Outline

1. Forest Tenure, Governance and Emerging Global ChallengesArvind Khare, Andy White, Augusta Molnar, William SunderlinConference on Challenges for Land Policy and AdministrationWorld bank,Washington DC, 14 February 2008

2. Outline • Introduction - Shift from MDGs to Security - Underlying problems remain same - Convergence in Forest landscapes 2. Key Forces Shaping Future Options and Opportunities • Growth of Global Economy • Energy: Big Changes and Big Unknowns • Forest Industry and Trade • Convergence of Food, Fuel and Fiber • Climate Change: More Heat and More Uncertainty • Challenges Facing Forests and People - Human, Civil and Property Rights - Poverty in Forest Areas - Violent Conflicts in Forest Landscapes - Forest Conservation and Forest Refugees - Forests and Economic Growth 4. Way Forward

3. Introduction • MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of security – energy, national, environmental (climate and water) • Problems behind MDG’s are same (in many cases) as those behind insecurity – political marginalization, poverty, inequity, lack of respect for human rights and democratic processes • Challenges converging on 30% of earth’s surface that is considered “forest” – poor and poorly governed • Rights and democratic governance – not only moral imperative but social and economic, and ecological imperative

4. Growth of BRICS and Global Demand • BRICS driving Global Growth: • BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040 • $55 trillion global GDP today, near $80 trillion by 2020, $150 trillion by 2100? • Growth in demand for commodities • Food to double by 2020 • Meat by 50% • Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel and gold tripled and copper quadrupled since 2001 • Land required for food alone would 3 billion ha (without  in productivity Global Economics: Goldman Sachs. 2003

5. Energy: Big Changes, Big Unknowns Projected world biofuels consumption(MToe) • By 2030 Demand for energy  50% • Biofuels – increase in investment, consumption and area • Brazil – 4.5 million ha by 2016, oil palm in tropics – up by 5.5 million ha in last 10 years • 100 million Toe of biofuels = 35 million ha Global Biofuels Financings: Q1/05-Q1/07 Source: OECD/IEA (2006).

6. Forest Industry and Trade • Growth in demand for forest products in developing countries; • Industrial wood consumption to reach 1.85 billion cu m by 2020 • Continued demand for fuelwood and charcoal in many parts of the world • Tight demand and supply situation • Increase in price of wood and land (Uruguay)

7. Convergence of Food, Fuel and Wood Fiber Markets Source: Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World Markets • Key food, fuel and fiber prices have been on an upward trend. Is there any causation, or just correlation? • With biofuel production spreading, will the world price for oil become a support price for farm and forest products?

8. Climate Change: More Heat and More uncertainty • Climate Change – UNFCC (Kyoto) – CDM • Carbon Markets – Public forests or large plantations • Bringing governments back to the table, robust national, global regimes are inevitable but without clarity of rights and benefits more conflicts in forest landscapes • UNFCCC’s proposed forest mechanism (REDD, carbon markets, PES) – no discussion of local rights, equity and legitimacy Prevalent models of forest governance neither equipped to deal with the pressure emanating from converged markets nor or prepared to adopt complex trading schemes

9. Extensive Poverty; Slow/No Growth • extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas • “bottom billion” – 58 countries “falling apart and falling behind” (P. Collier ’07) • ½ “bottom billion” are “forest rich” • “growth” located in urban, coastal areas • “forest rich” countries doing significantly worse

10. Economic Growth: ITTO Producer Countries Fare Worse Than Rest of Developing World – Why? • Clues from economic literature: • concentration of “rents” – “point source” problem • focus on export of primary commodities • growth comes from: • diffuse production systems (now often illegal) • returns to scale (SMEs) (now heavily constrained) • diversification of exports (now often discouraged)

11. Forests and Governance No conclusive correlation between the forest cover in a country and its score on a governance indicator. Source: World Bank “Governance Matters” 2007. This dataset includes indicators for 6 dimensions of governance: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.

12. Governance: ITTO Countries Fare Worse than Other Developing Countries The ITTO producer countries score lower in all categories, and for the 3 represented above, this difference is statistically significant (.05 double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it is not merely the presence of forest, but of a large export-oriented forest industry that is correlated to poor governance performances.

13. What has industrial/trade model wrought? • Among the 33 ITTO producer countries: • 27 (81%) are more prone to political instability than countries with similar income levels. • 72% of them have lower respect for the rule of law than countries in the same income category. • 70% of them have a higher corruption rate than countries within the same GDP range. Both Trade and Aid models need to be revamped Where have we been investing? ITTO – industrial concession model; WB – industrial concession model – Cambodia, Africa; IDB, ADB – same. Bilaterals – “social” forestry, trust funds to Banks.

14. In the past twenty years 30 countries in the tropical regions of the world have experienced significant conflict between armed groups in forest areas. Source: D.Kaimowitz ETFRN NEWS 43/44 Continued threat and changing nature of violent conflict – in forested countries

15. Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990Doris Capistrano, Ruben de Koning, Yurdi Yasmi • 9% of all forest, 20 % of forest in the tropics threatened, spread over 29 countries. • Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127 million forest dwellers potentially affected live in Asia. • BUT WHERE DOES THE FOREST COME IN? • Good news: armed conflicts are declining. • Bad news: human rights violations continue at the same rate.

16. Role of the Forest and Forest Rights • In 15 of 25 forest was used as cover (Sierra Leone, Myanmar). • In 7 of 15 armed groups used forest for finance (Liberia, Cambodia). • In 9 out of 25 countries disputed forest access/ownership added to grievances that motivated armed conflict (Philippines, Mexico). • Equally, disputed tenure underlies about 40 % of localised low intensity forest related conflicts (118 Cases across the globe).

17. Implications • We’re not equipped to deal with past problems, much less current crises • Rethink what forest “development” is doing: • Focus on development in forest areas not on forests; • Reconsider models of trade and aid in forests • Reconsider the conservation models • Engage emerging global/national regime on climate change • Get beyond “the forest sector” – engage ministries that will shape the future (land, energy, trade)

18. Build on, strengthen, what’s new and what’s working • Civil society is growing in strength and capacity • (Some) governments are increasingly open to reforms • Increasing market opportunity for small-scale enterprises – leading to Growth • Conservation organizations are reconsidering human rights and rethinking approaches • New development approaches, partnerships emerging (e.g. VPAs) More of the same will not work – x ha of Pas, Y ha of certified forests etc.

19. For those who care about rural people and forests - situation never so daunting, opportunity for a dramatic difference never so great- We must do things differently www.rightsandresources.org