1 / 34

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEN WIDELSKI October 11, 2005. BACKGROUND. GLEN COVE, NEW YORK 12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY 11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE 03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO 04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK. AGENDA. BASIC PROCESSES

tejana
Download Presentation

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. LOW CLOUDS ANDIFR FORECASTING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEN WIDELSKI October 11, 2005

  2. BACKGROUND • GLEN COVE, NEW YORK • 12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY • 11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE • 03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO • 04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK

  3. AGENDA • BASIC PROCESSES • FORECAST FACTORS • FLIGHT CATEGORIES – REVIEW • NWS AVIATION SOFTWARE/ PRODUCTS • TOOLS OF THE TRADE • YOU MAKE THE CALL- INTERACTIVE • CONCLUSION

  4. BASIC PROCESSES • A) LOW CLOUDS - INGREDIENTS I: MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WAA) 2: LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) 3: SURFACE WIND FLOW 4: UPSLOPE FLOW

  5. BASIC PROCESSES • B) FOG –TYPES AND INGREDIENTS 1: RADIATION -WIND SPEED 5 KTS OR LESS -CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY -SOIL MOISTURE 2: ADVECTION -MOISTURE TRANSPORT 3: UPSLOPE

  6. NAME THAT FOG!

  7. HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?

  8. AND FINALLY…

  9. FORECAST FACTORS • CAPROCK

  10. FACTORS CON’T • A DISTANT MOISTURE SOURCE

  11. FACTORS CONT’D • SLOPING TERRAIN TO THE WEST

  12. FAA FLIGHT CATEGORIES • VFR - Visual Flight Rules; Visibility > 5 SM Ceiling > 3000 feet • MVFR - Marginal Visual Flight Rules; Visibility 3 to 5 SM; Ceiling 1000 to 3000 feet • IFR - Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility 1 to <3 statute miles; Ceiling 500 to 900 feet • LIFR - Low Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility <1 statute mile; Ceiling < 500 feet

  13. SOFTWARE AND PRODUCTS • TAF -TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST -5 NM HOLE AROUND CENTER OF RUNWAY COMPLEX -FOUR ROUTINE ISSUANCES PER DAY 12Z, 18Z, 00Z AND 06Z -SITES: KLBB AND KCDS

  14. LOW CLOUD TAF KLBB 101730Z 101818 25008KT P6SM SCT020 SCT200 TEMPO 2201 5SM –TSRA BKN035CB FM0100 36012KT P6SM –SHRA SCT020 OVC050 FM0600 08010KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM1000 15012KT 2SM BR BKN006 OVC010 FM1400 20015KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120

  15. NWS TAF SOFTWARE • AVNFPS -PART OF AWIPS

  16. TWEB -TRANSCRIBED WEATHER BROADCAST -TWEB ROUTE: 50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE CONNECTING THE ANCHOR POINTS OF THE ROUTE. -FOUR ISSUANCES PER DAY -KAMA-KLBB-KMAF

  17. LOW CLOUD TWEB 185 TWEB 100314 KAMA-KLBB-KMAF. ALL HGTS AGL EXC TOPS. KAMA-KPVW P6SM –RA SCT020 OVC040 AREAS 4SM TSRA BKN020CB…07Z P6SM SCT010 OVC030 AREAS 2SM BR SHRA OVC010. KPVW-KMAF P6SM SCT020 BKN050 SCT 5SM –RA BR OVC015.

  18. TWEB EDITOR

  19. TOOLS OF THE TRADE A) UPPER AIR OR MODEL SOUNDINGS

  20. B) VAD WIND PROFILER

  21. C) * SATELLITE DATA *

  22. Equipment Used By The NWS To Monitor The Weather Imagery From Space Satellites

  23. D) LOCAL OBSERVATIONS

  24. E) MODEL STATISTICS • FOUS14 KWBC 060357 (Forecast office and name, date/time)DCA  ESC  NGM MOS GUIDANCE   3/06/02  0000 UTCDAY /MAR   6             /MAR   7                /MAR   8HOUR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12MX/MN                     59           39           54           24TEMP   37 34 33 38 45 53 52 49 46 43 40 42 47 51 42 39 35 30 24DEW 27 28 28 30 32 36 40 38 41 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 20 19 19CLDS   OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK SC SC SC CL CL CLWDIR   26 18 08 12 14 14 15 18 24 27 28 29 29 29 29 33 01 02 00WSPD  01 04 06 10 11 12 16 18 13 15 12 20 24 22 14 12 14 08 00CIG        4  5  4  4  5  6 7  6  3  2  1     5     6VIS        3  4  3  5  5  5  5  4  2  2  1     3     4OBVIS    H  H  H  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F     H     N

  25. YOU MAKE THE CALL

  26. HEAD TO WORK

  27. SAY HELLO TO THE MIC

  28. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ROLL IN

  29. THE NEW DATA SHOWS… • 1 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG • 600 FOOT BROKEN CEILING

  30. WHAT FLIGHT CATEGORY? • A) MVFR • B) IFR • C) LIFR • D) VFR • E) LIFR VISIBILITY IFR CEILING

  31. ANSWER • IFR !!

  32. CONCLUSION • GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF BASIC PROCESSES CAN MAKE FOR BETTER PLANNING AND PREPARATION. • MUCH DATA AVAILABLE VIA WEB • NWS SINCE 1870 – DEDICATED TO PROVIDING QUALITY PRODUCTS TO THE SOUTH PLAINS

More Related