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Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - Presentation by Luciana Crosilla and Mauro Politi

This handbook provides an overview of economic tendency surveys, their purposes, and best practices. It outlines the process of creating the handbook and includes preliminary results from a global consultation.

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Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - Presentation by Luciana Crosilla and Mauro Politi

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  1. HANDBOOK ON ECONOMIC TENDENCY SURVEYS Presentation by Luciana Crosilla and Mauro Politi (ISTAT – National Statistical Institute, Italy) Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  2. Outline • 1. Motivation(introductory notes; why an ETS handbook?) • 2. The process(preparationstep; milestones;method of work; arranging the drafting) • 3. The handbook(purposes;intended readership; about the handbook; an overview) • 4. The gobalconsultation: preliminaryresults(summary of comments) • 5. Concludingremarks 1 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  3. Motivation • Introductory notes • UN Statistical Commission considered an international programme of work on short-term economic statistics as part of a coordinated statistical response to the economic and financial crisis ; • ETS are a theme comprised in the international programme because: • ETS data have been recognized as tools to improve the estimation of other economic indicators and as components of composite indicators; • Confidence indicators are useful in providing an early warning of changes in economic activity (UN, EUROSTAT); Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 2

  4. Motivation • Why an ETS handbook? • UN encourages countries to conduct ETS (if not doing so already) in respect the role of the surveys data in the economic research; • UN has identified a handbook as a tool to assist member States in compiling and reporting internationally comparable tendency survey data; • the shortcoming of a unique guide for “economic” tendency surveys (the current handbooks deal with the consumer surveys or the business “traditional” surveys, excluding e.g. agriculture sector) comprising: • best practices • harmonized principles • Guidance; 3 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  5. The process • Preparation step: the team • International working group • The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) – leader – Italy • Statistics Netherlands (CBS) – Netherlands • The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF – ETH) – Switzerland • Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA former NSCB) – Philippines • The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 4 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  6. The process • Preparation step: the Team • External revisers • The European Commission (DG Ecfin) • French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) • Contributors • InstitutoBrasileiro de Economia, FundaçãoGetulio Vargas, IBRE-FGV 5 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  7. The process • Milestones • February 2012: decision of the Statistical Commission of UN to produce a handbook; • October 2012: constitution of the Working Group; • Time span for the realization of a first draft of the handbook: January 2013 - October 2013; • November 2013: the first draft was submitted to the revisers; • Realization of a second draft (including further comments of the revisers): January-may 2014; • UN Global consultation: 28 July – 29 August 2014; • The finalization of the handbook is expected by beginning of 2015. 6 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  8. The process • Method of work • No meetings (pros and cons); • No multi-conference call (time gap between countries and language difficulties); • Bilateral conference call; • Contacts only by e-mail; • Standardization of the template to write the chapters; • always in touch with UNSD; • Hard centralized work of harmonization and revision (different experiences, languages…) to avoid repetitions, non homogeneous 7 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  9. The Process • Arranging the drafting • The drafting of the handbook was arranged for chapters: each chapter deals with a (main) topic. • For each chapter: • three/four working group members worked • One role was assigned to each member, among: • Leader (responsible of the chapter: it coordinated the drafting of the chapter and, in some cases, it has contributed in the drafting) • Contributor • Reviser • For some chapters (it depends on the topic), an external reviser (EC, INSEE) was assigned. 8 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  10. The process Arranging the drafting • The deadline for the finalization of the first draft and of the reviseddraftwasassigned; • To each contributor wasassigned the drafting of one/two sub-paragraphsexpected in the chapter. • EXAMPLE : Chapter 4 4.1 Business surveys (assigned to CBS) 4.2 The consumers survey sample (assigned to ISTAT) 4.3 Frequency and timeline (assigned to NSCB) 9 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  11. The handbook Purposes • to constitute internationally accepted set of guidelines applicable to all countries and multiple economic activities; • to provide guidance on the process of setting up tendency survey operations, data processing and analysis; • to make users aware of the statistical methods and techniques that are employed in tendency surveys (associated with composite tendency indicators). 10 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  12. The handbook Purposes • More specifically, the handbook should provide best practices and harmonized principles on: • tendency survey sample selection • questionnaire design • survey questions • survey execution • data processing • dissemination of results • use of composite tendency indicators 11 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  13. The handbook Intended readership • National statistical organizations that already carry out or intend to carry out tendency surveys in future; • Users of the survey data as researchers, analysts, compilers of composite indicators etc.; • Policymakers and anybody related to monitoring economic conditions and business cycles. 12 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  14. The handbook • About the handbook • The handbook is about: • methods that are currently used (or could be used) to produce tendency survey data; • some related aspects (e.g., process design, quality) • The handbook is not about: • laws, regulations, etc. • official definitions of concepts 13 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  15. The handbook • About the handbook • In preparing the handbook, the working group has taken into account the existing guidelines on the subject (European Commission and OECD); • The new handbook expands the scope of the existing guidelines to include more economic sectors ; • it focuses explicitly on the needs of developing countries in administering tendency surveys. Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 14

  16. The handbook About the handbook • The handbook is made up of: • 10 chapters • 9 topics: each chapter deals with one main topic • Examples of topic: survey frame and sample design • the questionnaire design • List of abbreviations and acronyms 15 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  17. The handbook An overview CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 2 Constructing ETS: scope 3 The questionnaire design 4 Survey frame and sample design 5 Estimation procedures and accuracy 6 Data collection 7 Managing sources of non-sampling errors 8 Processing tendency survey data 9 Data dissemination and publication 10 Use of tendency survey results 16 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  18. The handbook An overview • Chapter 1 - Introduction • Define the scope of the handbook and introduces the main characteristics of the ETS. • Main goals of the handbook • Qualitative data: characteristics and place in the system of economic statistics • On the use of ETS • Survey process • Outline of the handbook 17 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  19. The handbook An overview • Chapter 2 - Constructing ETS: scope • Describes the goal of ETS and contains the main definitions. • The scope of BTS • Sector coverage • Regional Coverage • Survey units • Basic principles of questions • Survey frequency • The scope of CTS • Target population, sampling and reporting unit • Principle of the questions • Survey mode and frequency 18 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  20. The handbook An overview • Chapter 3 – The questionnaire design • Principles guiding the construction and selection of questions are discussed as well as the choice of response scales. • Introduction • General considerations • Business and consumer tendency surveys: main differences • Formulation of questions • Choosing subjects and sectors • Measurement scale • Reference period • Seasonality • Structural Information on respondents • Pre-testing of the questionnaire 19 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  21. The handbook An overview • Chapter 3 – The questionnaire design (continued) • An example of harmonized questionnaire • BTS at a monthly frequency • BTS at a quarterly frequency • BTS at a (semi-) annual frequency • CTS at monthly and quarterly frequencies 20 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  22. The handbook An overview • Chapter 4 – Survey frame and sample design • It focuses on important steps in the entire process of ETS: from where and how to select a subset of units (i.e. the sample). Moreover, the selection methods of units from survey frame, the allocation criteria and the sample size are discussed. • Introduction • Survey frame • Business tendency surveys • Consumer tendency surveys 21 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  23. The handbook An overview • Chapter 4 – Survey frame and sample design (continued) • Sample design • Selecting units: probabilistic and deterministic samples • Sample design features • Panel sample • BTS: specific features of sample design • CTS: specific features of sample design Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 22

  24. The handbook An overview • Chapter 5 – Estimation procedure and accuracy • In ETS estimation processes, weighting schemes are usually used: the goal of the weighting procedures and the choice of specific weights are described in detail. Sampling error and its calculation are illustrated. • Introduction • Target variables and size weights • Why use size weights in BTS? • Choice of size weights in BTS • Estimators and sample weights • Horvitz-Thompson and ratio estimators • Inclusion probabilities 23 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  25. The handbook An overview • Chapter 5 – Estimation procedure and accuracy (continued) • Post-stratification • Accuracy and sample size • General theory • Example: Simple Random Sampling • Design effect Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 24

  26. The handbook An overview • Chapter 6 – Data collection • Survey modes, reminder policy and training of interviewers are topics discussed within this chapter. • Data collection: designing a strategy • Primary data collection • Data collection strategy: survey techniques and communication with respondents • Determinants in designing the process of data collection • Designing the process of data collection • Pre survey: preparations and communication • Field work: collecting the data • Response enhancing measures • Organizing the data collection • Training of enumerators • Technical facilities and documents Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 25

  27. The handbook An overview • Chapter 7 – Managing sources of non-sampling errors • In chapter 7 non-sampling errors and the possible approaches to reduce errors are analysed. • Non-sampling errors • Coverage errors • Measurement and processing errors • Non-responses • Treatment of non-responses • Total non-responses • Partial non-responses 26 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  28. The handbook An overview • Chapter 8 – Processing tendency survey data • Qualitative responses have to be quantified to make them easier to interpret and to obtain time series from different survey waves. In addition, various standard methods for seasonal de-composition of time series and widely adopted solutions for ETS time series are discussed here. • Conversion of multiple choice questions into a time series • The balance statistic • Diffusion indexes • The probabilistic approach and other methods • Latest proposals for the quantification of qualitativeinformation • The “disaggregate” approach 27 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  29. The handbook An overview • Chapter 8 – Processing tendency survey data (continued) • The seasonal adjustment • Seasonal patterns in opinion survey data • General principles of seasonal adjustment of BCS data • Widely adopted solutions for seasonal adjustment 28 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  30. The handbook An overview • Chapter 9 – Data dissemination and publication • Recommendations regarding metadata and output tables are made. Strategies of publication are also discussed. • Metadata • Contact data • The methodology • Data and dissemination • Publication procedures • Variety of users • Quality criteria • Release calendar • Forms of dissemination • Confidentiality • Revisions 29 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  31. The handbook An overview • Chapter 10 – Use of tendency survey results • The most common business cycle composite indicators are presented; examples of forecasting applications, turning point detection and micro-econometric approaches are given. • Users of survey data • The use of survey data • Business cycle composite indicators • Visualizing tools • Forecasting using survey data • Consumer confidence, macroeconomic analysis and business cycle • Micro-econometric methods Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 30

  32. The Global consultation: preliminary results • A Global Consultation on the handbook was carried out during the period from 28 July 2014 to 29 August 2014 by UN. To facilitate the consultation a comment form was prepared. • A total of 62 responses were received from countries (57) and international/regional organizations (5). • Overall there was a strong support for the Handbook: the responses were extremely positive and a number of useful comments were received. 31 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  33. The Global consultation: preliminary results Summary of the responses that were received to the questions (as of 19 september) Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014 32

  34. The Global consultation: preliminary results • Summary of comments • Positive comments. The respondents noted: • the comprehensive coverage of the topics (all the phases of the statistical production processes); • the usefulness of the recommendations provided in the handbook; • the current structure of the handbook: clear, coherent and easy to follow; • 98 per cent of the respondents considered the Handbook ready for publication subject to the incorporation of the comments received through the global consultation. 33 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  35. The Global consultation: preliminary results • Summary of comments • Main suggestions of the respondents: • To include references or examples from non EU countries (not only experience from EU countries); • To elaborate the text more on issues relating to countries with poor statistical systems and poor data quality; • chapter-specific technical and editorial comments and/or proposals for revision; • relevant reference should be made to ISIC classification; • the inclusion of additional text on the calculation and interpretation of composite indicators. 34 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  36. Concluding remarks • The finalization of the handbookisexpected by 2015 after: • Incorporating all the comments from the Global Consultation and alignment the text with the UN style for publications: by end December 2014; • final review of the working group and steering group: by end January 2015; • submit final draft (subject to language editing) to the 46th session of the UN Statistical Commission. • Finalassessmentof the Working Group – UNSD on the work/experience 35 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

  37. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !!! lcrosilla@istat.it politi@istat.it 36 Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys - UN Workshop on short-term economic indicators, Hangzhou, 8 October 2014

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