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1. Motivation

Convection Activities Over the Bay of Bengal and Severe Flooding Events Over the Southern China in June Haiming Xu Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, NUIST Collaborators: Xiaolin Xu, and Dong Si Oct. 31~Nov. 3, Boulder, USA. 1. Motivation.

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1. Motivation

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  1. Convection Activities Over the Bay of Bengal and Severe Flooding Events Over the Southern China in June Haiming Xu Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, NUIST Collaborators: Xiaolin Xu, and Dong Si Oct. 31~Nov. 3, Boulder, USA

  2. 1. Motivation A severe flooding event occurred over the southern China in June 2005, and brought large economic losses. It was reported that this flooding event killed 75 people, and caused 5.97 billion RMB yuan economic losses (National Climate Center).

  3. Objective: ●Any large-scale circulation anomalies over the tropical and subtropical regions? ●What cause these circulation anomalies ? ●Any common features for flooding events in the southern China?

  4. Percentage (%) of rainfall anomalies in June, 2005. (From National Climate Center) Total rainfall (mm) in June, 2005 (From National Climate Center)

  5. Total rainfall during the heavy rainfall event from 17 to 25 June, 2005 A heavy rainfall event occurs over the South China from June 17 to June 25, 2005 Long Men (1300.2 mm)、He Yuan (780.5 mm)、Shan Wei (471.7 mm)，Tai Ning (571.9 mm)、Bing Nan (559.5 mm)、Jian Ou (552.1mm)

  6. 2. Data • Datasets used here include: • Monthly and daily mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, on a 2.5×2.5 grid , available since 1958. • Daily and monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), on a 2.5×2.5 grid, available since 1975. • Monthly Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product available from January 1998 to December 2005 on a 0.25º grid (Wentz et al. 2000). • Observed daily precipitation over the Southern China from 1976 to 2005 (45 weather stations)

  7. 3. Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies Geopotential Height at 500hPa H H June, 2005 Climatology ( 1958~2005) The western North Pacific subtropical high in June 2005 is much strong and shifts westward

  8. OLR Anomalies in June, 2005.（05－7505） Monthly Mean OLR in June, 2005 Anomaly Convection Activities Over the Bay of Bengal in June, 2005.

  9. Effects of an anomaly heating over the bay of Bengal on precipitation over the South China in June: A numerical study + + A – A C + Rainfall anomalies (EXPA-CTL) Wind anomalies at 300 hPa (EXPA-CTL) (Xu et al., 1997，Journal of Tropical Meteorology)

  10. Effects of SSTA in Tropical Atlantic TRMM Precipitation Anomalies（mm/d） TRMM SSTA（ºC） May May June June

  11. Wind anomalies at 500hPa in June, 2005 A C C A A C C C C A A A A The anomaly tropical circulation over the Indo-Pacific is possible related to this La Nina-like event, the latter probably affects the former via a two-dimension Rossby wavetrain forced by the La Nina-related SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic.

  12. 4. Short-term Variation for the June 17~25 Case Time-longitude section of OLR along 10~15ºN Section of geopotential height at 500hPa along 10~20ºN Time BOB SCS Strong convection occurs over the Bay of Bengal, followed by an enhancement and westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high

  13. Convection activities over the Bay of Bengal lead the western subtropical Pacific high enhancement by 2~3 days － －－western Pacific ———— Bay of Bengal OLR over the Bay of Bengal (10ºN-20ºN,85ºE-100ºE, solid) , and over the western Pacific (10ºN-20ºN,110ºE-125ºE, dashed)

  14. Zonal vertical circulation, averaged between 10º N and 20ºN June 13~14 June 18~20 June 23~24 June 21~22 Convection activities over the Bay of Bengal interact with the western Pacific subtropical high through a zonally vertical cell

  15. 5. Composite Analysis • Nine severe flooding events are selected from 1976 to 2005, based on the following criteria: • At least 1 out 45 stations in the southern China have daily rainfall > 50 mm and at least last for 5 days; • Total stations with daily rainfall >50 mm are greater than 20, during the period of flooding event. 9 severe flooding events from 1976 to 2005

  16. Composite geopotential height at 500 hPa（10gpm） Years for severe flooding events H Years without severe flooding events H

  17. OLR Anomalies (years with flooding events minus years without flooding events) Composite OLR for years with flooding events Anomaly convection over the Bay of Bengal for years with flooding events over the Southern China in June.

  18. Composite geopotential height and winds at 500hPa －6d －2d ＋2d －8 －4 0 H H H H H H H

  19. Composite OLR Day -4 -2 0 Day -3 -1 +1

  20. Days After Time-longitude cross section of composite 500hPa geopotential height at 15~20ºN Before After Time-longitude section of composite OLR at 12.5~17.5ºN Before

  21. Convection activities over the Bay of Bengal are associated with the western Pacific high via a zonal vertical cell －2d －4d 0d ＋2d Zonally vertical anomaly cell along 10°N~20°N

  22. 5. Summary ★ The development of flooding events in the Southern China is associated with abnormal tropical circulations over the Indo-Pacific which are characterized by an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high with its position shifting westward, and anomaly convection activities over the Bay of Bengal. ★ Strong convection activities over the Bay of Bengal interact with the western Pacific subtropical high through a zonally vertical cell, and thus leading to the formation of this severe precipitation event. ★ For the Case in 2005. In May and June 2005, a La Nina-like event also occurred in the eastern Atlantic, The anomaly tropical circulations over the Indo-Pacific is possibly related to the La Nina-like event in the tropical Atlantic, the latter probably affects the former via a two-dimension Rossby wavetrain forced by the La Nina-related SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic.

  23. Thank you for your attention!

  24. Delayed Effects of SSTA in Indian Ocean TRMM SSTA（ºC） TRMM Precipitation Anomalies (mm/d) May May June June

  25. Time- latitude section of winds at 850hPa along 115ºE South China South China Sea With the western Pacific high increasing in its intensity and shifting westward, a LLJ occurs over the South China Sea and migrates northward

  26. Wind anomalies at 500 hPa A C C A A C

  27. Geopotential height difference at 500 hPa Geopotential high difference at 500 hPa between the years with and without heavy flooding events. Shade denotes regions where the differences pass the two-side T student test at 0.05 significant level.

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