intellectual

12. In the “innovation economy,” the content of goods is almost entirely intellectual rather than physical

13. What kind of education is needed to produce goods whose content is almost entirely intellectual rather than physical?

14. STEM Education in Washington:The Facts of the Matter Ed Lazowska Bill & Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science & Engineering University of Washington With huge thanks to Kristin Osborne Director of Policy & Communications Technology Alliance http://lazowska.cs.washington.edu/STEM.pdf

15. “Innovation is in our nature” This is true of our economy and our population.

16. By any measure, Washington is a leader in America’s innovation economy. 2010 Kauffman Foundation New Economy Index:* 1. Massachusetts 2. Washington 3. Maryland 4. New Jersey 5. Connecticut 7. California 8. Virginia 9. Colorado 10. New York 12. Utah * Index #6 Delaware and #11 New Hampshire intentionally omitted.

17. Growth in Private Sector Technology Employment in Washington State, 1974-2009 All Other Tech Industries Software & Computer Services Aerospace Employment in our private sector technology industries has quadrupled since 1974. Source: Technology Alliance: The Economic Impact of Technology-based Industries in Washington State, 2010

18. An economy driven by a highly educated, innovative workforce. 1 2 2 5 Washington’s National Rankings Human Capital % of payroll in high tech NAICS codes Intensity of Engineers Intensity of Computer specialists Intensity of S&E workforce Sources: National Science Foundation: Science & Engineering Indicators, 2010; Milken Institute: State Technology and Science Index: Enduring Lessons for the Intangible Economy, 2011

19. So, who are these people? It turns out that they are not our own children!

20. Washington is the 2nd largest importer of degrees among tech states (and 1st, by far, as a proportion of population). Net Migration: 22-39 Year Olds, Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2007) 57,386 WA 24,543 Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems/U.S. Census Bureau

21. We rank very low in engineering degree production relative to engineering occupations. In-state Engineering Degree Production Per 1,000 Engineering Occupations (2005) 103.6 Nation 29.8 WA Source: NCHEMS/U.S. Census Bureau

22. It’s the same story in computer science. In-state Computer Science Degree Production per 1,000 Computer Science Occupations (2005) 55.7 Nation 21.0 WA Source: NCHEMS/U.S. Census Bureau

23. Is this inevitable, given the vibrancy of our technology sector? Or do we have pipeline and/or capacity issues?

24. A mismatch between economic opportunity and our educational output. 1 2 2 5 31 35 46 Intensity of Engineers % of payroll in high tech NAICS codes Intensity of S&E workforce Intensity of Computer specialists Total bachelor’s production S&E graduate program participation NS&E bachelor’s production Sources: ITIF/Kauffman Foundation: The 2010 State New Economy Index; National Science Foundation: Science & Engineering Indicators 2010; NCHEMS/Postsecondary Opportunity (all indexed to age-range population)

25. We lag in S&E degree production not only as a function of workforce, but also as a function of population. Natural Science & Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees Per 1,000 18-24 Year Olds 11.5 Nation WA 7.7 Source: NSF, Science & Engineering Indicators 2010 Note: NS&E degrees include physical, computer, agricultural, biological, earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciences; mathematics; and engineering.

26. Same for total bachelor’s degree production. Bachelor’s Degrees Per 1,000 18-24 Year Olds 72.5 Nation WA 47.8 Source: NSF, Science & Engineering Indicators 2010

27. We rank last among tech states in S&E graduate program participation. Science & Engineering Graduate Students Per 1,000 Population 25-34 Years of Age (2007) 28.7 Nation WA 7.1 Source: NSF, Science & Engineering Indicators 2010 Note: S&E includes physical, computer, agricultural, biological, earth, atmospheric, ocean, and social sciences; psychology; mathematics; and engineering.

28. There are pipeline issues from secondary to postsecondary To deal with the gathering storm, we need to stop the leaks.

29. Our kids’ futures are leaking! 100 students enter 9th grade graduates don’t enroll directly in college students don’t graduate high school on time obtain a degree within 150% time 10 31 34 7 don’t return sophomore year don’t graduate within 150% time 18 Source: NCHEMS Note: Data for high school graduation doesn’t account for transfers to private high schools and out-of-state. The calculation for college graduation doesn’t account for transfers across institutions.

30. Overall, our pipeline is the leakiest among the tech states. Student Pipeline: Transition & Completion Rates, 9th Grade to College (2008) 30.2 Nation WA 18.1 Source: NCHEMS/Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity

31. We are last among tech states in the proportion of high school graduates who move directly to college. College-going Rates of Recent High School Graduates (2008) 74.6 Nation WA 50.7 Source: NCHEMS/Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity

32. Of the ones who do move directly to college, too many are unprepared for college-level work. Enrolled in or completed math required for degree A Math Problem: 23% 48% Only 23% of 2008 high school graduates entering our 2-year colleges enrolled in college-level math or already had the math required for their degree. Enrolled in pre-college (remedial) math 29% Not enrolled in any math and no record of having completed math required for degree Source: Washington State Board for Community & Technical Colleges: Role of Pre-College (Developmental and Remedial) Education for Recent High School Graduates Attending Washington Community and Technical Colleges, 2009

33. Reducing the leaks in the pipeline is critical for our citizens, our economy, and our society. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

34. Behind the numbers… A human tragedy is unfolding in our state.

35. The mismatch between the skills required for available jobs and the skills people have is growing. 1 5 % Change in Skills Mismatch Index by State (2007-2010) 1st quartile (least change) 2nd quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile (greatest change) Source: Estavao, Marcello and Evridiki Tsounta, “Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?” International Monetary Fund, 2011/Haver Analytics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, author’s calculations

36. In the last 3 years, Washington’s skills mismatch grew more than that of all but one other state. 1 % Change in Skills Mismatch Index by State (2007-2010) 5 2.5% 41.9% WA Source: Marcello and Tsounta, courtesy of Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times.

37. The people who held the jobs we’re losing aren’t going to get the jobs we’re creating. 57% of the job openings among the top 10 occupations are in computing. Source: Used with permission from the Seattle Times.

38. Yes, it’s a pipeline issue, but it’s also a capacity issue! In the race for talent, ideas and economic opportunity…all STEM is important, but all STEM is not created equal!

39. Nationally, 85% of all STEM jobs are projected to be in computer science and other fields of engineering. Science & Technology Job Growth (2010-2020) 70% 85% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 60%

40. Nationally, within STEM there is a significant mismatch between jobs and degrees. Annualized Job Openings vs. Annual Degrees Granted (2008-2018) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Science Foundation

41. In Washington, computer science, followed by other fields of engineering, has the largest gap between supply and demand. Source: Washington State HECB, SBCTC, and WTECB: A Skilled and Educated Workforce, 2011 Update. Analysis of Employment Security Department and IPEDS data. 41

42. Let’s put the vowel back in STEM!

43. Message #2 • The vanguard of our economy is the production of goods whose content is almost entirely intellectual • It takes a Bachelors+ education to produce these goods • If you steer a capable student towards a 2-year program as his or her end-goal, you are doing that student a disservice • Not every student needs college prep. But every student needs life prep. Increasingly, math and science and “Computational Thinking” are life prep. • “Honors, AP, and IB English, math, and science”

44. Why Computer Science? • It’s creative, it’schallenging, it’sexciting • It’sincreasingly fundamental to many other fields • And thus it’s great preparation for these fields • There are tons of jobs • Although this is not a reason to choose a major!

45. http://www.cs.washington.edu/WhyCSE/ • Power to Change the World • People enter computer science for all sorts of aspirational reasons • Pathways in Computer Science • A computer science education is the gateway to all sorts of careers in addition to the software industry • A day in the life • The software industry is pretty cool

47. The Impact “From smartphones to eBook readers to game consoles to personal computers; from corporate datacenters to cloud services to scientific supercomputers; from digital photography and photo editing, to MP3 music players, to streaming media, to GPS navigation; from robot vacuum cleaners in the home, to adaptive cruise control in cars and the real-time control systems in hybrid vehicles, to robot vehicles on and above the battlefield; from the Internet and the World Wide Web to email, search engines, eCommerce, and social networks; from medical imaging, to computer-assisted surgery, to the large-scale data analysis that is enabling evidence-based healthcare and the new biology; from spreadsheets and word processing to revolutions in inventory control, supply chain, and logistics; from the automatic bar-coding of hand-addressed first class mail, to remarkably effective natural language translation, to rapidly improving speech recognition – our world today relies to an astonishing degree on systems, tools, and services that belong to a vast and still growing domain known as Networking and Information Technology (NIT).”

48. “As a field of inquiry, NIT has a rich intellectual agenda – as rich as that of any other field of science or engineering.” “In addition, NIT is arguably unique among all fields of science and engineering in the breadth of its impact.” “The development and application of NIT-related systems, services, tools and methodologies have boosted U.S. labor productivity more than any other set of forces in recent decades. Advances in NIT, deployed pervasively throughout the U.S. economy, have helped U.S. workers become the world’s most productive and have enabled the U.S. to remain one of the world’s most competitive economies.”

49. The Future Role “Recent technological and societal trends place the further advancement and application of NIT squarely at the center of our Nation’s ability to achieve essentially all of our priorities and to address essentially all of our challenges: • Advances in NIT are a key driver of economic competitiveness. They create new markets and increase productivity. • Advances in NIT are crucial to achieving our major national and global priorities in energy and transportation, education and life-long learning, healthcare, and national and homeland security. NIT will be an indispensable element in buildings that manage their own energy usage; attention-gripping, personalized methods that reinforce classroom lessons; continuous unobtrusive assistance for people with physical and mental disabilities; and strong resilience to cyber warfare.

50. • Advances in NIT accelerate the pace of discovery in nearly all other fields. The latest NIT tools are helping scientists and engineers to illuminate the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, elucidate the nature of combustion, and predict the size of the ozone hole, to cite just a few examples. • Advances in NIT are essential to achieving the goals of open government. Those advances will allow better access to government records, better and more accessible government services, and the ability both to learn from and communicate with the American public more effectively.”