MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT— RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR KENYA

1. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT—RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR KENYA Ministry of Foreign Affairs and The Africa Policy Institute c Professor Peter Kagwanja Presentation at the Conference : An analysis on the risks and opportunities for partnerships and trade

2. WHAT IS MIDDLE EAST? • Middle East and North Africa region: Geopolitically important location as the intersection of Europe, Sub Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia. • Middle East (Excluding North Africa) • International View of Middle East • Implication for Kenya’s Foreign Policy Fact-files -- Population 371 million (2010) -- area 7,207,575 km2 -- Comprises of 18 Countries • Risks: • Expansion of violent extremists: • Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) • Mass refugees that are flowing into nearby regions • Conflicts • The worsening situation in Syria and Iraq, • The tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, • The issue of Middle East Peace (Israel versus the rest), • Conflicts in Afghanistan, • Conflict in Yemen, • The Crisis in Libya.

3. Opportunities • Contains major international maritime routes for international commerce • An important supplier of energy resources, including oil and natural gas, to the rest of the world. • Emerging as frontier of business, industrialization and tourism (See Separate slide) • Interventions • 1. Cooperation to counter the expansion of violent extremism including ISIL which has not only significantly undermined peace and security in the Middle East and North Africa region but also affected the entire global society. • Need to Support the construction of inclusive societies that do not generate violent extremism. • Provided humanitarian assistance for the refugees and internally displaced persons, • Economic partnerships: Improve economic infrastructure, Development of human resources. • Condemn terrorism linked to ISIL and other organizations • Give support for the fight against terrorism in the international community.

4. 2. Address the protracted crisis in Syria • The expansion of ISIL in Syria and Iraq have caused a massive number of internally displaced persons and an influx of refugees from both countries to neighbouring countries and the European region • Increase humanitarian assistance, include support for countries like Turkey and Jordan, which have been affected by the influx of refugees from Syria). • Promote political dialogue. • 3. Support the Resumption of the Middle East Peace Process: • Urge the resumption of peace talks • Diplomacy to Support Palestine, • 4. Iranian nuclear issue: • The implementation of the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue • The U.S and the EU partially suspended or terminated sanctions against Iran. • After the final agreement, there have been efforts by many countries to further strengthen relations with Iran. • Encourage the steady implementation of the final agreement by Iran • Conclusion of the bilateral investment agreement Between Africa and Iran

5. MIDDLE EAST AND THE NEW FRONTIER OF GROWTH • 1. In recent years, the Middle East countries have achieved steady economic development: • They have a rapidly growing youth population, • A consumer market and an investment destination. • Holiday Tourism for many countries • 2. Establishing legal frameworks such as Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA), Free Trade Agreements (FTA) investment agreements, tax agreements and social security agreements which are foundations for strengthening the economic and business relationships with the Middle East countries. • 3. Learn from infrastructure projects in the region. • 4. Promote cooperation between Kenyan/African business and Middle-East business communities especially in the Four Key Pillars, sending economic delegations (industrialists, business categories, from large to medium and small enterprises).

6. THE MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES

7. 1. IRAQ • In 2016, the Iraqi security forces made remarkable progress on liberating areas controlled by “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)” • The operation has been in progress since the second half of 2016 • The liberation of major cities in northern Iraq such as Ramadi (February) Heet (April) Rutba (May) and Fallujah (June). • On 17 October, Prime Minister Abadi of Iraq declared starting operations to liberate Mosul ISIL’s largest stronghold, and the Iraqi Security Forces have been continuing its mop-up operations. • Government maintains its force with military headway against ISIL.

8. Internal Instability • Internal political conflicts and tensions have continued. • Prime Minister Abadi’s cabinet restructure is incomplete. • Cabinet ministers have resigned due to corruption. • No notable progress on national reconciliation, which is one of the major issues in Iraq. • Humanitarian Crisis • The ongoing fight against terrorism in Iraq has generated more than three million internally displaced persons in need of humanitarian assistance. • The country is in dire need of humanitarian (provision of food, water and other daily necessities to refugees as well as repairing houses). • Stabilization assistance (vocational training to assist the return of refugees to their home and settlement). • International Efforts • On 20 July, 2016: Pledging conference in support of Iraq in Washington DC, hosted by the US Secretary of State John Kerry. • The Conference’s aim was to address the serious humanitarian crisis in Iraq. • Iraq is confronting a serious financial due to factors such as the failing oil prices and the accumulating cost of war. • At the G7 Ise-Shima Summit in Japan, G7 countries collected 3.6 billion US dollars for humanitarian and stabilization assistance. • The purpose was to ensure that the financial crisis did not destabilize Iraq, which is at the forefront in the fight against terrorism.

9. 2. SYRIA: THE COMPLEX CIVIL WAR • As of the end of 2017, the Syrian crisis that started in 2011, as part of “the Arab Spring”, continued unabated. • Syria is facing perhaps the worst humanitarian crisis in the century, with more than 250,000 deaths, 4.8 million refugees, and 6.5 million internally -displaced persons. • Four competing parties within Syria are involved in continued violent conflict: • The Syrian government, • The moderate rebels, • Extremist forces including the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) • The Nusra Front and the Kurdish Forces.

10. 4. Syrian Government Forces are receiving support from Russia in the form of airstrikes and other measures. • Russian strikes have concentrated on the Northern city of Aleppo, the home of the rebels from the outset of the Syrian crisis. • The rebels virtually controlled Aleppo, but the Syrian Government Forces has regained control of almost all of Syria, • However, instability continues with ISIL reoccupying Palmyra. • In April UK, France and US launches air-strikes in Syria • 5. Several Failed cease-fires: • Cease -fire agreements were reached between the U.S and Russia in February and September 2016 • Combat temporarily subsided, but the agreement was breached and the fighting resumed. • A cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey came into effect on December 30, 2016. • But it has not been honoured by the warring parties.

11. 6 The fight against ISIL: • The fight against ASIL has involved ongoing airstrikes within Syrian territory by the U.S and others. • Progress has been made with the operation to liberate Mosul in Iraq. • The Turkish Army has fought alongside the Free Syrian Army, making inroads into Northern Syria in 2016-2017. • Kurdish forces (YekineyenParastina Gel, YPG) or the People’s Protection Units (which makes up the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces), launched operations to recapture Raqqa in Eastern Syria, which ISIL considers as its capital. • ISIL has gradually lost its power • The area in Syria under ISIL control is gradually shrinking. • But conditions remain chaotic.

12. Political Process • Dialogue between the Syrian Government and opposition groups is considered vital to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis. • Since January 2016, the UN has supported intermittent Intra-Syrian talks involving the Syrian government and rebels, often stalled by increased fighting. • Efforts by the international community towards the resumption of the Intra-Syrian talks include the activities of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG). • October 2015, ISSG convened the Summit of Foreign Ministers from the U.S , Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to include affected countries and institutions. • This framework continued into 2017, focusing on the key issues of: • - humanitarian access to the conflict area, • - a nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria, • - The establishment of a humanitarian task force and cease-fire task force. • - Japan, Australia, and the Netherlands have been included in the group

13. UN Processes • The UN Security Council failed to adopt two draft resolutions from Russia and from France and Spain on Syria in October 2016. • However, on December 19 UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2328 on protection of Aleppo civilians • The Council also adopted Resolution 2332 concerning humanitarian assistance on December 21. • On December 9, 2016, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution concerning a cease-fire in Aleppo and humanitarian assistance • On December 21, the UNGA also adopted a resolution concerning the investigation and prosecution of those responsible for the most serious crimes in Syria. • Furthermore, on December 31, UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2336 welcoming the Syrian cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey.

14. 3. IRAN • Iran is a major Shia-Muslim regional power (with about 80 million people and abundant of natural resources). • Many African countries, including Kenya, have maintained strong historical ties with Iran as a source of crude oil and a key player in the search for peace and stability in the Middle East region. • The Iranian Nuclear Issue: • Upon coming to office in August 2013, the Rouhani administration opened negotIationson the Iranian nuclear issue with the EU3 (UK, France and Germany) +3 (U.S China and Russia). • In July 2015, Rouhani announced a nuclear agreement, the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)” in Vienna. • The U.S and Europe partially suspended or terminated sanctions against Iran

15. 4. AFGHANISTAN • The National Unity Government • By the end of September 2017, the National Unity Government (NUG) marked its three years in office. • The administration was inaugurated after a power-sharing arrangement was signed between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah • . • Challenges • Repeated terrorist attacks across the country by the Taliban and ISIL-Khorasan Province • Many victims amongst the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) and the foreign troops supporting it. • Civilian victims have also increased.

16. International Efforts • The stability of Afghanistan is crucial for the stability of the International community and the peace and prosperity of the region. • The international community has committed to support the NUG. • The NATO-Warsaw Summit in July 2016 reiterated committed to continue assisting Afghanistan in the field of security; • Participants at the “Brussels Conference on Afghanistan” in October 2016 pledges $15.2 billion as development assistance until 2020. • Pressure is on Afghanistan to push reforms in areas such as corruption, depravity, and electoral reform.

17. THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

18. The State of the Peace Process • Between July 2013 and April 2014, the U.S mediation led to direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine. • But the talks failed due to a wide gap in the positions of the two sides • Under Trump, there are no signs of resumption of the Middle East peace process; • The Security Situation • The security situation in both Israel and the West Bank has been worsening since mid-2015. • Israelis and Palestinians have been involved in frequent collisions. • Distrust between the two sides persist with little indication that the peace process will resume. • Israel has continued with its settlement policy • The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip has been deteriorating.

19. International Efforts • The community has continued to press Israel and Palestine to resume the peace negotiations. • France has called for an international conference to jump-start the Middle East peace process and reaffirm the two-state solution • A ministerial-level meeting was held in mid-2016 for major countries other than Israel and Palestine, but no progress made to revive the Middle East Peace. • On December 23, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2334 demanding that Israel immediately and completely cease all settlement activities. 14 countries voted for the resolution with the U.S abstaining. • In a speech to the UNSC on December 28, U.S Secretary of State Kerry outlined a plan for the basis of future peace negotiations, but this has been scuttled by the rise of the Trump administration. • On January 15, 2017, France convened a Conference for Middle East Peace in Paris

20. 5. TURKEY • Turkey’s East-West Diplomatic Dilemma • Strategically located at the crossroads to Europe, the middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasia, Turkey is a geopolitically pivotal player in the Middle East. • Turkey is a member state of NATO. It, therefore, diplomatically leans more on the side of Europe and U.S. • It has made efforts to join EU • But it has also actively promoted multiple diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East and Africa. • The Failed Coup • A coup attempt in mid- July 2016 by factions of the Turkish army failed. in failure on July 16, and the Turkish army on July 15 ended in failure. • Turkish government declared a state of emergency claiming that FethullahGulen, the leader of an Islamist movement in Turkey who is currently living in exile in the U.S, was behind the incident. • Dismissals and monitoring of persons in the army, security authorities and public servants, who are mainly said to have connections to Gulen continue.

21. The Turkey-Syria Relations: • Relations between Turkey and Syria have deteriorated under the Assad Administration, especially in the wake of the Syrian civil war in 2011. • Turkey is hosting about three million from Syria, the world’s largest recipient of refugees from the Syrian civil war. • Turkey’s tensions with Western countries and neighbouring countries have grown over the fight against ISIL and response to the refugee crisis. • Turkey-Israeli Relations • In June 2016, Turkey normalized relations with Israel. • Relations between the two powers deteriorated in May 2010 when the Israel army confronted ships transporting aid to the Gaza Strip. • Turkey has also made efforts to normalize relations with Russia, which had deteriorated following the downing of a Russian fighter jet in November 2015.

22. 6. JORDAN AND LEBANON • Jordan and Lebanon • Jordan has remained relatively stable in the turbulent Middle East region. • This has enabled it to played a pivotal role in the search for regional peace. • It is active in the fight against extremists • Jordan has received a number of Syrian refugees; • It is also active involvement in the Middle East Peace process. • The country’s role is highly appreciated by the international community. • Lebanon • Lebanon is a complex nation with 18 religions and religious sects, including Christianity and Islam. • General elections were supposed to be held in Lebanon in 2013. • However, the failure of Parliament in electing a new President, two thirds of the body extended its own term until 2017 then 2018.

23. For two and a half years between May 2014 when President Suleiman stepped down and October 2016, the position of President remained vacant due to fights between sects and political forces over a successor • The crisis was perceived to arise from the ongoing situation in the Syrian Civil War where both sides have major Lebanese parties as allies. • The deadlock ended with the election of the former leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (AOUN) as President. • Lebanon is greatly affected by the deteriorating situation in Syria and the expansion of ISIL. • Stability in Lebanon is the key to the stability and prosperity of the Middle East. • Lebanon is hosting Syrian refugees who, together with the host communities, need humanitarian aid.

24. THE MIDDLE EAST/ NORTH AFRICA

25. 6. EGYPT • Egypt has played a key role in the stability of the Middle East and North Africa. • Egypt has been in a state of unease since former President Hosni Mubarak was toppled during the Arab Spring in 2011. • President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took power after the July 2013 coup that led to the removal of President Mohammad Morsi.  • Militant Islamic groups, including the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, operate in the Sinai Peninsula, • Revolutionary groups such as the Popular Resistance Movement and HarakatSawaid Masr. • Islamic State rose within the Sinai Peninsula  • The threat of terrorism and political violence has been very high • Al-Sisi is taking initiatives in security policies and economic reforms on the Sinai Peninsula.

26. 7. Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco • Maghreb is at the crossroads to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and has shared history, culture and language. • The region has great potential as a source of energy resources such as oil. • But it is attracting foreign fighters from Iraq and Syria • Since the removal of Gaddafi Libya has been unstable, having fallen into a situation of serious conflict among several groups rooted in tribes and has experienced security deterioration. • A national unity government of three factions exists based on a UN-brokered political agreement. • The security situation has been relatively calm in Tunisia, which has achieved a transition to democracy, but the country is facing the challenge of economic reform. • But the Libyan situation also has an influence and ensuring security remains an important issue. • Algeria and Morocco continue to have stable governments. The two countries make efforts to contribute to peace and stability in the region by mediating the domestic confrontations in Libya and Mali. • In addition, Morocco was approved to re-join the African Union in January. Close attention is being paid to future trends such as the unification of Maghreb.

27. 8. SIX GULF COUNTRIES (THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE), OMAN, QATAR, KUWAIT, SAUDI ARABIA, AND BAHRAIN • The Gulf countries of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain are stabilizing forces of the region, a source of energy (oil) but also a frontier of extremist groups such as al-Qaeda. • Saudi Arabia and several Arab states cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016. • Yemen peace talks stalled with the increasing number of civilian casualties. • Decline in their annual revenue due to low oil prices since 2014.

28. 9. YEMEN • Since 2015, Yemeni government forces, supported by the Arab coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia has been fighting rebel forces such as Houthi insurgents. • In April 2016, peace talks resumed in Kuwait following a cease-fire, no agreement was reached, and fighting has intensified. • Mediation efforts by the UN and relevant parties (the U.S., the UK and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have not bore fruits. • Protracted conflict has resulting in one of the world’s worst humanitarian situations.

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