An End to Evidence Based Housing Policy? LOOSE CONNECTIONS, LOOSE CANNONS

1. An End to Evidence Based Housing Policy?LOOSE CONNECTIONS, LOOSE CANNONS Duncan Maclennan Director Centre for Housing Research University of St Andrews

2. MAIN PROPOSITIONS • MAJOR FLUCTATION IN NEW RESEARCH, CRISIS OR CREATIVE DESTRUCTION? • NOT AN END TO EVIDENCE BASE ROLE, POLICY STEMS FROM BETTER CHOREOGRAPHY OF KNOWLEDGE STOCK AS WELL AS NEW DISCOVERY • THERE IS LITTLE CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN THE QUALITY OF RESEARCH AND ITS IMPACT IN POLICY • NEED TO DEVELOP A COHERENT UNDERSTANDING OF HOUSING POLICY INFLUENCING AND INNOVATION IN UK • RESEARCH CENTRES AND HSA NEED A NEW COLLABORATIVE PARADIGM THAT BUILDS NATIONAL FROM BELOW

3. STAGES IN ARGUMENT • EVIDENCE BASED POLICY BEFORE AND DURING 1995-2008 RESEARCH BOOM • THE BUST, SO FAR • CHANGING EMPHASES, A MODEL OF POLICY INFLUENCING AND INNOVATION • WHAT WE DO NOW

4. Maclennan and More 1996. Developments in housing policy and practice have been marked by strong ideological stances and a persistent unwillingness to clarify ends and means, so that key policy questions remain unresolved. Evidence can, and does, impact on policy, but only under certain conditions; for example, if it relates to a specific policy question, is restricted to the interests of a single government department and, especially, if it implies reductions in public spending. Moreover, housing’s complexity and relationship with a range of policy areas requires a linked perspective, at a local scale. A predominance of sector-specific, cross-sectional and qualitative research, allied to inadequate data impede the production of evidence to meet this challenge. Public Management and Money ( Special ISSUE on Evidence Based Policy)

5. 1.1 BEFORE THE BOOM…. Maclennan and More (1996) stressed re housing to 90’s • Ideological swings, inconstancy in policy • Concern with means rather than ends • Data and models unmatched to key questions • Emphasis on ‘social’ needs measures • Absence of cost-benefit, effectiveness, evaluation • Growing plurality of ‘demands’ different levels of government, organisations • Complex outcomes unmeasured, lost in cross sectoral debates ( health /housing, housing / economy) OPTIMISTIC ABOUT IMPROVEMENT

6. 1.2 AS BOOM UNFOLDS… Through the 1990’s • Universities reappoint staff cuts early 1980’s • Whitehall loosens up, DOE, social exclusion • Quangos (HC, SH, TC, NIHE) all fund • JRF and new roles, styles • ESRC DRC After 1997 • What works as policy mantra • EBP as ideology too! Scientism

7. 1.3…AND STRENGTHENS Doherty (2001) critiques Maclennan and More • Long run influence of data (me- but on ends) • CORE, SCORE etc all matter (me-yes, in practice) • Is ‘scientism’, implies a rational answer. Respond; • position is Humean, passion and reason • some split these two functions, see Stigler • obligation to ‘reason’ with any democratically elected government? USEFUL REMINDER NO SINGLE APPROACH SHOULD DOMINATE, ALL FREE TO CHOOSE TO COLLABORATE OR NOT, DON’T ALL EXPECT TO SUCCEED

8. 1.4 ….AND REFLECTED IN An ERA of EBP, 1996-2008 (say) • Open government, what works • Treasury EBPolicy Fund ( no housing bids?) • Rising Department External Research Budgets • Quadrupling of policy analysts in government • Advisory Panels (SEU 36), Policy Research Nets • Burgeoning of local, organisational research • Rising University posts, RAE relevance • ESRC, new demands, fewer resources: JRF UNARGUABLY A BOOM

9. 1.5 …DOES EARLIER CRITIQUE HOLD? • Aspiration about policy ends drives research agendas ( neighbourhoods, home ownership, homelessness), big research follows rather than leads policy, but also • Rise of evaluation studies: weak on technique, cf health • Failure to answer big questions; space, time multi-sector complexity of housing, unwilling to do key spadework • Qualitative research has less impact on central agencies • Continuing weak position in big policies; economy, wealth etc; neighbourhood effects; benefits of community housing; changing housing choices to greener outcomes • Policy making still inconstant ( stock transfer: 3 views in 2001) BUT from 1988 to 2010 less so; long continuities AND CLEARLY NO END TO IDEOLOGICAL SHIFTS

10. 2.1 THE BUST, SO FAR To date less than 20pc of planned 2015 cuts • DCLG, HCA, and devolved admins cuts • JRF resources • Research Staff losses, Centre Closures • Market sources reduced, organisations down But Relatively Fixed Academic Capital, so far • ESRC, UKRC…but how many housing grants? • University Posts • Emphasis on KE

11. 2.2 NEW CONTEXT MEANS New Questions • Market collapse, credit rationing, new tenure patterns • The resurgence of Market Failures • Central to ageing, environment, economy debates New Patterns of Interest and Production • Withdrawal of Central Government, But Localism • Academia and KE/T, mobilisation and co-production • REF, impact yes but does it make us More Selfish, Less cooperative • Resources for KE but not fundamental research • EU constrained, housing always strained WHAT SHOULD STILL SECURE STAFF DO?

12. PERHAPS… Evidence-based policy and practice, Winter 2012 The best argument for emphasising evidence in educational policy and practice is what happens when evidence plays no role: practice and policy swing like a pendulum from one enthusiasm to the opposite, and then back again, but no progress is made. The solution to the pendulum problem is to have a wide array of research going on at all times to create and evaluate promising solutions to longstanding problems, including teaching methods as well as policy options. 

13. 3.1 PROCESSES OF POLICY INFLUENCING, INNOVATION We focus on Research as ‘idea inventions’, we need to think more widely. • At Time t, There is a Stock Of Knowledge, Kt. • That stock may be held in the Academy, or the policy Sector, or by the public and others • Kt held by different sectors may be specialised, and have little overlap • Role of KE, KTRANS is to raise the overlap

14. 3.2 PROCESS MODEL CONTINUED • Research at any time adds Rt to Kt, a FLOW • New Research at time t may • Be added to Academic Stock, Ka • Or the Policy stock, Kp Often only added with a lag • New research may simply add to Ka, not Kp • Policy action may follow from reworked Kap • Policy action may flow from an ‘IDEA’ POLICY CAN FLOW FROM NEW CHOREOGRAPHY AND CREATIVE IDEAS , APPLIED RESEARCH WILL NOT AWAYS IMPACT. SO LOOSE CONNECTION RESEARCH AND POLICY INFLUENCE

15. 3.3 IMPACT IDEAS, CHOREOGRAPHY What Model of Policy Innovation? • What channels to choose • Direct or via policy transfer agent (JRF, Carnegie) • Aimed at bureaucrat controlled channels • Spending Ministry, Central Agency, Parliament • Aimed at politics • Parties, Special Advisers, Ministers • Know channel characteristics, costs, benefits • Consider fit with policy OUTCOMES, IMPACTS THEN RELY ON…

16. 3.3 SHAPING IMPACTS, SUPPLY On the researcher, Supply Side • Skill in messaging, willingness to align • Scanning for opportunities • Persistence • Proximity and networks ( spatial or not) • Facilities • Luck BUT ALSO DEPENDS ON DEMAND SIDE BEHAVIOUR…

17. 3.4 SHAPING IMPACTS, DEMAND WHAT INFLUENCES DEMAND? • Timing in Parliamentary cycle, year • Willingness to trust suppliers • Perceived match of policy interest and information package offered SO, NO CLEAR CORRESPONDECE BETWEEN THE EXCELLENCE OF RESEARCH OR EVEN THE TRANSFER EFFORT AND POLICY IMPACT. REF AND ESRC GUIDELINES ARE NAÏVE ECONOMICS AND POOR POLITICAL SCIENCE ( OR BAD RESEARCH WITH A BIG IMPACT!)

18. 4.1 WHAT NEXT FOR US? A Strategic approach is needed to cope with the research funding cycle with a different output mix, emphasising ‘ideas’ and K exchange and Co-production, not new Ra. HSA should lead! • Be clear on producer and preacher roles • Recognise the different kinds of knowledge we have • Blue skies, think pieces • Better quality reviews (see recent Kearns piece) • Qualitative better supported, database mining (ESRC)

19. 4.2 CALL TO ARMS, NOT TO PRAYER? • Be a forum for devolved policy divergence ( an annual policy summit) • Use localism, integrate upwards to national, Regional Network of Centres? • Use co=production with housing providers • Use near unique capacity to link to international • Make research more international, EU, BRICS • Always show why Housing Outcomes matter LETS GET UK HOUSING RESEARCH MOVING AGAIN.