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Population numbers and global sustainability Stephen Bown, University C ollege London

Population numbers and global sustainability Stephen Bown, University C ollege London. Malmesbury School and Bath University Global Connection Conference Friday 5 th July 2012. HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE THERE IN THE WORLD TODAY?. 7,100,000,000!!!

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Population numbers and global sustainability Stephen Bown, University C ollege London

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  1. Population numbers and global sustainabilityStephen Bown, University College London Malmesbury School and Bath University Global Connection Conference Friday 5th July 2012

  2. HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE THERE IN THE WORLD TODAY? 7,100,000,000!!! This number is increasing by more than 1.5 million per week - about 9000 more mouths to feed during the course of this one hour workshop

  3. Population growth through the ages 170 million to 7 billion! (X40 increase in 2000 years) One dot = 1 million people Each dot = 1 million people

  4. Should we worry about these figures? • What will happen if we do nothing? • Should we do something? • If we should, what should we do? THE AIM OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE BASIC FACTS AND TO MAKE YOU THINK ABOUT THEM AND THE IMPLICATIONS

  5. What determines how many people the Earth can support? • What we eat and drink On a vegetarian diet, much larger numbers can be fed • What we do How restrained we are in the use of irreplaceable resources • The balance between humans and all other animal and plant life In the natural balance of nature, any major changes, we make at our peril

  6. How many people can the planet support? Global Footprint Network www.footprintnetwork.org/

  7. Ecological Footprints and Biocapacity(global hectares per person, 1961-2009) UK Mali China USA www.footprintnetwork.org/

  8. This is all about sustainability We want a good quality of life for everyone, now and for future generations. We want every child to be wanted, healthy, well educated, happy and to have a rewarding life and to be able to anticipate the same for their own children • The way the human race is acting at present, this dream is at risk, due largely to: • OVER CONSUMPTION OF LIMITED RESOURCES and TOO MANY PEOPLE

  9. Threats to our environment Two sides of the same coin per no. of person persons

  10. World population – past and future(UNDESA) 16 billion 10 billion 6 billion

  11. What about the UK?(UK ONS – Office for National Statistics) DOES IT MATTER? YouGov poll in 201180% said yes.

  12. What affects animal population sizes? • Food availability • Disease prevalence • Predation • Procreation level Animal populations stabilise at sustainable levels, but often explode and collapse

  13. Are humans different? • Are we subject to the same constraints FAMINE, DISEASE, WAR • Or can we rise above these limits through human ingenuity? • Are we upsetting the balance of nature? • Why is the climate changing?

  14. Perhaps there are some desirable aspects…..

  15. What are more people and over consumptiondoing to the following: Water supplies Agricultural land area and food supplies Fish stocks (freshwater and sea) Biodiversity and wild life habitats Oil, coal and gas reserves Mineral and plant resources Weather and the climate

  16. NOW IT’S TIME FOR YOU TO THINK Divide into small groups to discuss ways of making consumption and population sustainable on our finite planet Consumption: how to make limited resources go further • Group 1: Food and water • Group 2: Energy and technology Population – how to encourage fewer births • Group 3: Family and cultural considerations • Group 4: Government policies

  17. so where are we now? • The world population is slowly stabilising, but to a level where it would be difficult to maintain a good quality of life for all • With appropriate motivation, the stable number can be reduced • This requires reducing the number of children being born

  18. el Population Growth • “The elephant in the room….. ….that nobody talks about”

  19. We have identified ways in which the effects of over population and over consumption might be addressed The key question now is how these options might be implemented! How many people will be willing to reduce their consumption or have fewer children than they would like for the sake of sustainability on Mother Earth?

  20. Ignoring over population is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic

  21. What actions are likely to be most useful? Education. Men and women need to understand the consequences of large families and over consumption. Overcome the “MAD TABOO” of not talking about population Contraceptive advice and supplies should be available and affordable (preferably free) to all who want them Every woman should have the right to determine how many children she has, but she must also accept the responsibility to society and to the earth for each child that is born.

  22. “Contraception should be used on every conceivable occasion” There are plenty of options!

  23. Good guideline: 2 offspring, replace the parents We all love children – we want them to be healthy, happy, well educated and to live in a sustainable world. It can only happen if population and consumption are stabilised

  24. Decline in Total Fertility Rate (average number of children per woman) in Nations with Well Organized Family Planning Programmes(UNDESA) Good education; Contraceptives available & affordable; Misinformation/fatalism reduced

  25. Biodiversity loss Biodiversity loss

  26. People and the Planet(report by the Royal Society) Rapid and widespread changes in the world’s human population, coupled with unprecedented levels of consumption present profound challenges to human health and wellbeing, and the natural environment.

  27. Good news from the top: Will and Kate Prince William reveals wish for two children The Duke of Cambridge has reportedly revealed he would like to have two children with his wife. Prince William made the comment when asked how many children he would like, during the second day of the couple's Diamond Jubilee tour to Singapore. A teenager at one walkabout said the prince had responded by saying "he was thinking about having two". Source: BBC 12 September 2012 SafeSearch on

  28. Supplementary slides providing further information on population growth and the consequences Further information for schools can be found on the Population Matters Website; www.populationmatters.org

  29. “The Tragedy of the Commons” EACH farmer thinks it better FOR HIS FAMILY to put yet another cow on the disappearing grass. Until…. all the grass goes and all the cows die!

  30. Population policies - Iran • Declaration that Islam favoured families with only two children". • Introduced free contraceptives - pills, condoms, IUDs, implants, tubal ligations, and vasectomies, including mobile teams. • Birth control classes required before a couple could get married. • After the third child, withdrew food coupons, paid maternity leave, and social welfare subsidies. • Population growth fell from 3% a year between 1956 and 1986 to 0.7% a year by 2007. • Was Iran right or wrong?

  31. Population policies - China • Before the one child policy, there was a sharp reduction from more than five births per woman in the early 1970s to 2.5 in 1980. • One third of population is subject to the one-child policy. • Violators are fined and may lose their work bonus. • The fertility rate fell from 2.63 births in 1980 to 1.61 in 2009 • However, the policy itself is probably only partially responsible for the reduction in the total fertility rate. • Criticisms: Was such a draconian approach required? Is it fairly applied? Were there human rights abuses? Was the preference for boys worsened? Do single children lose out? • Was China right or wrong?

  32. TFR changes Mao: “Every mouth has two hands” 1970 “Later Longer Fewer” Iran 1979 China

  33. NIGERIA 2008 55% say they never intend to use contraception. Total fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman, and the women think 7 children is ideal. The men think 9 children is the ideal number. Only 0.2% of Nigerians say they don't use contraceptives because services are not there. Overcoming this situation takes more than access to contraceptive services. It requires helping people understand the personal benefits in health and welfare for them and their children of limiting and spacing births. • See: www.populationmedia.com

  34. Awareness of over population and the need for contraceptives has been raised in many sub-Saharan countries through story lines on local radio soaps www.populationmedia.org

  35. Population growth is a significant factor in essentially all the major environmental problems we face today

  36. FACTS, NOT OPINIONS....

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