Ulysses and the Sirens: Political and Technical Rationality in Latin America Javier Santiso

1. Ulysses and the Sirens: Political and Technical Rationality in Latin America Javier Santiso Chief Economist for Latin America and Emerging Markets Economic Research Department BBVA Washington, DC, March 2005 Inter-American Development Bank March 2005

2. A POLICY-ORIENTATED RESEARCH PROJECT • Research Project: • There are two main purposes to this study: • 1. To contribute to the evaluation of the number of institutions that promote the application of knowledge to economic policies; • 2. To show, parting from study cases, how technical and political rationality are articulated. • Policy-issues: • Technopols in Emerging Democracies: Strengthening the Economic and Technical Capacity of Parliaments. • Brain-Gain for Emerging Democracies: Research Fellows based in Latin American Think-Tanks. March 2005

3. TECHNOPOLS AS INSTITUTIONAL MASTS “In dealing with the multiple and complex problems of development, we have learnt that we must be deaf, like Ulysses, to the seductive chant of the unique paradigm”. Albert Hirschman March 2005

4. 1. Technopols in Latin America: Cognitive Mapping of Institutional Masts • - Private Actors: International vs National • - Public Actors: Government, Agencies and Congresses • - Think-Tanks and Universities • - International Organizations • 2. The Interactions Between Experts and Politics in Emerging Democracies. • - Enter the Matrix: The case of Perú • - The Reform of Pension Funds: Institutions and Processes. • - Fiscal Reform: Institutions and Processes. March 2005

5. A COGNITIVE MAPPING OF LATIN AMERICAN TECHNOPOLS March 2005

6. TECHNOPOLS IN EMERGING DEMOCRACIES • 1. What is the cognitive map in Latin America for applied knowledge in economic policies? • There are no in-depth studies that measure the institutional density of production centers and the diffusion of applied knowledge in economic policies. • These centers operate as technopols, i.e. institutions that articulate proposals of acceptable economic policies which are both adoptable by and adaptable to their respective democracies. • A strong institutional presence of this kind does not guarantee an adequate articulation between technical and political rationality. Some examples exist where a high cognitive institutional presence has coincided with an overflow of economic policies due to political (i) rationality (or formulated in weberian terms an overflow of the ethics of conviction). March 2005

7. TECHNOPOLS AS TRESPASSERS • The presence of these institutions contributes to the democratic governance promoting higher deliberative quality in public space. • This is a necessary condition (although not sufficient) for an adequate articulation between technical rationality and political rationality. • If the key institutions for development are those that promote governance accountability and provide information over government actions authorizing citizens to sanction behavior that limits the capturing of rent (Benhabib and Przeworski, 2004), technopols carry out a central role. • The technopols operate in this sense as traders or, to use Hirschman terminology, trespassers of knowledge between technical rationality and the political rationality. • This aspect is important. Many of the reformist impulses that are merely adopted from other national or regional contexts without being adapted, fail because of the lack of the trespassing process. Hence the Przeworski description, “the cemetery of institutional reforms must be enormous”. March 2005

8. MAPPING TECHNOPOLS • The first aim of this study will be to establish the cognitive map in applied knowledge in economic policies in the different countries of the region. • The technopols can be national or foreign; public or private. For this mapping we will take into account institutions of knowledge such as analysis units of international organizations or government agencies, private consultants or research departments of banks; academic research centers. • The study will have to incorporate evidence from several countries. Examples will be taken from the largest possible number of countries, considering in the first place the following eight: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. • The methodology used in this part will be surveys carried out by questionnaires and/or interviews. For each type of technopols an adapted questionnaire will be used. March 2005

9. MAPPING TECHNOPOLS • The following points of analysis are contemplated in this sense: • What is the inherent capacity of cognitive institutions ? • How many think-tanks and/or university centers contribute to the formulation of policy debate? What are their human and financial resources. • What is the contribution of the consultants and the research departments to this formulation? Here we particularly think of the private banks analysis units and the private consultants. • What is the contribution of public entities (Central Bank, Ministry of Economy and or Planning; public agencies etc.) ? • What is the inherent technical capacity in the Legislative institutions in terms of economic policies ? • What is the role of international institutions (BID, CAF, WB, CEPAL, etc.) in the process of designing economic policies? March 2005

10. TYPES OF TECHNOPOLS Banks Government Agencies IO Policies Academics Think-Tanks March 2005

11. BANKS: LATINFINANCE RESEARCH OLYMPICS • Research Olympics 2004 • The Annual ranking of economists and analysts of the sell-side industry. Every year, Latin Finance asks institutional investors, the principal consumers of Wall Street research, to rank the best analysts and economists covering the region. • A tougher regulatory environment and cost cutting at big Wall Street banks have taken their toll. These banks are under tighter scrutiny from regulators and their internal compliance departments to avoid even the suspicion that researchers' findings are affected by the battle for investment banking mandates. • The crackdown has curtailed analysts' direct access to management of the firms they cover and their ability to talk to the media. The result is less insight coverage and less media exposure. March 2005

12. BANKS: LATINFINANCE RESEARCH OLYMPICS • LatinFinance sent questionnaires to top portfolio managers and institutional investors in Latin American debt and equity instruments. • A total of 63 responses were received from investors with a combined $33 billion under management. • Votes were weighted in proportion to the assets invested by each firm in Latin America. March 2005

13. BANKS AS TECHNOPOLS: RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS March 2005

14. BANKS AS TECHNOPOLS: RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS March 2005

15. BANKS AS TECHNOPOLS: RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS March 2005

16. BANKS: WALL STREET IS WATCHING YOU … BUT NOT EVERYBODY March 2005

17. BANKS AS TECHNOPOLS: RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS March 2005

18. PUBLIC ACTORS: GOVERNMENT AND NATIONAL TECHNOPOLS • The research departments of government institutions (Central Bank, Ministry of Economy and all types of public national organisms) that process, produce and spread expert knowledge on economic policies • Samples will also have to include government agencies like Superintendence of AFP in Chile, the BNDES or IPEA in Brazil, DANE in Colombia, etc. March 2005

19. CONGRESS AS TECHNOPOLS: A POLICY ISSUE IN LATIN AMERICA March 2005

20. CONGRESS AS TECHNOPOLS: A POLICY ISSUE IN LATIN AMERICA March 2005

21. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AS TECHNOPOLS • Technopols on Latin America: Multilaterals • Argentina: INTAL-IADB http://www.iadb.org/intal/ • Chile: ECLAC http://www.eclac.org/ • Costa Rica: FLACSO http://www.flacso.org/ • México: CEMLA http://www.cemla.org/ • Venezuela: CAF http://www.caf.com/ • Venezuela: SELA http://www.sela.org/ • Venezuela: CLAD http://www.clad.org.ve/ • United States: IADB http://www.iadb.org/ • United States: The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ • United States: IMF http://www.imf.org/ March 2005

22. THINK-TANKS IN LATIN AMERICA • Sample • Argentina: FIEL http://www.fiel.org/ • Argentina: Fundación Mediterránea http://www.ieral.org/ • Argentina: CIPPIEC http://www.cippec.org/ • Argentina: CEDI http://www.fgys.org/ • Argentina: CADAL http://www.cadal.org/ • Argentina: CEI /Torcuato http://www.utdt.edu/cei/ • Argentina: IADE http://www.iade.org.ar/ • Argentina: CENIT http://www.fund-cenit.org.ar/ • Argentina: CEMA http://www.cema.edu.ar/ • Argentina: Estudio Broda http://www.estudiobroda.com.ar/ • Argentina: Fundación Capital http://www.fcapital.com.ar/ • Argentina: Ecolatina http://www.ecolatina.com/ • Brazil: CEBRAP http://www.cebrap.org.br/ • Brazil: AC Pastore http://www.acpastore.com/ • Brazil: MBAssociados http://mbassociados.com.br/ • Brazil: Tendencias http://ww2.tendencias.inf.br/ • Brazil: Fernand Braudel Institute http://www.braudel.org.br/ • Brazil: FIPE http://www.fipe.com.br/ • Brazil: IBRE / FGV http://www.ibre.fgv.br/ March 2005

23. THINK-TANKS IN LATIN AMERICA • Colombia: Fedesarrollo http://www.fedesarrollo.org/ • Colombia: CEDE http://www.uniandes.edu.co/ • Chile: CIEPLAN http://www.cieplan.cl/ • Chile: Instituto Libertad y Desarrollo http://www.lyd.cl/ • Chile: CEP http://www.cepchile.cl/ • Chile: ILADES http://www.ilades.cl/ • Perú: IPE http://www.ipeportal.org/ • Perú: CIUP http://www.up.edu.pe/ciup/ • Perú: IPE http://www.iep.org.pe/ • Perú: Apoyo http://www.apoyo.com/ • Perú: GRADE http://www.grade.org.pe/ • México: CIDAC http://www.cidac.org/ • México: CIDE http://www.cide.edu/ • México: CIE / ITAM http://cie.itam.mx/ • Uruguay: CERES http://www.ceres-uy.org/ • Uruguay: CLAEH http://www.claeh.org.uy/ March 2005

24. THINK-TANKS ON LATIN AMERICA OUTSIDE THE REGION • FOCAL (CANADA): • Based in Ottawa and founded in 1990. http://www.focal.ca/ • Fosters informed analysis and debate on North and South American social, political and economic issues. • It has a full time staff of approximately 15. • THE INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE (USA): • Based in Washington and founded in 1983. • Engages public and private leaders throughout North and South America in an effort to discuss key hemispheric problems and opportunities. • It has a full time staff of approximately 29. March 2005

25. THINK-TANKS ON LATIN AMERICA OUTSIDE THE REGION • Council on Foreign Affairs – Latin American Studies Program: • Based in New York; 1 analyst on Latam; http://www.cfr.org/latinamerica/ • The Heritage Foundation: • Based in Washington; founded in 1973; 3 analysts on Latam. http://www.heritage.org/ • American Enterprise Institute: • Based in Washington; founded in 1943; 1 analyst on Latam; http://www.aei.org/ • Americas Society: • Based in New York and Washington; founded in 1965 by David Rockefeller; 2 experts on Latin America; http://www.americas-society.org/ • The Brookings Institution: • Based in Washington; founded in 1916; 5 experts on Latam; http://www.brook.edu/ • The Institute for International Economics: • Based in Washington; founded in 1981; 3 experts on Latam; http://www.iie.com/ • Rand - Latin American Policy Research Program: • Based in Santa Monica; founded in 1946; 11 experts Latam, http://www.rand.org/nsrd/latinamerica/staff.html • Cato Institute: • Based in Washington; founded in 1977; 3 experts on Latam ; http://www.cato.org/ • Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) • Based in Washington; founded in 1965; 7 experts on Latam; http://www.csis.org/ • Hoover Institution: • Based in Stanford; foudned in 1959; 6 experts on Latam; http://www.hoover.org/ • CIPE • Based in Washington; founded in 1983, 2 experst on Latam; http://www.cipe.org/ • Carnegie Endowment for Peace: • Based in Washington; founded in 1910; 5 experts Latam; http://www.carnegieendowment.org/ March 2005

26. THINK-TANKS ON LATIN AMERICA OUTSIDE THE REGION • Royal Institute for International Affairs: • Based in London; founded in1920; 5 experts on Latam; http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/ • Oxford Latin American Centre • Based in Oxford; founded in ; 13 experts on Latin America; http://www.lac.ox.ac.uk/ • Canning House: • Based in London; founded in 1943; http://www.canninghouse.com/ • Real Instituto Elcano: • Based in Madrid; founded in 2003; 2 experts on Latam; http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/ March 2005

27. EXPERTS AND POLITICS IN EMERGING DEMOCRACIES ENTER THE MATRIX: THE CASE OF PERÚ March 2005

28. PUBLIC TECHNOPOLS • There are, basically, three government institutions that take economic policy decisions in Peru: The Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Central Bank (BCR) and the Congress: March 2005

29. THE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND FINANCE • The Ministry of Economy and Finance • It is the institution that leads economic policy. • The function of formulating economic policies, formally lies with the Viceminister of Economy who makes economic policy proposals, with the support of four of his Offices (Economic and Social Affairs; International Economy, Competition and Private Investment; Public Revenue Policies; and, Multiannual Planning of the Public Sector). • In practice, the formulation of policies, is coordinated through an informal committee, comprising the Minister of Economy, the Vice minister of Treasury, the Head of the Advisors Staff and the Economic Studies Manager of the Central Bank. Once a policy is approved by this committee, the policy is implemented or sent to Congress for debate and approval. • The Viceministry of Economy, works with 40 employees, approximately, distributed in the abovementioned departments. March 2005

30. THE CENTRAL BANK • The Central Bank • Notwithstanding it’s responsibility in monetary issues the Central Bank also actively participates in the design of other economic policies (fiscal policy) through its participation in the aforementioned committees of the Ministry of Economy. • In these policy decisions, the Central Bank usually has considerable influence, as a consequence of its relatively high institutional development, and the tradition of having a high technical level “army” of analysts, statistics, economic models, etc; something that the Ministry of Economy (and the public sector in general) has not adequately developed. March 2005

31. THE CENTRAL BANK • The Economic Studies Department • The Economic Studies Department is responsible for the implementation of monetary policy. It has 120 employees, 80 of them economists. • The Department has an administrative structure influenced by the financial programming schemes of the International Monetary Fund. It is organized in five departments: global analysis sector, external sector, monetary sector, fiscal sector, and real estate sector. March 2005

32. THE CENTRAL BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH March 2005

33. THE CONGRESS: THE LACK OF AN ECONOMIC TECHNOPOL • The Congress • The Congress nas 120 congressmen. They all take part in various Committees where proposals are discussed. Once these proposals have been approved at Committtee level they go on to the Congress General Assembly (Pleno del Congreso) for final approval. The Congress has 24 ordinary committees and congressmen can participate in as many as 3 different committees. • The technical capacity of the Congress is extremely low as it’s staff do not have the sufficient preparation and necessary skills to give support to the congressmen in their economic policy duties. • In 2002, the Congress created the Parlamentary Investigation Center (CIP), with the aim to bring technical support to the decisions made by congressmen, but in actual fact, its support has been incipient, because the congressmen recieve support from private advisors that are paid through the national budget. March 2005

34. THE CONGRESS: THE LACK OF AN ECONOMIC TECHNOPOL • The Congress • Each congressman hires, on average, two private advisors, who specialize in different fields (usually, lawyers, economists and financial experts) who provide expert advice on legislative duties. • However, bearing in mind the intellectual capacity of the congressmen and the lack of control over their legislative responsibilities, the employment of these advisors does not necessarily assure quality in the formulation of economic policies. • Congress has 2.072 internal employees. Of these, 565 are professionals who carry out executive responsibilities and participate in the various committees. • The technical capacity of the Congress is however, very weak: 4 analysts in total for Congress. They are appointed by the President of the Congress and, in practice do not give professional service to congressists. March 2005

35. THINK-TANKS IN PERU Think-Tanks The three most important in Peru are: Apoyo Macroconsult; Grade and IPE. These institutions influence economic policy agendas, through periodical publications, research, press appearance, or by giving direct or indirect advice to the government. March 2005

36. THINK-TANKS IN PERU: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON March 2005

37. THINK-TANKS IN PERU • Apoyo Consulting • Apoyo Consulting is one of the firms belonging to The Apoyo Group. It was created in 1977, and offers economic, financial and managerial advice to its clients. It ha approximately 150 firms in it’s portfolio, including the most important Peruvian and international firms in Peru. • With a working team of more than 250 , APOYO has had an average income growth of 25 per cent per year since 1977. Its billing reaches US$ 200 per every million dollars of Peruvian GDP. • It affects economic policy through the advice that it gives to its clients, and the confidential documents that Apoyo prepares exclusively for them. • They also have monthly meetings, organized for their clients where they discuss important economic issues and politics. Additionally, its members participate in economics debates in different forums (seminars, conference, media, etc). • http://www.apoyo.com/english/eco_studies/ March 2005

38. THINK-TANKS IN PERU • Instituto Peruano de Economía (IPE) • The Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), was created in 1995 as an iniciative of 31 Peruvian firms. It was originally supported by the World Bank, receiving contributions from the World Bank Institutional Development Fund. • IPE is a private civil association and it’s aim is to promote the sustainable development of market economy in Peru, through research, analysis and other activities. Since 1999, IPE gets its funding from member contributions and from its investigations. • IPE is a very active player in policy debate (also through conferences, publications and public debate in press). During Fujimori´s government, most of its members had a direct participation, exercising different positions in the Ministry of Economy and Finance. • http://www.ipeportal.org/ March 2005

39. THINK-TANKS IN PERU • Grade • The Analysis Group for Development (GRADE) is a non governmental organization, that carries out investigations on public policy design and implementation. • Since it was set up in 1980, GRADE has carried out research in economics, education, environment, and social topics. The results of their investigations are known through different resources, such as publications, its web page, press, amongst others. • GRADE is directed by an Associated Assembly, and most of the principal researchers take an active part. This Assembly determines the topics and directions for research as well as defining the development strategies that guarantee GRADE´s independence. • GRADE particiates in policy debate at a very high and technical level, and it does not usually participate in public debate. • http://www.grade.org.pe/ March 2005

40. ACADEMICS AS TECHNOPOLS • Academics: • There are two universities with research centers contributing to economic publications. • One is the Research Center at “Universidad del Pacifico” (CIUP), and the other is the Center of Sociologic, Economic, Politics and Anthropology belonging to the “Universidad Catolica”(CISEPA). • However, their contribution to the economic policy debate is marginal. • “Centro Universitario Universidad del Pacífico” (CIUP): It was created in 1972 and is financed with public university funds and specfici financial programs from international and multilateral organizations. • http://www.up.edu.pe/ciup/ March 2005

41. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS BASED IN PERU • International Organizations • In Peru there are two main international organizations: IDB and CAF. IDB mainly develops operational labor such as checking the advance of financial programs to the government. CAF, although it has an economist, makes a marginal contribution to domestic economic policy debate. • However, the headquarters of IDB and CAF, as well as IMF, could accomplish an important role by conditioning domestic economic policies (for instance, when IDB finances programs and asks the government to achieve certain results or when IMF asks the government to achieve macroeconomic goals). March 2005

42. BANS BASED IN PERU Banks In the case of private banks, there are three important banking institutions with economic departments participating in the economic policy debate through their publications or press commentaries. These institutions are BBVA Banco Continental, Banco de Credito and Banco Wiese Sudameris. These institutions contribute in a similar way to economic debate, basically through publications, articles, press appearances, seminars, conferences and interviews. March 2005

43. TECHNICAL RATIONALITY AND POLITICAL RATIONALITY: REFORMS TO PENSION FUNDS AND FISCAL REFORMS March 2005

44. 2. How is political rationality and technical rationality articulated in Latin America? • The question is key to explaining the success and failure of economic policies in Latin America as Fernando Henrique Cardoso indicated in his speech during the 2004 BID Annual Congress. • To raise the level of decisional responsibility and institutional transparency, we need to reinforce the production base and the spread of existing knowledge in open societies, as well as articulating the shared knowledge network between the State and the knowledge production centers. • This articulation is key to the perspective of democratic governance. It is even more relevant in emerging democracies. March 2005

45. We understand the Tecnopols to be “knowledge institutions”. This means institutions that facilitate the spread of expert knowledge and its inclusion in the process of elaboration and implementation of economic policies. • In this sense, their purpose will not only be to make the cognitive map of the specialized institutions dedicated to the creation and application of knowledge, but also to analyze the process of the incorporation of this knowledge into the political and administrative institutions and, above all, in the political process both at executive and legislative power levels. March 2005

46. One of the working hypothesis is that the quality of the economic policies will depend on the level on which the expert knowledge would be institutionalized in the policy-making-process (PMP). • This would depend on two main factors: firstly, the existence of a critical mass of knowledge through the technopols with capacity to generate and spread expert knowledge. • Secondly, it is essential that this knowledge be filtered in an effective manner in the PMP by an interaction between political and technical rationality. March 2005

47. To analyze this articulation we will use the case study method, centering the analysis on certain comparative examples. • The first selected case study will be the one concerning the reform of pension funds. This reform is central and the region has been a precursor in this field. • Above all, we have the necessary support to be able to specify the example. • The second selected case study will be the one on fiscal reform. March 2005

48. In this part we will stress the following points: • Identification of the relevant actors and, in particular of the regulatory organisms in each of the selected countries. • What is the institutional capacity to propose, articulate, and spread reforms in the areas of pension funds and fiscal reform? • Do they have the disposal of internal analysis services? • How does it incorporate, process and spread expert knowledge in pension funds and fiscal matters? Who are the other technopols speakers? • How is the interaction of the organism and its proposals with the executive and legislative powers articulated? • What is the role of non-national organisms in this process (international organisms, international banks, foreign academics, etc.)? March 2005

49. Ulysses and the Sirens: Political Rationality and Technical Expertise in Latin America Emerging Democracies Javier Santiso Chief Economist for Latin America and Emerging Markets Economic Research Department BBVA Washington, DC, March 2005 Inter-American Development Bank March 2005