Signature Ratification Due Date 13-June-92 05-January-94 05-April-97

1. Adaptation Police Framework: Perspective in the Context of Second National Communication – Central American project and other initiativesLuis R.Paz CastroE.mail: lpaz@met.inf.cu

2. PRESENTATION OF CUBA CUBA UNDER UNFCCC SignatureRatificationDue Date 13-June-92 05-January-94 05-April-97 National Focal Point Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment

3. PRESENTATION OF CUBA CUBA AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL SignatureRatificationDue Date 13-March-99 30-April-02 30-July-02 National Focal Point Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment

4. National Climate Change Group Cuba Government Host Ministry Ciencia, Tecnología y Medio Ambiente Coordination Institute of Meteorology Sectors • Relaciones exteriores • Transporte • Pesca • Construcción y producción de cemento • Recursos hídricos • Instituciones académicas y de investigación • ONGs ambientales • Energía, minas e industria química • Uso de la tierra • Agricultura, bosques y producción azucarera Technical teams • GHG Inventory • Vulnerability and adaptation • Mitigation

6. National Communication • Executive Summary. • Chapter 1. General introduction. • Chapter 2. National circumstances. • Chapter 3. GHG Inventory for 1990 and 1994. • Chapter 4. Mitigation options. • Chapter 5. Climate variability. Impacts and adaptation. • Chapter 6. Vulnerability and adaptation to Climate change • Chapter 7. Systematic Observation. • Chapter 8. Education and public awareness. • Chapter9. Possible projects.

7. National Circumstances Cuba is an archipelago composed by two major island (Cuba and Isla de la Juventud) and 1600 keys. Total area: 110 860 km2 Estimated population in 1998: 11 139 900 inhabitants Population Density: 100.5 hab/km2 Cuban climate is tropical seasonally wet. Mean Temperature: 24°C-26°C Mean annual rainfall: 1 300 mm. Tropical cyclones are one of the more important events.

8. Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptation (1) • Main considerations. • Any change in future climate will be superimpose to climate variability. • The impacts of climate variability are actual problems. • Adaptation to climate variability is the beginning of the anticipated adaptation process.

9. Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptation (2) • Centella et al (1997) indicate that the climate in Cuba shown important variations in the mid of 70s. The variations are characterized by: • An increase of annual mean temperature (0.5°) and minimum temperature (1.4°C), with a significant reduction of diurnal range of temperature. • Increase of winter rainfall. • Increase of extreme events frequency including drought. • Increase of El NIÑO event influences and impacts. • This variations are consistent with the IPCC reports and results from other research for atmospheric circulation developed in Cuba.

10. Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptation (3) • STRATEGIC ACTIONS • Institutional capacity to develop climate prediction and early warning systems (including more research on climate variability and the improve of the observation systems). • Institutional capacity to develop climate aplications (Human health, agriculture, water resources) • Institutional capacity to anticipate the potentials impacts of extreme events (a more strong centralized system of response. Mainly focused on human lives).

11. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (1) Evaluated Sectors • Freshwater resources • Coastal Zones and Marine Resources • Agriculture and Forests • Human Health • Human Settlements and Land Use Changes • Wildlife and Biodiversity Time Frame 30 year-periods centered on 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2100

12. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (2) Climate change scenarios were derived by scaling General Circulation Model outcomes with simple climate model results (MAGICC/SCENGEN approach). The scenarios were based on: • IS92a and KyotoA1 emission scenarios. • IPCC range and mid value for climate sensibility. • Three GCMs spatial patterns. Future Climate (i.e. 2100) could be: From 1.6 to 2.5°C warmer than present. Between -10 and 19% less or more rain than present. Sea level rise from 20 to 95 cm.

13. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (3) Impacts overview (I) • Sea level rise could cause main climate change impacts in Cuba. It could: • Reduce the availability and quality of freshwater. • Affect negatively a 3.5 % of country area. • Increase the vulnerability of 185 Human settlements and 5 084 376 inhabitants. • Strongly affect Mangrove and coastal ecosystems.

14. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (4) Impacts overview (II) Even if rainfall increases, warming could favors the evaporation and a more or less enhancement of aridity process. The main associated impacts could be: • Reduction of forestry areas. • Loss of biodiversity. • More frequent and intensive drought process. • Crops yields decrease. • Reduction of the area for agricultural activities.

15. Adaptation. General overview • Adaptation strategies are oriented to ensure the following: • Protection and better use of water resources. Increasing the efficiency in water resource management. • Reduce the vulnerability of beach and mangroves ecosystems by means of protection and conservation measures. • Conservation and protection of forestry resources. Increasing the forest cover. • Improve the agricultural system, increasing the use of climate information and oriented agricultural climate predictions in design and planning. • Continuing improvement of human settlements and human health system, incorporating the climate research in the planning strategies of this sectors.

16. Lessons and Limitations • Institutional capacity help the process, but it could be improved. Additional funds to improve the observation systems and institutions. • A better understanding of actual climate variability is important for adaptation process. More research, technical capacity and funds are required. • Integrated V&A assessment is a key aspect of the process that should be addressed in the next steps. Capacity Building. • Adaptation and mitigation costs must be deeply assessed. Capacity Building • The future process must improve the integration of national programs on climate change, desertification and biodiversity. Capacity Building and additional financing • Education and public awareness could be improved. Incorporation of stakeholders and key sectors.

17. APF Structure 1. Scope project 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterize future climate-related risks Increase adaptive capacity Engagestakeholders 4. Develop adaptation strategy 5. Continue adaptation process

18. PROJECT RLA/01/G31/A/1G/99 Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba The region will serve as the pilot region for elaborating and applying an APF for preparing adaptation strategies, policies and measures.

19. IPF PROYECT CUB/03/009/01/34 Development and Adaptation to Climate Change • Components: • To test the APF in selected rural areas in Cuba and Dominican Republic; • Scientific study about the risks relating to drought, climatic extreme event that affect frequently both countries, and; • To strengthen the links with the regional initiative: “Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean Region” (ACCC).

20. Strategy of the Project Capacity building at local and regional level to face the risk of climate variability and the climate change with special regard to drought • To motive and to capacitate of provincial, municipal and local leaders in order to facilitate the planning and intervention; • To enhance technical capacity to generate relevant information and developing early warning systems; • To establish linkage with others projects in order to maximize the resources available and enhance the impacts; • To enhance the linkage with ACCC through seminars, workshops and exchange of information.

21. COORDINATION General coordination UNDP-INSMET CUBA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA SMARN CITMA MEP Oficina de Meteorología Secretaría Agricultura Instituto de Planificación Física Instituto de Meteorología

22. Location of the Case Study, coastal zone of Las Tunas province

23. Risk of drought Very high Sur de Guantánamo

24. Area of the Case Study 3 municipalities: Manatí, Puerto Padre and Jesús Menéndez • Total area 2 771 km2 • Population 180 000 inhabitants • Population density 68 inhabitants/ km2

25. individual • farmers • key informing • farmers Individual interview Group Interview Open interview Types of survies: Governmental representatives, socioeconomic sectors, scientific institutions, etc.

26. Members of the team

27. Interview to a farmer group

28. Presentation the Project to Local Authorities, Las Tunas, October 13, 2003

29. SINERGIES AMONG THE PROJECTS CUB/03/009/01/34 RLA/01/G31/1G/99 • Assessment of climate evolution. • Preliminary test of APF • Regional climate Model • Complementation of Climate scenarious • capacitation of stakeholders • Adaptation technologies. • Equipments • Materials and methods for training CIDA-CCCDF UoT & INSMET

30. General considerations • Adaptation is an immediate action from which we can extract the necessary teachings to adjust to socioeconomic system in a progressive way. 2. To learn from the past and the current situation it can mean a better preparation for the future. 3. Adaptation is a process that should begins with reduction of vulnerability to current climatic variability.

31. General considerations… • Adaptation to climate change should incorporate a better understanding of the different actors of a country; and education of its inhabitants should be part of the adaptation strategy. • 5. The APF is a good tool to incorporate the population, andincrease the education and public awareness on climate change issues.

32. General considerations…. • We understand that a single country doesn’t have all the capacity and experience to develop all the necessary actions for the adaptation to climate variability and climate change. 8. The knowledge there are not borders and the cooperation is the best strategy to reach the success.

33. !Fin y Gracias! End and Thanks!