Sustainable, CO 2 -neutral Source of Energy

1. Sustainable, CO2-neutral Source of Energy

2. http://www.energycommission.org/

3. In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by ~1° C 100 years is nothing by geological time scales!

4. Temperature over the last 420,000 years Source: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5. Forget about Global warming! Shouldn’t we be worried about a new ice age?

6. Previous ice ages are thought to be caused by changes in the orbit and inclination of the Earth. …but there is something new happening!

8. The great American philosopher of the 20th century We continue to refine the predictions of Global Warming … “Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”

9. Climate change due to natural causes and human generated greenhouse gases Can we predict the past? Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)

10. CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level Continue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced Sea-level rise due to ice melting: several millennia Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia CO2 emissions peak 0 to 100 years Temperature stabilization: a few centuries CO2 stabilization: 100 to 300 years CO2 emissions Today 1,000 years 100 years

11. The possibility / likelihood of global warming is disturbing … Chu … but there may be a bigger problem!

12. Chu Consumption of Energy Increased by 85% Between 1970 and 1999 By 2020, Consumption will Triple

13. World Energy Consumption by Region: 1970-2020 Chu

14. Gas Hydro Renewable Global Energy Consumption, 1998 How long will our fossil fuels last? Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads) Courtesy Nate Lewis

15. M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970. Production in the Lower 48 StatesPeak discovery: 1930Peak production: 1972 Discoveries, Gb/a Production, Gb/a Chu

16. 2010 World production of oil and gas is predicted to peak within 10 - 40 years

17. Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time(a factor of ~2) but the fundamental problem remains

18. Today: Production Cost of Electricity (in the U.S. in 2002) 25-50 ¢ Cost, ¢/kW-hr 6-7 ¢ 5-7 ¢ 6-8 ¢ 2.3-5.0 ¢ 1-4 ¢ Courtesy Nate Lewis

19. Energy Costs $0.05/kW-hr Europe Brazil www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea Courtesy Nate Lewis

20. Nuclear Fission Potential Sources of Energy when Fossil Fuels Run Out Nuclear Fusion Magnetic Plasma Confinement, Inertial Fusion Waste & Nuclear Proliferation 10 TW = 10,000 new 1 GW reactors: i.e., a new reactor every other day for the next 50 years

21. Solar Energy We do not know how to store electrical energy on a massive scale

22. Wind Power Generation

23. Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO2, water and nutrients into chemical energy

24. Solar to Chemical Energy CO H O 2 2 2 e e Sugar sc M sc M H O 2 H O 2 O 2 Semiconductor/liquid junctions Photovoltaic andelectricity to chemical Photosynthesis

25. Energy gained in corn ethanol production

26. Total CO2 emissions

27. From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options (NCEP) “Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol has potential to achieve near-zero net carbon emissions. Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks requires very low energy inputs and, if sustainably managed, the carbon released during fuel combustion is reabsorbed by the growth of new feedstocks.”

28. ~ 450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US

29. Biomass resources estimate • Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990: 2.45x1013 m2 • Cultivated Land, 1990: 0.897 x1013 m2 • Additional Land needed to support 9 billion people: 0.416x1013 m2 • Remaining land available for biomass energy: 1.28x1013 m2 Courtesy Nate Lewis

30. Photosynthesis:the creation of chemical energy from CO2, sunlight, water and nutrients

31. Engineering microbes to produce drugs • Malaria is caused by a single-cell protozoan • Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito • Destroys red blood cells • 1.5-2.7 million people die of malaria every year • 90% of the victims are children • 40% of the world’s population is at risk

32. Artemisinin-based drugs • The current cost for an artemisinin-based drug is approximately $2.25. • Artemisinin generally adds $1.00-1.50 to the cost for drugs • Most developing countries spend less than $4/person/year on health care • As many as 10-12 treatments are needed for each person annually • World Health Organization estimates that 700 tons will be needed annually

33. Identify the biosynthesis pathways in A. annua Synthetic Biology:Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce methane from sunlight, CO2, water and sustainable sources of nutrients?

34. Nanoscience Hybrid Devices Integration of many disciplines will be needed Computing Sciences Physics,Chemistry New ideas Life Sciences Materials Science Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy

35. A diversified portfolio of investments is needed A solution may lie at the interface of biology andthe physical sciences at the nano-scale

36. National Concerns which is intimately tied to energy security 1) National security 2) Economic prosperity 3) The environment Sustainable, CO2 neutral energy

37. Science Technology • The pursuit of technological goals has led to some of the most innovative science. • Science done with new technology has the best chance of discovery.

38. Lawrence Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley Who will keep the lights on after we run out of fossil fuel?