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Student-Teacher Supply and Demand Model (February 7-8, 2013)

Student-Teacher Supply and Demand Model (February 7-8, 2013). Lange Research and Evaluation, Inc. b.lange@langeresearch.com. Purpose Today. What is the LRE Student-Teacher S&D Model? Policy and Practice Planning and Implementation R esource Who Can B enefit F rom U sing the Model?

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Student-Teacher Supply and Demand Model (February 7-8, 2013)

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  1. Student-Teacher Supply and Demand Model (February 7-8, 2013) Lange Research and Evaluation, Inc. b.lange@langeresearch.com

  2. Purpose Today • What is the LRE Student-Teacher S&D Model? • Policy and Practice Planning and Implementation Resource • Who Can Benefit From Using the Model? • Model Predictions: How Many Students Can We Expect? • Model Predictions: How Many Teachers Will We Need? • Model Predictions: Where Will the Teachers Come From? • Model Predictions: Is There A Teacher Shortage? • Model Predictions: What’s the $ Bottom Line? • What If…..

  3. Who Can Benefit From Using the LRE S&D Student-Teacher Model? LEA and SEA SPED and GenEd Administrators Staff Developers IHE Planners State Government Planners

  4. What Data Do We Need? • Mostly - Data We Already Have • Teacher Data • Student Enrollment Data • Pipeline Data from IHEs • Revenue Data • Expenditure Data

  5. How Many Students Can We Expect? Demographics – CACTUS What About Spikes?

  6. How Many Teachers Will We Need? Total Teachers Model New Teachers Model What Do We Know? Utah S&D Survey

  7. Total Teachers—The Easy Part Student Enrollment Model Student-Teacher/Case Loading Inputs

  8. New Teachers—The Bigger Challenge • Teacher Attrition—Modeling Human Behavior • Best predictor of future behavior is… • Age • Experience • Early Career • Mid-Career • Late Career • Urban-Rural • Location • Subject/Students

  9. Teacher Shortages/Excesses • Is There A Teacher Shortage or Excess? • It Depends… • Teacher Preparation • To Recruit or To Retain, That Is the Question.

  10. What’s The Bottom Line? • Teacher Labor • Salary • Benefits • Annual Increases • Total Expenditures • PPE – Per Pupil Expenditures • Bottom Line - $

  11. What If Economic Realities Change Class Sizes/Case Loadings Are Different Enrollment Changes Direction Teachers Retire Older We Hire More Mid-Career Teachers We Can’t Find Enough Teachers? What If…..

  12. Best Case/Likely Case/Worst Case Some Things Go Better Than Anticipated Things Go Pretty Much As Anticipated Perfect Storm!

  13. Student-Teacher Supply and Demand Model (February 7-8, 2013) Lange Research and Evaluation, Inc. b.lange@langeresearch.com

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