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Itz Keihan Takeshi Naritomi

Case Study: Syria. Itz Keihan Takeshi Naritomi. Outline. Introduction Historical background Timeline of the crisis Actions taken by the international community Failures of the international community R2P evaluation Conclusion Syria today. Introduction. Syria. Introduction.

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Itz Keihan Takeshi Naritomi

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  1. Case Study: Syria ItzKeihan Takeshi Naritomi

  2. Outline • Introduction • Historical background • Timeline of the crisis • Actions taken by the international community • Failures of the international community • R2P evaluation • Conclusion • Syria today

  3. Introduction Syria

  4. Introduction Syrian people Religion Ethnicity Christianity(10%) Islam (90%) Arab (90%) Non-Arab (10%) (Kurds,Turkmen,Armenian ) Sunni (74%) Shiite (13%) Alawites (9%) Assad Gov’t Opposition

  5. Historical Background Brief Modern History • Syria was ruled by various Islamic dynasties before it was invaded by Ottoman Empire • French mandate (1920-46) • Gained independence from France in 1946 • Involvement in Arab-Israel War in 1948 • 1950’s and 1960’s are marked by a state of political instability • single party rule until Ba’ath party was established

  6. Historical Background Ba’ath party rule • Founded in 1947 • Ideology: Arab nationalism, Pan-Arabism, Arab socialism and anti-Imperialism interests • Ba’ath party with the help of military committee carried a successful coup which established Ba’ath party rule in Syria • General Hafiz Al-Assad seized power in 1970 • Installed authoritarian regime, single party rule, and brutally repressive

  7. Historical Background Ba’ath party rule • Muslim Brotherhood uprising and Hamma massacre occurred, which resulted in the of killing of 10,000 people in 1982 • Hafiz Al-Assad was replaced by his son Bashar Al-Assad upon his death in 2000 • Bashar Al-Assad continued to rule Syria till Arab spring hit Syria…

  8. Timeline 2011 etc. • Mid-Mar: Protest begins • Jul. 29: Free Syrian Army • Aug. 23: Syrian National Council • Apr. 29: HRC adopts Res. S-16/1 • May: US and EU tighten sanctions • Aug. 22: HRC holds a Special Session • Oct. 4: Russia and China veto a DR at SC

  9. Timeline 2011-2012 • Nov. 12: LAS suspends Syria’s membership • Nov. 27: LAS imposes economic sanctions • Dec. - Jan: LAS observer mission • Feb. 4: Russia and China veto a DR at SC • Feb. 23: Kofi Annan is appointed as Joint Special Envoy • By Feb: 7,500 dead

  10. Timeline 2012 • Mid-Mar: Annan presents six-point proposal • Apr. 14: SC adopts Res. 2042 • Apr. 21: SC adopts Res. 2043… UNSMIS • May: Diplomatic expulsion by US, UK, France, Germany, etc. • Violence intensifies • Jun. 6: Assad names Riyad Hijab as PM to form a new government

  11. Timeline 2012 • Jun. 16: UN suspends UNSMIS • Jul. 19 : Russia and China veto a DR under Chapter VII • Jul. 20: SC adopts Res. 2059 • Aug. 2: Annan resigns • Jun. 22: Syria shoots down a Turkish reconnaissance plane • Some officials defect

  12. Timeline 2012-2013 • Oct. 3: Syria mortar fire kills 5 civilians in Turkey • Nov. 11: National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is established • Mar. 18: GhassanHitto was elected as interim PM • May-Jun: sarine nerve gas is used • Aug. 17: LakhdarBrahimiis appointed as Joint Special Envoy • Jan: $ 1.5 bn. aid is pledged

  13. Timeline 2013 • By Jun 26: 100,000 dead - regime side; 43,000 - opposition side; 18,000 - civilians; 37,000

  14. Actions Taken by the International Community Human Rights Council • Res. S-16/1 (Apr. 29, 2011) - OHCHR’s fact-finding mission - found that widespread and systematic attacks could amount to “crimes against humanity” • Special Session (Aug. 22, 2011) - Commission of Inquiry - extensive human rights violations

  15. Actions Taken by the International Community General Assembly • 66/176 (Dec. 19, 2011) - implementation of a peace plan by LAS • 66/253/A (Feb. 16, 2012) - appointment of Special Envoy • 66/253/B (Aug. 3, 2012) - political transition • 67/183 (Dec. 20, 2012) - financial support for humanitarian issues • 67/262 (May. 15, 2013)

  16. Actions Taken by the International Community Security Council • DR (Oct. 4, 2011) - warning of possible sanctions N: A: • DR (Feb. 4, 2012) - an end to all acts of violence - release of detainees - withdrawal of armed forces from civilian areas - freedom of access to the UN, NGOs and other humanitarian monitors N: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duzE3zZqTVc

  17. Actions Taken by the International Community Security Council • Res. 2042 (Apr. 14, 2012) -implementation of six-point proposal - an advance team of 30 unarmed military observers • Res. 2043 (Apr. 21, 2012) - establishment of UNSMIS for 90 days mandate - to monitor a cessation of armed violence - to monitor and support the full implementation of six-point proposal

  18. Actions Taken by the International Community Security Council • DR (Jul. 19, 2012) - threat of sanctions - renewal of the UNSMIS mandate - extension of the UNSMIS for 45 days N: A: • Res. 2059 (Jul. 20, 2012) - extension of the UNSMIS for 30 days

  19. Failures of the International Community League of Arab States • Economic sanctions (Nov. 27, 2011) - limited effects without the support from Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan • Observer Mission (Dec. 2011 - Jan. 2012) - terms of remit was negotiated with the Assad regime - head was al-Dabi - lasted for only a month

  20. Failures of the International Community Security Council vs. • West - regime change and sanctions • Russia - naval base in Tartusand arms export • Russia & China - lessons learned from the Libya experience

  21. Is the (military) intervention in Syria justifiable based on the R2P criteria? If yes, Then why has the International Community not been able to authorize coercive (military) intervention in Syria?

  22. R2P Criteria R2P Criteria

  23. R2P Criteria Just Cause Military intervention for the purpose of protecting Syrian civilians can be justified because: • Crimes against humanity continue by Syrian government: --victims include innocent women and children-- massacre/torturing/imprisoning/denying access to food, water and medical supplies/chemical weapons • Basher Al-Assad is a war criminal

  24. R2P Criteria Right Intention Is the main intention of the military action to prevent human suffering or are there other motives? • Intervention has not taken place yet • However, if the intervention takes place by the West: • Primary intention: protecting civilian from brutality of Assad regime • Ulterior goal: regime change

  25. R2P Criteria Last Resort Has the int’l community taken every other measure? • Major unilateral or multilateral measures have been taken so far. • Expulsion of diplomatic contact with Syria by US, UK, France, Germany, etc. • Suspension of Syrian membership and imposing sanction by the League of Arab States

  26. R2P Criteria Last Resort • What should have taken place by UNSC before military measure? • Sanctions • No-Fly Zone • Arms Embargo • Unification of militarized oppositions and direct assistance to them • Due to the current humanitarian situations in Syria, military intervention is crucial

  27. R2P Criteria Proportional means Minimum military intervention to secure human safety If the int’l community intervenes, measure tips to be considered in order to minimize human casualties: • Syria is very populated compared to Libya, advance tactic to avoid civilian causality should be used. • Though intervention might lead to casualties, the death toll may not be as high as the number of killing currently committed by the Syrian Army.

  28. R2P Criteria Reasonable prospects The consequences of intervention are very unpredictable • Syrian opposition is not unified under one leadership, possibility of sectarian conflict. • Arms support from Russia as well as men and arms from Iran may give the Syrian Army an opportunity to commit genocide. • However, the status quo of Syria is getting close to meet R2P criteria in order to justify intervention for the sake of halting human atrocity.

  29. R2P Criteria Right Authority • If intervention happens, it can be legitimate only if it is authorized by UNSC: • United Nations itself can intervene • Or, any country who is willing to intervene based on the Third Pillar of R2P, E.G United States is willing to intervene under SC authorization. • Intervention should be multilateral, collectively mobilized, endorsement of China and Russia is crucial

  30. Conclusion Why has intervention not been taken place? “Preventing mass atrocities and genocide is a core national security interest and a core moral responsibility of the United States.” – Obama • Assad has P2 (Russia and China on its side) which will veto any resolution concerning intervention. • On the other hand, US is willing to intervene under SC authorization which is not possible at the moment since P2 opposes such action. • Which brings us to the question, IsSyria the End of the R2P?

  31. Syria Today Current Humanitarian Situations According to OCHA: • 4.25 million people displaced within the country • 1.6 million fled their country and sought refugees in the neighboring countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. The number is expected to increase to 3.5 million by the end of this year. • Entire new generation is at risk of growing up traumatized. • Syrian economy has collapsed, shops are closed and food is scarce, and access to healthcare is extremely limited. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_GHM0DsuCg

  32. Thank you for your attention!

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