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TAFs During A Rapidly Changing Severe Weather Event (s) June 22, 2010

TAFs During A Rapidly Changing Severe Weather Event (s) June 22, 2010. By Mike Ryan. The Setup. Upper trough passing through the region Warm Front draped across the forecast area Severe Convection ongoing and impacting Terminals upon arrival for midnight shift

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TAFs During A Rapidly Changing Severe Weather Event (s) June 22, 2010

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  1. TAFs During A Rapidly Changing Severe Weather Event (s)June 22, 2010 By Mike Ryan

  2. The Setup • Upper trough passing through the region • Warm Front draped across the forecast area • Severe Convection ongoing and impacting Terminals upon arrival for midnight shift • As shift wore on, was handling Aviation AND Radar/Warning responsibilities

  3. 00Z NAM

  4. 00Z GFS

  5. 850MB FLOW

  6. 01-12Z Radar Loop

  7. Monday Evening (01-04Z) 00Z Aviation Discussion BETTER THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES INTO THE AREA COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. APPEARS HIGHEST THREAT 220400Z-220900Z…BUT SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY LINGER BEYOND 221200Z IN THE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AROUND 040. 00z TAFs TAF KIND 212331Z 2200/2306 17008KT P6SM FEW040 SCT100 SCT250 FM220300 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2205/2208 3SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM220800 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250

  8. TAF KIND 220423Z 2204/2306 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2205/2208 33020G35KT 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM220800 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250

  9. TAF KIND 220503Z 2205/2306 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2205/2208 33020G40KT 1SM TSRA BKN015 OVC035CB FM220800 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250

  10. 06Z TAFs – June 22 06Z Aviation Discussion/KIND and KLAF TAFs SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THIS TIME…AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 221300Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES AROUND 040. TAF KIND 220525Z 2206/2312 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2206/2209 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 TAF KLAF 220525Z 2206/2306 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2206/2208 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM220800 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 25009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 26010KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND TIL 221300

  11. 06Z TAFs – June 22 06Z KBMG and KHUF TAFs TAF KBMG 220525Z 2206/2306 19006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2207/2210 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM221000 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221300 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 23009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 24010KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND TIL 221300 TAF KHUF 220525Z 2206/2306 19006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2207/2209 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM220900 20006KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 BKN250 FM221100 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25010KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250

  12. TAF KIND 220706Z 2207/2312 18006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2207/2209 33020G40KT 1SM TSRA BKN020 OVC040CB FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250

  13. 0830Z TAF Adjustments TAF KIND 220826Z 2208/2312 19006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2208/2210 2SM TSRA BR SCT015 OVC025CB FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24010KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 TAF KHUF 220826Z 2208/2306 17006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2209/2211 2SM TSRA BKN025 OVC040CB FM221100 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 24009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 25010KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 TAF KLAF 220826Z 2208/2306 17006KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 TEMPO 2209/2212 2SM -TSRA BR SCT020 OVC040CB FM221200 21007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN100 BKN250 FM221600 25009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM221900 26010KT P6SM SCT040CB SCT100 BKN250 FM230200 23006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND TIL 221300

  14. 12Z TAFs – June 22 12Z Aviation Discussion/KIND, KBMG, KHUF TAFs THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TAF KIND 221120Z 2212/2318 19010KT P6SM SCT035CB BKN100 TEMPO 2212/2214 3SM -TSRA BR OVC035CB FM221600 24012KT P6SM SCT040 SCT250 FM221900 25011KT P6SM SCT045CB BKN250 FM230400 21006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 TAF KBMG 221120Z 2212/2312 15005KT P6SM SCT025CB BKN100 TEMPO 2212/2214 3SM -TSRA BR OVC025CB FM221600 23009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM222000 24010KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN250 FM230300 20003KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND TIL 221300 TAF KHUF 221120Z 2212/2312 19006KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN100 TEMPO 2212/2213 3SM -TSRA BR OVC040CB FM221600 23009KT P6SM SCT040 SCT250 FM221900 24010KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN250 FM230400 18004KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250

  15. Some Final Points • Utilize the HRRR…other mesoscale models • Utilize the TDWR…especially when updating for convection approaching KIND

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